How much does Alsobrooks over-perform polls tell us about polls of Blacks supporting Trump?

[David Hume]

Trone lead Alsobrooks by large margin in the vast majority of the polls until the two very last ones. Alsobrooks ended up beating him by 10.6%. This makes me think that polls are hard to reach Blacks.

It is possible that the Blacks polled are more pro Trump or anti Biden than the electorate. The answer rate is at ~1%. Those who are very disappointed about the current situation are more likely to answer to voice their frustration.

Moreover, in most polls, D senate incumbents did much better than Biden. I think this betrays  their true partisanship. They said they are not voting for Biden out of protest. They may come back once the election are close, and when the Biden campaign starts to invest more.

[DaleCooper]

Pretty much all of the polls this year have been contradicted by every notable election since the start of 2022. There's really no way around this. We can talk a bunch of sh-t about the "generic" ballot, but almost every single time a named Republican candidate is up against a named Democrat, the Democrat has won or at least over-performed. Is Sisolak the only Democrat of note to lose since the Youngkin mess back in 2021 (when Trump was the least visible he's been in the last ten years)? Downballot Republicans have not been this weak in my lifetime. Obviously more of them lost in 2006-2008, but that was when they had no hope of winning. If Biden is as hated as the polls say he is then Democrats should have been losing across the board these past couple years.

 

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Pretty much all of the polls this year have been contradicted by every notable election since the start of 2022. There's really no way around this. We can talk a bunch of sh-t about the "generic" ballot, but almost every single time a named Republican candidate is up against a named Democrat, the Democrat has won or at least over-performed. Is Sisolak the only Democrat of note to lose since the Youngkin mess back in 2021 (when Trump was the least visible he's been in the last ten years)? Downballot Republicans have not been this weak in my lifetime. Obviously more of them lost in 2006-2008, but that was when they had no hope of winning. If Biden is as hated as the polls say he is then Democrats should have been losing across the board these past couple years.

 

I don't think people are willing to admit it but I feel like the country has depolarized significantly in the last few years. It's not at the point where Hogan can win in Maryland baring a miracle, but I could absolutely buy Biden doing far worse than downballot Democrats. Maybe not 10 pts worse, but around half of that is certainly possible.

[David Hume]

Pretty much all of the polls this year have been contradicted by every notable election since the start of 2022. There's really no way around this. We can talk a bunch of sh-t about the "generic" ballot, but almost every single time a named Republican candidate is up against a named Democrat, the Democrat has won or at least over-performed. Is Sisolak the only Democrat of note to lose since the Youngkin mess back in 2021 (when Trump was the least visible he's been in the last ten years)? Downballot Republicans have not been this weak in my lifetime. Obviously more of them lost in 2006-2008, but that was when they had no hope of winning. If Biden is as hated as the polls say he is then Democrats should have been losing across the board these past couple years.

 

I don't think people are willing to admit it but I feel like the country has depolarized significantly in the last few years. It's not at the point where Hogan can win in Maryland baring a miracle, but I could absolutely buy Biden doing far worse than downballot Democrats. Maybe not 10 pts worse, but around half of that is certainly possible.

Congressional R overperformed Trump in the vast majority of cases in both 2016 and 2020.

[DaleCooper]

Pretty much all of the polls this year have been contradicted by every notable election since the start of 2022. There's really no way around this. We can talk a bunch of sh-t about the "generic" ballot, but almost every single time a named Republican candidate is up against a named Democrat, the Democrat has won or at least over-performed. Is Sisolak the only Democrat of note to lose since the Youngkin mess back in 2021 (when Trump was the least visible he's been in the last ten years)? Downballot Republicans have not been this weak in my lifetime. Obviously more of them lost in 2006-2008, but that was when they had no hope of winning. If Biden is as hated as the polls say he is then Democrats should have been losing across the board these past couple years.

 

I don't think people are willing to admit it but I feel like the country has depolarized significantly in the last few years. It's not at the point where Hogan can win in Maryland baring a miracle, but I could absolutely buy Biden doing far worse than downballot Democrats. Maybe not 10 pts worse, but around half of that is certainly possible.

I agree Biden will do worse, but this supposed depolarization seems to have only gone one way post Youngkin, and I don't think it's a coincidence that 2021 was the least visible Trump has been in the past decade. It's not like credible Republican challengers were putting up a fight in safe D states while popular incumbent Democrats won safe R states. Republicans just did pretty bad or at best mediocre across the board except in New York, and I suppose Florida but I don't really care about Florida.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Pretty much all of the polls this year have been contradicted by every notable election since the start of 2022. There's really no way around this. We can talk a bunch of sh-t about the "generic" ballot, but almost every single time a named Republican candidate is up against a named Democrat, the Democrat has won or at least over-performed. Is Sisolak the only Democrat of note to lose since the Youngkin mess back in 2021 (when Trump was the least visible he's been in the last ten years)? Downballot Republicans have not been this weak in my lifetime. Obviously more of them lost in 2006-2008, but that was when they had no hope of winning. If Biden is as hated as the polls say he is then Democrats should have been losing across the board these past couple years.

 

I don't think people are willing to admit it but I feel like the country has depolarized significantly in the last few years. It's not at the point where Hogan can win in Maryland baring a miracle, but I could absolutely buy Biden doing far worse than downballot Democrats. Maybe not 10 pts worse, but around half of that is certainly possible.

I agree Biden will do worse, but this supposed depolarization seems to have only gone one way post Youngkin, and I don't think it's a coincidence that 2021 was the least visible Trump has been in the past decade. It's not like credible Republican challengers were putting up a fight in safe D states while popular incumbent Democrats won safe R states. Republicans just did pretty bad or at best mediocre across the board except in New York, and I suppose Florida but I don't really care about Florida.

People seem to forget about this but in September 2021, Newsom won the California recall by a large margin, surpassing expectations, and was considered a major blow for the GOP. In fact, many claimed that Newsom was able to successfully link Larry Elder to Trump and cruise through to survive on that alone. For the majority of 2021, it was actually pretty bleak for the GOP until Youngkin's win.

[wnwnwn]

It tells us that Trone wasn´t popular. That´s it.

[SnowLabrador]

Nothing. You can't equate primaries to general elections.