Nevada/Arizona: FAU: Trump +8, Biden +2

[Matty]

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1793658311428182082

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1793656189328498926

[SnowLabrador]

Party like it's 2000, I guess. That's how much split-ticketing we're seeing.

[xavier110]

AZ is the new NV. Unironically?

[SnowLabrador]

AZ is the new NV. Unironically?

I guess if trends continue they could vote 10 points apart. In 2020 NV voted 2 points to the left of AZ, but in 2022 AZ-SEN was 4 points left of NV-SEN. Trends are real, I guess.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Lake is so toasted.

[CookieDamage]

I def believe it. Arizona is a state that should favor Dems compared to NV. Higher college attainment, suburbs that are blueing faster, two very large cities that are bigger than both Vegas and Reno. Plus, Tuscon is very blue and Phoenix is getting bluer while Vegas seems to be getting redder.

[dspNY]

Abortion and Kari Lake starting to drag the GOP down in Arizona. If Arizona becomes a true tossup it gives Biden another path to 270 and improves his odds. Biden still must win PA and MI but could lose WI and still get there with a win in AZ. So this is actually the best polling news Biden has gotten in the swing states in a bit

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yeah right Biden is gonna win both

[dspNY]

That being said, we still need to see more polling out of AZ with Biden leading or tied to declare it a true tossup

[Vern]

Then AZ Numbers seem weird, either the head to head is wrong or the full field one is wrong. Trump doesn’t lose any support in the full field

[dspNY]

Then AZ Numbers seem weird, either the head to head is wrong or the full field one is wrong. Trump doesn’t lose any support in the full field

RFK Jr taking more from Biden is not weird at all. We’ve seen polling going both ways on that.

[mjba257]

NV to the right of AZ. I'm calling it! If I'm wrong, I'm saving this and you all can mock me

[dspNY]

NV to the right of AZ. I'm calling it! If I'm wrong, I'm saving this and you all can mock me

I think you’re going to be right here. The recent polling out of Arizona shows Biden starting to close in with a legit chance of winning it

[DaleCooper]

One of the big red flags for Trump is the same one that Biden supporters (myself included) ignored back in 2020, and it's that downballot candidates are performing dramatically worse than him. Yes, Biden did do better than most Democrats in 2020 but not by much. It'll be the same with Trump. If Rosen is winning by 10 then Trump is not winning by 8. Again, doesn't mean Trump won't win Nevada, but it does indicate a big problem with these polls.

[wbrocks67]

Honestly, if you want to know why polling is having such a hard time - just look at the AZ poll.

387 of the 501 unweighted respondents were 65+. There were only 37 in 18-34 and 38 in 35-49.

They had to weight the *sh**t* out of them to try and balance it out, so that the weighted frequency is only 210 for 65+

That can lead to some really whacky results when you have to weigh groups that are so small to begin with.

[xavier110]

That being said, we still need to see more polling out of AZ with Biden leading or tied to declare it a true tossup

I don’t think you need a lot of polling to determine that AZ is at the very least a tossup. Just look at the major election results since 2016. It would defy political gravity if Trump somehow won by, say, 5 or 6 or more, and each side has a very limited range of outcomes - something like Biden+2 to Trump+3. It will always be close so long as Pima is D+20 and Maricopa is 50/50 or tilt D margin wise.

[wbrocks67]

AZ-
RV: Biden 41, Trump 41
LV: Biden 45, Trump 43

RV: Trump 39, Biden 37, RFK 9, Someone else 6
LV: Trump 43, Biden 39, RFK 7, Someone else 4

NV-
RV: Trump 50, Biden 42
LV: Trump 51, Biden 43

RV: Trump 44,  Biden 40, RFK 9, Someone else 3
LV: Trump 46, Biden 40, RFK 8, Someone else 2

Depending on mode, AZ is Biden +2 to Trump +4, and NV is Trump +4 to Trump +8

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

One of the big red flags for Trump is the same one that Biden supporters (myself included) ignored back in 2020, and it's that downballot candidates are performing dramatically worse than him. Yes, Biden did do better than most Democrats in 2020 but not by much. It'll be the same with Trump. If Rosen is winning by 10 then Trump is not winning by 8. Again, doesn't mean Trump won't win Nevada, but it does indicate a big problem with these polls.

