Long Island - Siena - Trump +3

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/cinyc9/status/1794054055871820269?t=B5qamr0sM6DyLvAIrXcpNQ&a...

[The Mikado]

Are they defining Long Island literally (i.e. including Queens and Brooklyn) or colloquially (just Nassau and Suffolk)?

If the former, that's ridiculous. If the latter, that's actually pretty decent for Biden.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Are they defining Long Island literally (i.e. including Queens and Brooklyn) or colloquially (just Nassau and Suffolk)?

If the former, that's ridiculous. If the latter, that's actually pretty decent for Biden.

Decent for Biden ? It's a 7 point swing compared to 2020.


https://twitter.com/cinyc9/status/1794078182775083261?t=RAm0Zuv6TENnn0AHS3OLvA&a...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trash polls Gillibrand is gonna easily win reelection

[heatcharger]

We’re at the point where a 7-point swing to TRUMP in New York feels underwhelming.

[Skill and Chance]

Are they defining Long Island literally (i.e. including Queens and Brooklyn) or colloquially (just Nassau and Suffolk)?

If the former, that's ridiculous. If the latter, that's actually pretty decent for Biden.

Decent for Biden ? It's a 7 point swing compared to 2020.


https://twitter.com/cinyc9/status/1794078182775083261?t=RAm0Zuv6TENnn0AHS3OLvA&a...

Astronaut #1:"The PV is about Trump +1"

Astronaut #2: "Always has been"

[iceman]

Are they defining Long Island literally (i.e. including Queens and Brooklyn) or colloquially (just Nassau and Suffolk)?

If the former, that's ridiculous. If the latter, that's actually pretty decent for Biden.

Decent for Biden ? It's a 7 point swing compared to 2020.


https://twitter.com/cinyc9/status/1794078182775083261?t=RAm0Zuv6TENnn0AHS3OLvA&a...

all of these crosstabs gang would spin every poll, no matter how horrible they are as good for Biden.

[Roronoa D. Law]

We’re at the point where a 7-point swing to TRUMP in New York feels underwhelming.

Well this would be ground zero for a good performance for Trump in NY. Long Island is more than just the North Shore and the East Hamptons.

[The Mikado]

We’re at the point where a 7-point swing to TRUMP in New York feels underwhelming.

Well this would be ground zero for a good performance for Trump in NY. Long Island is more than just the North Shore and the East Hamptons.

Pretty much this, if Long Island is swinging Trump by 7, New York as a whole is probably only swinging like +3 or 4 to Trump rather than the +15 or so people are out claiming because this is the area that's going GOP hardest.

Look at 2022, Long Island is clearly the area the GOP is improving in most in basically the entire country. That's what I mean when I say Long Island Trump by 3 fine. Biden's still winning Nassau on those numbers. NY-04 can still easily flip D.

[EastwoodS]

We’re at the point where a 7-point swing to TRUMP in New York feels underwhelming.

Well this would be ground zero for a good performance for Trump in NY. Long Island is more than just the North Shore and the East Hamptons.

Pretty much this, if Long Island is swinging Trump by 7, New York as a whole is probably only swinging like +3 or 4 to Trump rather than the +15 or so people are out claiming because this is the area that's going GOP hardest.

Look at 2022, Long Island is clearly the area the GOP is improving in most in basically the entire country. That's what I mean when I say Long Island Trump by 3 fine. Biden's still winning Nassau on those numbers. NY-04 can still easily flip D.

Trump is likely to get huge gains in NYC

[Rubensim]

They told us trump rally in the bronx would do nothing
This is just a another W in the 2024 trump campaign, huge gains huge.

[DrScholl]

It's moronic to say there is a "swing" by compared real results to polling. The actual election results aren't likely to look like 43-40. Polling is polling, real results are real results.

[2016]

They told us trump rally in the bronx would do nothing
This is just a another W in the 2024 trump campaign, huge gains huge.

I'd like to have some COVID Accountability in the next Administration but with Biden or Trump we're probably never going to get that. Dr. Fauci should be in prison. Trump & Biden committed massive atrocities on COVID and it's all going to be swept under the carpet.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

They poll silly Long Island where Gillibrand is gonna easily win and not give us a NH Gov poll that is obnoxious

[dspNY]

Since Long Island has swung harder right than the rest of NY state, I can make a couple of inferences.

1. NY is not a 9 point race, more like 15. Still a significant shift right but nowhere near competitive.
2. Trump won LI by half a point while losing the NPV by 2 in 2016. COVID hurt Trump a lot here in 2020. LI is generally 3-4 points right of the country as a whole so the NPV is probably tied or 1 point in either direction.

[heatcharger]

They told us trump rally in the bronx would do nothing
This is just a another W in the 2024 trump campaign, huge gains huge.

