Cook Political Report/GSG/BSG Swing states poll: Close everywhere except NV/NC

[wbrocks67]

Wisconsin
Biden 45%
Trump 45%

Biden 41%
Trump 41%
RFK Jr. 9%

Arizona
Trump 45%
Biden 44%

Trump 41%
Biden 37%
RFK Jr. 10%

Michigan
Trump 47%
Biden 45%

Trump 43%
Biden 40%
RFK Jr. 7%

Pennsylvania
Trump 48%
Biden 45%

Trump 43%
Biden 40%
RFK Jr. 7%

Georgia
Trump 47%
Biden 44%

Trump 42%
Biden 38%
RFK Jr. 10%

North Carolina
Trump 48%
Biden 41%

Trump 44%
Biden 36%
RFK Jr. 8%

Nevada
Trump 49%
Biden 40%

Trump 43%
Biden 35%
RFJ Jr. 10%

https://www.cookpolitical.com/survey-research/2024-swing-state-project/unique-election-driven-traditional-issue

[Vern]

These seem reasonable, NV numbers may be off a little.

[wbrocks67]

Everythings in the realm of possibility/MoE here except NV/NC though. Funny how pollsters can only find Trump +10 or a tie in Nevada at this point. (sort of same with NC, where its usually Trump +2-3 or Trump +7-9)

[wbrocks67]

Trump gets a 52/48 approval for his time in office for 'preserving democracy'?!!! I may become the joker...

[CookieDamage]

Biden doing better in Arizona than Pennsylvania, and Georgia and Pennsylvania polling the same. This makes a lot more sense to me than AZ/GA polling like ten points to the right of PA/MI/WI. Still not good for Biden.

[wbrocks67]

From what I can tell, their statement says interviews were only done in English, which could be the reason for the NV result.

[dspNY]

The swing state polling still doesn’t look great but this poll does show the sun belt slowly getting bluer and more competitive. Arizona is a 1 point Biden deficit and the last three Georgia polls show a narrowing race (3 points or so). Nevada is all over the place. It shouldn’t be a hard state to poll but we’re getting wildly different results (either a tie or Likely R)

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Again not great but I’m glad the rust belt continues to be competitive and the sun belt especially GA is looking better.

Recent polling shows me we’ve come a long way but we still have a long way to go.

[Vern]

Everythings in the realm of possibility/MoE here except NV/NC though. Funny how pollsters can only find Trump +10 or a tie in Nevada at this point. (sort of same with NC, where its usually Trump +2-3 or Trump +7-9)

Polling itself is just crazy right now.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

NV isn't 9% Trump

[CookieDamage]

From what I can tell, their statement says interviews were only done in English, which could be the reason for the NV result.

That's so annoying. They should offer Spanish for all of them considering many of these states have major Spanish speaking populations.

[wbrocks67]

Cook putting the crosstabs under lock and key unless you pay their $29/month package lol

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

They saw the polls close in NV and wantta give Trump the advantage lol

[2016]

The swing state polling still doesn’t look great but this poll does show the sun belt slowly getting bluer and more competitive. Arizona is a 1 point Biden deficit and the last three Georgia polls show a narrowing race (3 points or so). Nevada is all over the place. It shouldn’t be a hard state to poll but we’re getting wildly different results (either a tie or Likely R)

Biden won't win any of the Sunbelt States, certainly not States he barely won like GA & AZ in 2020 when Democrats had a much better National Political Environment.

Pres Bidens most likely path now to 270 Electoral College Votes is Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and either Nebraskas 2nd Congressional District (which would get him to excatly 270) or Nevada (which would give him 275).

[dspNY]

The swing state polling still doesn’t look great but this poll does show the sun belt slowly getting bluer and more competitive. Arizona is a 1 point Biden deficit and the last three Georgia polls show a narrowing race (3 points or so). Nevada is all over the place. It shouldn’t be a hard state to poll but we’re getting wildly different results (either a tie or Likely R)

Biden won't win any of the Sunbelt States, certainly not States he barely won like GA & AZ in 2020 when Democrats had a much better National Political Environment.

Pres Bidens most likely path now to 270 Electoral College Votes is Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and either Nebraskas 2nd Congressional District (which would get him to excatly 270) or Nevada (which would give him 275).

