Nevada/Arizona: FAU: Trump +8, Biden +2

[GAinDC]

I def believe it. Arizona is a state that should favor Dems compared to NV. Higher college attainment, suburbs that are blueing faster, two very large cities that are bigger than both Vegas and Reno. Plus, Tuscon is very blue and Phoenix is getting bluer while Vegas seems to be getting redder.

If education polarization and racial depolarization continues, Nevada is a West Virginia 2000 waiting to happen.  The Dem political machine in Clark can only hold on so long.

The counter argument is that unions are becoming more powerful again, and they have a big presence in Vegas

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The polls are doing the same thing in the Winter they are under samples of minorities in favor of Trump, just like the winter
 It's not rocket science just because these are polls

Polls lie

[Skill and Chance]

I def believe it. Arizona is a state that should favor Dems compared to NV. Higher college attainment, suburbs that are blueing faster, two very large cities that are bigger than both Vegas and Reno. Plus, Tuscon is very blue and Phoenix is getting bluer while Vegas seems to be getting redder.

If education polarization and racial depolarization continues, Nevada is a West Virginia 2000 waiting to happen.  The Dem political machine in Clark can only hold on so long.

The counter argument is that unions are becoming more powerful again, and they have a big presence in Vegas

Aggregate data on union membership doesn't really suggest a significant increase, though.

[DaleCooper]

Sorry, should've clarified that I didn't mean that 100% of down-ballot Democrats polled worse than Biden in 2020.

[DaleCooper]

One of the big red flags for Trump is the same one that Biden supporters (myself included) ignored back in 2020, and it's that downballot candidates are performing dramatically worse than him. Yes, Biden did do better than most Democrats in 2020 but not by much. It'll be the same with Trump. If Rosen is winning by 10 then Trump is not winning by 8. Again, doesn't mean Trump won't win Nevada, but it does indicate a big problem with these polls.

Could always go the other way. Downballot R candidates - especially because most are low name recognition challengers to incumbents - could end up doing a lot better come election day.

Though personally, I am expecting Trump to do better than most downballot R's, by about 2-3%. Bigger overperformance for dems in the Senate.

It's possible but that absolutely would contradict almost all election results in 2022 and 2023. It's pretty clear based on those elections that non-Biden Democrats are doing better than Democrats have in over 30 years with the obvious exception of 2006-08 of course.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The polls are just being overly Trump friendly in both states because they want Trump to be at 268 and Eday to come down to NE 2 and ME 2 and we have seen no polls in ME 2

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

It's weird that they publish results "broken out by ....(race, gender, etc.)" but then don't actually show any numbers (all of the numbers in the demographic cross tabs are blank).

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

NV to the right of AZ. I'm calling it! If I'm wrong, I'm saving this and you all can mock me

I’ll quote you on that because I agree with you at this point. My map at this point would have Biden winning AZ and Trump losing NV.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

One of the big red flags for Trump is the same one that Biden supporters (myself included) ignored back in 2020, and it's that downballot candidates are performing dramatically worse than him. Yes, Biden did do better than most Democrats in 2020 but not by much. It'll be the same with Trump. If Rosen is winning by 10 then Trump is not winning by 8. Again, doesn't mean Trump won't win Nevada, but it does indicate a big problem with these polls.

Could always go the other way. Downballot R candidates - especially because most are low name recognition challengers to incumbents - could end up doing a lot better come election day.

Though personally, I am expecting Trump to do better than most downballot R's, by about 2-3%. Bigger overperformance for dems in the Senate.

It's possible but that absolutely would contradict almost all election results in 2022 and 2023. It's pretty clear based on those elections that non-Biden Democrats are doing better than Democrats have in over 30 years with the obvious exception of 2006-08 of course.

I mean in the sense that Rosen + 10 turns into Rosen + 3 on eday, and say Trump wins NV by 2%. That'd still represent an overpeformance in downballot dems, but not as big of a gap as polls are suggesting.

[Ljube]

Lake is so toasted.

Trump should unendorse Lake.
She is poison.

[dspNY]

Lake is so toasted.

Trump should unendorse Lake.
She is poison.

There’s a better than 50-50 chance Lake dooms Trump to defeat despite some of the polls currently showing Trump ahead. Lake is that toxic; to the point where Democrats could run ads morphing Trump’s face into Lake

[DaleCooper]

One of the big red flags for Trump is the same one that Biden supporters (myself included) ignored back in 2020, and it's that downballot candidates are performing dramatically worse than him. Yes, Biden did do better than most Democrats in 2020 but not by much. It'll be the same with Trump. If Rosen is winning by 10 then Trump is not winning by 8. Again, doesn't mean Trump won't win Nevada, but it does indicate a big problem with these polls.

Could always go the other way. Downballot R candidates - especially because most are low name recognition challengers to incumbents - could end up doing a lot better come election day.

Though personally, I am expecting Trump to do better than most downballot R's, by about 2-3%. Bigger overperformance for dems in the Senate.

It's possible but that absolutely would contradict almost all election results in 2022 and 2023. It's pretty clear based on those elections that non-Biden Democrats are doing better than Democrats have in over 30 years with the obvious exception of 2006-08 of course.

I mean in the sense that Rosen + 10 turns into Rosen + 3 on eday, and say Trump wins NV by 2%. That'd still represent an overpeformance in downballot dems, but not as big of a gap as polls are suggesting.

Sure, but that's a reasonable result that would also necessitate a Trump under-performance.

[Ljube]

This is a Trump win.
He doesn't need Arizona, or Nevada, or Michigan, or Wisconsin.
And he is leading in both Pennsylvania and Georgia.
I think Trump should only campaign in Pennsylvania and Georgia and forget about all other states.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

One of the big red flags for Trump is the same one that Biden supporters (myself included) ignored back in 2020, and it's that downballot candidates are performing dramatically worse than him. Yes, Biden did do better than most Democrats in 2020 but not by much. It'll be the same with Trump. If Rosen is winning by 10 then Trump is not winning by 8. Again, doesn't mean Trump won't win Nevada, but it does indicate a big problem with these polls.

Rosen is not winning by 10 either.

I've said it before, in most swing states the match-up or senate campaigns hasn't even started. Few people - esp uninformed ones - know who will be on the ballot in Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania for the Republicans.

Gallego performs 3 points better than Biden (48% compared to 45%) and Rosen 4 points (47 vs 43). that's already a lot more normal than...

Rosen +10, Trump +8 which indicates a 18% gap.

The gap will narrow (and likely towards the middle for both since i don't believe Rosen will win by 10 or Trump winning by 8 )

Trump however already at 51 for the H2H race so either way he wins in this poll.

And do not forget Brown hasn't even won his primary yet... The primary election still has to take place. Republicans (and independents) don't even know who their nominee is going to be in NV. Name recognition explains the wide gap here too.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The polls had a tie last week in both states and the polls want us somehow to believe NV is going 9 pts like TX that's wrong. Even Bush W never won NV by 9 it was by 4