NYT: The Shaky Foundation of Trump’s Lead: Disengaged Voters

[wbrocks67]

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/24/upshot/trump-biden-polls-voters.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare&sgrp=c-cb

Biden continues to lead in the average of NYT/Siena national polls among 2020 voters.

2020 voters: Biden +2
2020 nonvoters: Trump +14

They also have an average among the swing state polls they just did among Democratic-leaning voters:
Voted 2022: Biden 92, Trump 4
Voted 2020, not 2022: Biden 75, Trump 13
Did not vote 2020 or 2022: Biden 74, Trump 19

[ProgressiveModerate]

I’m even skeptical of these non-voter stats.

A pretty significant chunk of 2020 non-voters who actually end up voting in 2024 will be people who have aged into the electorate since 2020. Perhaps that group doesn’t lean as heavily D as previous young voters, but Biden still probably wins it. Likewise with recent immigrants who have gained citizenship and hence the right to vote since 2020 - maybe not as blue as 2020 but still break for Biden.

Some of these polls showing stuff like Trump + 30 with 2020 non voters seem a bit unrealistic for this reason

+13 here by NYT seems a bit more reasonable but it’d still take people who could’ve voted in 2020 but didn’t breaking pretty hard for Trump.

[wbrocks67]

I’m even skeptical of these non-voter stats.

A pretty significant chunk of 2020 non-voters who actually end up voting in 2024 will be people who have aged into the electorate since 2020. Perhaps that group doesn’t lean as heavily D as previous young voters, but Biden still probably wins it. Likewise with recent immigrants who have gained citizenship and hence the right to vote since 2020.

Some of these polls showing stuff like Trump + 30 with 2020 non voters seem a bit unrealistic

+13 here by NYT seems a bit more reasonable but it’d still take people who could’ve voted in 2020 but didn’t breaking pretty hard for Trump.

All of this, plus if you're a Democratic-leaning voter but didn't bother to vote in either 2020 or 2022, are you really that Democratic-leaning?? It's not hard to imagine why some may actually be Trump voters or align that way, if they didn't even bother voting for Biden in 2020.

[Skill and Chance]

I’m even skeptical of these non-voter stats.

A pretty significant chunk of 2020 non-voters who actually end up voting in 2024 will be people who have aged into the electorate since 2020. Perhaps that group doesn’t lean as heavily D as previous young voters, but Biden still probably wins it. Likewise with recent immigrants who have gained citizenship and hence the right to vote since 2020 - maybe not as blue as 2020 but still break for Biden.

Some of these polls showing stuff like Trump + 30 with 2020 non voters seem a bit unrealistic for this reason

+13 here by NYT seems a bit more reasonable but it’d still take people who could’ve voted in 2020 but didn’t breaking pretty hard for Trump.

https://twitter.com/PatrickRuffini/status/1793987645972062361

There was a report out today that new youth (age 18-29) voter registration in Pennsylvania has been very disproportionately Republican.  This could explain Biden winning 2020 voters and losing because of new voters.  Perhaps the 1st hard data that something really is going on with the youth vote?

[wbrocks67]

I’m even skeptical of these non-voter stats.

A pretty significant chunk of 2020 non-voters who actually end up voting in 2024 will be people who have aged into the electorate since 2020. Perhaps that group doesn’t lean as heavily D as previous young voters, but Biden still probably wins it. Likewise with recent immigrants who have gained citizenship and hence the right to vote since 2020 - maybe not as blue as 2020 but still break for Biden.

Some of these polls showing stuff like Trump + 30 with 2020 non voters seem a bit unrealistic for this reason

+13 here by NYT seems a bit more reasonable but it’d still take people who could’ve voted in 2020 but didn’t breaking pretty hard for Trump.

https://twitter.com/PatrickRuffini/status/1793987645972062361

There was a report out today that new youth (age 18-29) voter registration in Pennsylvania has been very disproportionately Republican.  This could explain Biden winning 2020 voters and losing because of new voters.  Perhaps the 1st hard data that something really is going on with the youth vote?

I mean, not really imo? That shows a major shift from 2020 and 2022 and yet Fetterman still won a huge majority of young voters, so I don't really find it that compelling, especially when there is 26% of young people registering Independent as well. This time in 2020 was also right before the primary as well, so that could've easily led to a jump in Dem specific registrations. It's not great to see, and Dems can always beef up their voter reg efforts, but there's a lot of unknowns in voter reg data, especially in PA, especially with younger voters.