I'd like to have some COVID Accountability in the next Administration but with Biden or Trump we're probably never going to get that. Dr. Fauci should be in prison. Trump & Biden committed massive atrocities on COVID and it's all going to be swept under the carpet.

Fauci For Prison / Biden 2024 voter (illegal immigrant)

[heatcharger]

We’re at the point where a 7-point swing to TRUMP in New York feels underwhelming.

Well this would be ground zero for a good performance for Trump in NY. Long Island is more than just the North Shore and the East Hamptons.

Pretty much this, if Long Island is swinging Trump by 7, New York as a whole is probably only swinging like +3 or 4 to Trump rather than the +15 or so people are out claiming because this is the area that's going GOP hardest.

Look at 2022, Long Island is clearly the area the GOP is improving in most in basically the entire country. That's what I mean when I say Long Island Trump by 3 fine. Biden's still winning Nassau on those numbers. NY-04 can still easily flip D.

As we know, every presidential election is exactly like the midterm before it (ignore the most recent presidential election).

[wnwnwn]

The only thing that matters of Long Island in this elections is NY-04 and MAYBE NY-03.

[wnwnwn]

We’re at the point where a 7-point swing to TRUMP in New York feels underwhelming.

Well this would be ground zero for a good performance for Trump in NY. Long Island is more than just the North Shore and the East Hamptons.

Pretty much this, if Long Island is swinging Trump by 7, New York as a whole is probably only swinging like +3 or 4 to Trump rather than the +15 or so people are out claiming because this is the area that's going GOP hardest.

Look at 2022, Long Island is clearly the area the GOP is improving in most in basically the entire country. That's what I mean when I say Long Island Trump by 3 fine. Biden's still winning Nassau on those numbers. NY-04 can still easily flip D.

As we know, every presidential election is exactly like the midterm before it (ignore the most recent presidential election).

Then, why Illinois wasn't competitive in 2012?

[heatcharger]

We’re at the point where a 7-point swing to TRUMP in New York feels underwhelming.

Well this would be ground zero for a good performance for Trump in NY. Long Island is more than just the North Shore and the East Hamptons.

Pretty much this, if Long Island is swinging Trump by 7, New York as a whole is probably only swinging like +3 or 4 to Trump rather than the +15 or so people are out claiming because this is the area that's going GOP hardest.

Look at 2022, Long Island is clearly the area the GOP is improving in most in basically the entire country. That's what I mean when I say Long Island Trump by 3 fine. Biden's still winning Nassau on those numbers. NY-04 can still easily flip D.

As we know, every presidential election is exactly like the midterm before it (ignore the most recent presidential election).

Then, why Illinois wasn't competitive in 2012?

Mikado always been silent on that one.

[The Mikado]

Since Long Island has swung harder right than the rest of NY state, I can make a couple of inferences.

1. NY is not a 9 point race, more like 15. Still a significant shift right but nowhere near competitive.
2. Trump won LI by half a point while losing the NPV by 2 in 2016. COVID hurt Trump a lot here in 2020. LI is generally 3-4 points right of the country as a whole so the NPV is probably tied or 1 point in either direction.

Schumer lost Long Island by 7 and a half points while winning statewide by 14 and a half points in 2012.

[wbrocks67]

How did Hochul do in Long Island in 2022? Again, how are we defining Long Island here?

also-not saying it will be repeated - but Siena's NY03 poll underestimated Suozzi by 4 earlier this year.

[Minnesota Mike]

Are they defining Long Island literally (i.e. including Queens and Brooklyn) or colloquially (just Nassau and Suffolk)?

If the former, that's ridiculous. If the latter, that's actually pretty decent for Biden.

It appears to be just Nassau and Suffolk. Bottom of the crosstabs the breakdown of their sample is Nassau 48%, Suffolk 52%.

https://scri.siena.edu/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/LI0524-Crosstabs.pdf

[wbrocks67]

Are they defining Long Island literally (i.e. including Queens and Brooklyn) or colloquially (just Nassau and Suffolk)?

If the former, that's ridiculous. If the latter, that's actually pretty decent for Biden.

It appears to be just Nassau and Suffolk. Bottom of the crosstabs the breakdown of their sample is Nassau 48%, Suffolk 52%.

https://scri.siena.edu/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/LI0524-Crosstabs.pdf

So basically:

2024 Trump +3 >
2022- Zeldin +14 > Hochul +7 statewide (21% shift)
2020- Biden +4.5 > Biden +23 statewide (18.5% shift)
2016- Trump +1 > Clinton +22.5 statewide (21.5% shift)

If we take this at face value, would ~likely~ mean around a Biden +16-19 margin statewide.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden will win NY by the same margin as IL 57/43