Arizona is going to be tough for the GOP. Lake is a uniquely terrible candidate that could sink the entire GOP there

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's tiresome they have NV and AZ Lean R NV isn't voting +9 like TX

[CookieDamage]

It's tiresome they have NV and AZ Lean R NV isn't voting +9 like TX

NV can definitely experience a large swing. Maybe not R+9 but it seems like the perfect state to swing Trump. Low college attainment and particularly Hispanic.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

As I said NV isn't voting 9% Trump like TX it's the 275th state

[GeorgiaModerate]

The swing state polling still doesn’t look great but this poll does show the sun belt slowly getting bluer and more competitive. Arizona is a 1 point Biden deficit and the last three Georgia polls show a narrowing race (3 points or so). Nevada is all over the place. It shouldn’t be a hard state to poll but we’re getting wildly different results (either a tie or Likely R)

Biden won't win any of the Sunbelt States, certainly not States he barely won like GA & AZ in 2020 when Democrats had a much better National Political Environment.

Pres Bidens most likely path now to 270 Electoral College Votes is Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and either Nebraskas 2nd Congressional District (which would get him to excatly 270) or Nevada (which would give him 275).

NE-2 is much safer for Biden than Nevada is.  This isn't to say that Biden couldn't win Nevada (though IMO at the moment he's the underdog there), but if he does, then he's also winning NE-2 easily.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

Everythings in the realm of possibility/MoE here except NV/NC though. Funny how pollsters can only find Trump +10 or a tie in Nevada at this point. (sort of same with NC, where its usually Trump +2-3 or Trump +7-9)

Polling itself is just crazy right now.

Polling is historically consistent rn.

If you look at election 10-20 years ago, there was a lot more volatile, with big shifts happening in a few weeks, and polls showing very conflicting results.

The polls for 2024 are very consistent in showing a mostly tied race in the rustbelt and a Trump advantage in the sunbelt. There are some outliers, but those always have existed.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The polls lied about Laxalt winning in NV in 22, just for your info

[Vice President Christian Man]

This is good news for Biden, but then again most of the swing states were close for Hillary and it wasn't enough. If he can improve by 2-3% points in the PV then he might be able to pull it off even if he loses NV.

[Vern]

Everythings in the realm of possibility/MoE here except NV/NC though. Funny how pollsters can only find Trump +10 or a tie in Nevada at this point. (sort of same with NC, where its usually Trump +2-3 or Trump +7-9)

Polling itself is just crazy right now.

Polling is historically consistent rn.

If you look at election 10-20 years ago, there was a lot more volatile, with big shifts happening in a few weeks, and polls showing very conflicting results.

The polls for 2024 are very consistent in showing a mostly tied race in the rustbelt and a Trump advantage in the sunbelt. There are some outliers, but those always have existed.

This is true, I was just saying how some states are all over the place.

[wbrocks67]

Everythings in the realm of possibility/MoE here except NV/NC though. Funny how pollsters can only find Trump +10 or a tie in Nevada at this point. (sort of same with NC, where its usually Trump +2-3 or Trump +7-9)

Polling itself is just crazy right now.

Polling is historically consistent rn.

If you look at election 10-20 years ago, there was a lot more volatile, with big shifts happening in a few weeks, and polls showing very conflicting results.

The polls for 2024 are very consistent in showing a mostly tied race in the rustbelt and a Trump advantage in the sunbelt. There are some outliers, but those always have existed.

This is true, I was just saying how some states are all over the place.

Yeah I would say MI/PI/WI are mostly the lesser egregious of the bunch, with all 3 basically averaging out to close to a tied race, and us getting polls of both Biden and Trump in the lead.

AZ/GA/NC/NV have been the more messier ones with poll results ranging by like 7-10% at different points.

[Vern]

Everythings in the realm of possibility/MoE here except NV/NC though. Funny how pollsters can only find Trump +10 or a tie in Nevada at this point. (sort of same with NC, where its usually Trump +2-3 or Trump +7-9)

Polling itself is just crazy right now.

Polling is historically consistent rn.

If you look at election 10-20 years ago, there was a lot more volatile, with big shifts happening in a few weeks, and polls showing very conflicting results.

The polls for 2024 are very consistent in showing a mostly tied race in the rustbelt and a Trump advantage in the sunbelt. There are some outliers, but those always have existed.

This is true, I was just saying how some states are all over the place.

Yeah I would say MI/PI/WI are mostly the lesser egregious of the bunch, with all 3 basically averaging out to close to a tied race, and us getting polls of both Biden and Trump in the lead.

AZ/GA/NC/NV have been the more messier ones with poll results ranging by like 7-10% at different points.

Yea, hopefully things will settle down the closer we get to Election Day so we can get a clearer picture.