Also Nate's whole thing was about "Democratic-leaning voters", which I assume is either Democrats or Independents who lean Democrats. Those people in PA are literally registering Republican, so I don't imagine those are the people who he's speaking about.

[Skill and Chance]

I’m even skeptical of these non-voter stats.

A pretty significant chunk of 2020 non-voters who actually end up voting in 2024 will be people who have aged into the electorate since 2020. Perhaps that group doesn’t lean as heavily D as previous young voters, but Biden still probably wins it. Likewise with recent immigrants who have gained citizenship and hence the right to vote since 2020 - maybe not as blue as 2020 but still break for Biden.

Some of these polls showing stuff like Trump + 30 with 2020 non voters seem a bit unrealistic for this reason

+13 here by NYT seems a bit more reasonable but it’d still take people who could’ve voted in 2020 but didn’t breaking pretty hard for Trump.

https://twitter.com/PatrickRuffini/status/1793987645972062361

There was a report out today that new youth (age 18-29) voter registration in Pennsylvania has been very disproportionately Republican.  This could explain Biden winning 2020 voters and losing because of new voters.  Perhaps the 1st hard data that something really is going on with the youth vote?

I mean, not really imo? That shows a major shift from 2020 and 2022 and yet Fetterman still won a huge majority of young voters, so I don't really find it that compelling, especially when there is 26% of young people registering Independent as well. This time in 2020 was also right before the primary as well, so that could've easily led to a jump in Dem specific registrations. It's not great to see, and Dems can always beef up their voter reg efforts, but there's a lot of unknowns in voter reg data, especially in PA, especially with younger voters.

It's consistent with significant movement right of young voters compared to 2022.

[kwabbit]

I’m even skeptical of these non-voter stats.

A pretty significant chunk of 2020 non-voters who actually end up voting in 2024 will be people who have aged into the electorate since 2020. Perhaps that group doesn’t lean as heavily D as previous young voters, but Biden still probably wins it. Likewise with recent immigrants who have gained citizenship and hence the right to vote since 2020 - maybe not as blue as 2020 but still break for Biden.

Some of these polls showing stuff like Trump + 30 with 2020 non voters seem a bit unrealistic for this reason

+13 here by NYT seems a bit more reasonable but it’d still take people who could’ve voted in 2020 but didn’t breaking pretty hard for Trump.

https://twitter.com/PatrickRuffini/status/1793987645972062361
There was a report out today that new youth (age 18-29) voter registration in Pennsylvania has been very disproportionately Republican.  This could explain Biden winning 2020 voters and losing because of new voters.  Perhaps the 1st hard data that something really is going on with the youth vote?

It's hard to predict anything with voter registration. That report definitely provides some evidence that Dems are slipping with young voters, but it could also just GOP-leaning young voters are now registering more with the party and not as an independent. Republicans have really prioritized voter registration that past few years and there's not much evidence to suggest it matters, in of itself, but if such a change is happening passively then it's a good sign for the GOP. Ruffini also shared a chart with the 2-way GOP Black registration percentage% surging. That seems more concrete but also could just be nothing.

[RI]

There is some evidence from various presidential primaries this year that young voters are far more R-leaning than previous and that non-voters were mostly choosing R ballots when they participated. Not dispositive by any means, but the initial claim is not solely reliant on polling.

[Stranger in a strange land]

This is why I think Trump is in a worse position that his current polling suggests (though he still has a very good chance of winning): campaigns that rely on low-propensity and low-info voters, especially first-time low propensity voters, tend to do poorly.

[Kamala's side hoe]

There is some evidence from various presidential primaries this year that young voters are far more R-leaning than previous and that non-voters were mostly choosing R ballots when they participated. Not dispositive by any means, but the initial claim is not solely reliant on polling.

What evidence is there for this outside of exurban Snohomish county? You posted a deep dive of WA primary results on here showing that.

[DaleCooper]

You need to actually get out and talk to people if you think that 18-22 year-olds are conservative. Even in Nebraska these people are pot-smoking LGBTs who hate rich people. I just don't believe that in swing states, young adults are big fans of GOP candidates. I don't think people realize how dramatic of a shift this would be. I'd believe Trump winning 30-40% of the black vote before I'd believe him winning the youth vote. Young voters loving Trump (and beyond that, Republicans!) would be the biggest upset in all of American electoral history in my opinion.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

It's worth mentioning that in 2012 Romney had an advantage with high propensity suburban voters in the key swing states, but still lost to Obama's low propensity coalition despite much lower turnout than 2008.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's worth mentioning that in 2012 Romney had an advantage with high propensity suburban voters in the key swing states, but still lost to Obama's low propensity coalition despite much lower turnout than 2008.

