If New York City would swing right this year...

[iceman]

If New York City would swing considerably right this year, as what some of here is speculating, what's a good reason why it won't be replicated in other big and diverse cities like Chicago, Philadelphia, Los Angeles and Houston?

[LAKISYLVANIA]

If New York City would swing considerably right this year, as what some of here is speculating, what's a good reason why it won't be replicated in other big and diverse cities like Chicago, Philadelphia, Los Angeles and Houston?

I don't think many are argueing for that, because i believe all those big and diverse cities will see a similar effect, but i'll try to answer your question.

1. New York City is one of the largest cities in the USA, and actually worldwide and is still a different class than the other cities you name - well at least compared to Houston. And therefore will have a larger percentage of people within that urban area relative to the state, therefore a 10% decline in turnout in NYC would be more damaging to New York state compared to a 10% decline in turnout in Houston for Texas.

Secondly, but on a related note because of its cosmopolitan nature, NYC might be a different class in that some trends observed here might be unique because of how much of a megacity NYC is, and the wide varieties of cultures, ethnicities and minorities here, like observed in Miami too (with the Cuban and Puerto Rican populations). It's possible there'll be shifts within certain ethnicties that have a considerable population here but not elsewhere where we see shifts.

2. Unlike cities like Houston and Atlanta, New York City is losing population meaning that losses would not be offset by influx of new people. This is why I don't expect as much of a change in Houston relative to NYC. If 10% turnout decline is observed, that very well could be offset by 10% population growth. Whereas NYC is also shrinking in population

3. Compared to some other cities and because of its geographical location, there is more room to fall for NYC because of how democratic it already traditionally votes in the USA usually. Additionally for Philadelphia, Biden's performance in 2020 there wasn't particularly good (or Clinton's performance in Philadelphia was excellent, it depends on how you see it). So perhaps there's less room to fall in Philadelphia but I could be wrong about that.

4. I think the idea of NY swinging right wing mainly comes from the disappointing 2022 elections here and the excellent performance of Republicans in Staten Island and Long Island (which may be or may not be seen as part of NYC). I don't believe Manhattan will vote that differently for instance. I also believe that those two areas might be fertile ground for independents such like RFK jr. .

5. Some of the issues that plague Biden will be in particular observed in NYC given it's a progressive city, and it's young and minority-rich population. Of course this could also be observed in other cities (and which I also expect to occur). But I do believe that issues like Gaza will hurt Biden in areas like the Bronx or Brooklyn for instance, whereas that might be less of an issue in other areas like Houston because of the institutional traditions of those states and the environment people grow up in and are accustomed in.

6. There is no need for the candidates to campaign in NYC specifically given it's not a swing state and when there is a lack of enthusiasm in certain demographics that matter to NYC, this might be in particular be observed here, whereas in Philadelphia, Detroit, Houston and Atlanta there will be more coordinated specific ad-targetted efforts to win those voters back.

But again I do not expect this to be an issue specific to NYC, it's just it might be more pronounced or noticeable in NYC than elsewhere because of several reasons and for the simple fact that NYC is huge.

But i agree that cities like Chicago willl observe a similar fate and that we will also see a decline in the margin that Biden wins Illinois with and that this in part explains why the popular vote might be competitive or is competitive at the moment.

The fact that Biden is struggling to get his message across in several of the big cities or urban areas.

[pikachu]

I'd bet on a swing right in cities, but NYC is unique in a lot of ways. Among other things, the demographics are quite different when you start looking under the hood (e.g. the white population in NY being fairly Jewish and having a lot of recent immigrants), the 'way of life' is different due to exceptional population density and the heavy public transit, equivalents to the Post and Daily News have died out elsewhere, and the migrant issue has been perceived to be more of a mess here than in other cities like LA.

[ProgressiveModerate]

The main thing about NYC that doesn’t exist to the same extent is these other cities is tons of ethic pockets where Trump and Republicans generally have been good at micro-targeting voters. These voters have historically leaned Dem, but in recent cycles have started to warm up to the GOP who shares many of their social and cultural values. It’s sort of like a bunch of mini Hialeahs scattered throughout the city.

Another factor is that NYC turnout is generally very poor even compared to these other cities - Philly and Atlanta will both be heavily targeted in 2024 and so Biden’s losses of voters dropping out of the electorate are more minimized.

I also think in NYC far left politics has a disproportionate presence - combine that with a relative lack of Dem investment and I could see protest votes costing Biden here.