Could always go the other way. Downballot R candidates - especially because most are low name recognition challengers to incumbents - could end up doing a lot better come election day.

Though personally, I am expecting Trump to do better than most downballot R's, by about 2-3%. Bigger overperformance for dems in the Senate.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

One of the big red flags for Trump is the same one that Biden supporters (myself included) ignored back in 2020, and it's that downballot candidates are performing dramatically worse than him. Yes, Biden did do better than most Democrats in 2020 but not by much. It'll be the same with Trump. If Rosen is winning by 10 then Trump is not winning by 8. Again, doesn't mean Trump won't win Nevada, but it does indicate a big problem with these polls.

To bring this up in the case of a Arizona poll is a strange choice.

Kelly was consistently outperforming Biden in AZ polling in 2020.

[Vern]

Then AZ Numbers seem weird, either the head to head is wrong or the full field one is wrong. Trump doesn’t lose any support in the full field

RFK Jr taking more from Biden is not weird at all. We’ve seen polling going both ways on that.

Right, but for him to not take anything from Trump isn’t right

[DaleCooper]

One of the big red flags for Trump is the same one that Biden supporters (myself included) ignored back in 2020, and it's that downballot candidates are performing dramatically worse than him. Yes, Biden did do better than most Democrats in 2020 but not by much. It'll be the same with Trump. If Rosen is winning by 10 then Trump is not winning by 8. Again, doesn't mean Trump won't win Nevada, but it does indicate a big problem with these polls.

To bring this up in the case of a Arizona poll is a strange choice.

Kelly was consistently outperforming Biden in AZ polling in 2020.

That was off by quite a bit too.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Then AZ Numbers seem weird, either the head to head is wrong or the full field one is wrong. Trump doesn’t lose any support in the full field

This jumped out at me too.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

One of the big red flags for Trump is the same one that Biden supporters (myself included) ignored back in 2020, and it's that downballot candidates are performing dramatically worse than him. Yes, Biden did do better than most Democrats in 2020 but not by much. It'll be the same with Trump. If Rosen is winning by 10 then Trump is not winning by 8. Again, doesn't mean Trump won't win Nevada, but it does indicate a big problem with these polls.

To bring this up in the case of a Arizona poll is a strange choice.

Kelly was consistently outperforming Biden in AZ polling in 2020.

That was off by quite a bit too.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2020/arizona/trump-vs-biden

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/senate/general/2020/arizona/kelly-vs-mcsally

It is opposite to your assertion that polling showed Biden dramatically outperforming downballot dems.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

One of the big red flags for Trump is the same one that Biden supporters (myself included) ignored back in 2020, and it's that downballot candidates are performing dramatically worse than him. Yes, Biden did do better than most Democrats in 2020 but not by much. It'll be the same with Trump. If Rosen is winning by 10 then Trump is not winning by 8. Again, doesn't mean Trump won't win Nevada, but it does indicate a big problem with these polls.

To bring this up in the case of a Arizona poll is a strange choice.

Kelly was consistently outperforming Biden in AZ polling in 2020.

That was off by quite a bit too.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2020/arizona/trump-vs-biden

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/senate/general/2020/arizona/kelly-vs-mcsally

It is opposite to your assertion that polling showed Biden dramatically outperforming downballot dems.

Trump isn't that strong they said Steve Garvey was gonna be a strong candidate for S and do like Hogan lose like 53/47 and he is losing badly, these are polls not votes

Real clear also Pred 230RH and 53RS in 22 I don't even look at Real clear since that debacle

[Skill and Chance]

I def believe it. Arizona is a state that should favor Dems compared to NV. Higher college attainment, suburbs that are blueing faster, two very large cities that are bigger than both Vegas and Reno. Plus, Tuscon is very blue and Phoenix is getting bluer while Vegas seems to be getting redder.

If education polarization and racial depolarization continues, Nevada is a West Virginia 2000 waiting to happen.  The Dem political machine in Clark can only hold on so long.