It was Sandy just like IAN helped out Johnson that helped with Eday 2012 for Ds and pull into a tie with Ds in 22

[ProgressiveModerate]

You need to actually get out and talk to people if you think that 18-22 year-olds are conservative. Even in Nebraska these people are pot-smoking LGBTs who hate rich people. I just don't believe that in swing states, young adults are big fans of GOP candidates. I don't think people realize how dramatic of a shift this would be. I'd believe Trump winning 30-40% of the black vote before I'd believe him winning the youth vote. Young voters loving Trump (and beyond that, Republicans!) would be the biggest upset in all of American electoral history in my opinion.

I think for a lot of young voters, who they support is less about policy and more about identity.

I know quite a few relatively disengaged young friends who are Trump supporters almost purely for identity reasons - mainly it helps with their brand of being the “cool rebellious young guy”. I think they don’t yet see that elections actually have consequences and haven’t really considered the policy aspect.

It’s sort of simillar to how a lot of blacks who’s policy beliefs might align more with Republicans continue voting Democrat - it’s in large part due to identity and social pressures around them.

[DaleCooper]

You need to actually get out and talk to people if you think that 18-22 year-olds are conservative. Even in Nebraska these people are pot-smoking LGBTs who hate rich people. I just don't believe that in swing states, young adults are big fans of GOP candidates. I don't think people realize how dramatic of a shift this would be. I'd believe Trump winning 30-40% of the black vote before I'd believe him winning the youth vote. Young voters loving Trump (and beyond that, Republicans!) would be the biggest upset in all of American electoral history in my opinion.

I think for a lot of young voters, who they support is less about policy and more about identity.

I know quite a few relatively disengaged young friends who are Trump supporters almost purely for identity reasons - mainly it helps with their brand of being the “cool rebellious young guy”. I think they don’t yet see that elections actually have consequences and haven’t really considered the policy aspect.

It’s sort of simillar to how a lot of blacks who’s policy beliefs might align more with Republicans continue voting Democrat - it’s in large part due to identity and social pressures around them.

I've seen that too, but "cool rebellious young guy" (aka, an incel) is still very much a minority. A bisexual 20-year-old with a diverse group of friends who thinks Republicans are racist and thinks corporations are raising prices for no reason is much more representative of the average young voter than the Trump supporter is.

The nice thing about all this is that Trump has been around for a decade, so we don't need to deal with hypothetical examples. All of these talking points went around back in 2015-2016. Gen Z is the most conservative generation since the Silent generation, was a common talking point among internet conservatives back then. Trump had youth appeal. Conservative memes were mobilizing young Republicans. Ben Shapiro thug life compilations. Hillary is out of touch and has been around for too long. We've had this conversation before and we didn't see this surge of support for Republicans among young people.

[Stranger in a strange land]

It's worth mentioning that in 2012 Romney had an advantage with high propensity suburban voters in the key swing states, but still lost to Obama's low propensity coalition despite much lower turnout than 2008.

A lot of the narratives about 2008 & 2012 that were prevalent at the time were overturned, or at very least called into question, by later research. A big part of Obama's coalition was high propensity non-evangelical white working class voters, especially in the Midwest, who McCain and Romney were terrible fits for and who he knew how to talk to.

[Unelectable Bystander]

Read the graph folks. Only 55% of the newly registered voters are even in the 18-29 group so a very small minority are going to be your stereotypical college educated liberal that just turned 18 in the last 4 years. It’s not hard to see the insane new voter numbers being true if Trump gets 30% of 18-22 year olds and wins a super-majority of every other new voter age. Not saying it’s true, just saying this board only considers 20 year old educated white liberals because that’s the demographic that posts on this board.

[Roronoa D. Law]

I still think the easiest way for the GOP to lose this election is to act like Biden is doa and its in the bag.  We already have evidence that voters don't like either one of them. If you give them any indication that the election is over they will stay home and those the voters they're relying on.

[King Man]

the only way for Trump to win is High Turnout, if there is no high turnout he is cooked.

[Progressive Pessimist]

If this is coming out of the New York Times I guess it has to be true then.

I still think the easiest way for the GOP to lose this election is to act like Biden is doa and its in the bag.  We already have evidence that voters don't like either one of them. If you give them any indication that the election is over they will stay home and those the voters they're relying on.

Don't put it past them. Trump and the GOP are often plagued by hubris.