Also as some others have pointed out certain issues like migrant crisis and Cost of Living have had disproportionate impacts on the city.

[ProgressiveModerate]

If New York City would swing considerably right this year, as what some of here is speculating, what's a good reason why it won't be replicated in other big and diverse cities like Chicago, Philadelphia, Los Angeles and Houston?

I don't think many are argueing for that, because i believe all those big and diverse cities will see a similar effect, but i'll try to answer your question.

1. New York City is one of the largest cities in the USA, and actually worldwide and is still a different class than the other cities you name - well at least compared to Houston. And therefore will have a larger percentage of people within that urban area relative to the state, therefore a 10% decline in turnout in NYC would be more damaging to New York state compared to a 10% decline in turnout in Houston for Texas.

Secondly, but on a related note because of its cosmopolitan nature, NYC might be a different class in that some trends observed here might be unique because of how much of a megacity NYC is, and the wide varieties of cultures, ethnicities and minorities here, like observed in Miami too (with the Cuban and Puerto Rican populations). It's possible there'll be shifts within certain ethnicties that have a considerable population here but not elsewhere where we see shifts.

2. Unlike cities like Houston and Atlanta, New York City is losing population meaning that losses would not be offset by influx of new people. This is why I don't expect as much of a change in Houston relative to NYC. If 10% turnout decline is observed, that very well could be offset by 10% population growth. Whereas NYC is also shrinking in population

3. Compared to some other cities and because of its geographical location, there is more room to fall for NYC because of how democratic it already traditionally votes in the USA usually. Additionally for Philadelphia, Biden's performance in 2020 there wasn't particularly good (or Clinton's performance in Philadelphia was excellent, it depends on how you see it). So perhaps there's less room to fall in Philadelphia but I could be wrong about that.

4. I think the idea of NY swinging right wing mainly comes from the disappointing 2022 elections here and the excellent performance of Republicans in Staten Island and Long Island (which may be or may not be seen as part of NYC). I don't believe Manhattan will vote that differently for instance. I also believe that those two areas might be fertile ground for independents such like RFK jr. .

5. Some of the issues that plague Biden will be in particular observed in NYC given it's a progressive city, and it's young and minority-rich population. Of course this could also be observed in other cities (and which I also expect to occur). But I do believe that issues like Gaza will hurt Biden in areas like the Bronx or Brooklyn for instance, whereas that might be less of an issue in other areas like Houston because of the institutional traditions of those states and the environment people grow up in and are accustomed in.

6. There is no need for the candidates to campaign in NYC specifically given it's not a swing state and when there is a lack of enthusiasm in certain demographics that matter to NYC, this might be in particular be observed here, whereas in Philadelphia, Detroit, Houston and Atlanta there will be more coordinated specific ad-targetted efforts to win those voters back.

But again I do not expect this to be an issue specific to NYC, it's just it might be more pronounced or noticeable in NYC than elsewhere because of several reasons and for the simple fact that NYC is huge.

But i agree that cities like Chicago willl observe a similar fate and that we will also see a decline in the margin that Biden wins Illinois with and that this in part explains why the popular vote might be competitive or is competitive at the moment.

The fact that Biden is struggling to get his message across in several of the big cities or urban areas.

This 100% except the NYC population loss numbers seem a bit iffy to me, but that’s sort of besides the point.

I’d def emphasize the point you made about NYC having so many different ethnic pockets sort of like Miami does with Cubans - these are the types of places where Trump made significant gains in 2020 and seems ripe to further them in November.

[wnwnwn]

It´s mostly speculation from Zeldin, supossed latino/black/asian trends and jewish/zionist issues.

[kwabbit]

Houston, LA, and Chicago should be expected to swing significantly right. Trump made large gains with the Hispanic electorate and small gains with the Black electorate in those cities in 2020, and if the polls are even a little bit true he'll make further gains in 2024.

NY is expected to shift further right because of local media obsessing over crime and Asian voters in the outer boroughs, but outside of that it's not that different from the other big, diverse cities in the country.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

Chicago, LA, and Houston probably also swing right because Hispanics will swing hard right again.

Philidelphia is dependent on black voters because it doesn't have a huge Hispanic population. I would bet black turnout dips though.

[holtridge]

Since 1972 when has New York City swung to the right? I don't know if Reagan even done well in all precincts.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden will win NY 57/43

[RI]

Since 1972 when has New York City swung to the right? I don't know if Reagan even done well in all precincts.

1980, 2000 (barely), 2004, 2016, 2020