What will be the Miami-Dade of 2024?

[SnowLabrador]

Inspired by last night's Georgia Supreme Court election and how poorly Barrow did in metro Atlanta. What county will unexpectedly swing ~20 points rightward (or leftward) from 2020?

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

NYC could swing 20% right. Seems like it will have a lot of Biden -> Trump or Biden -> Stay home voters.

Although that still wouldn’t come close to Miami Dade, as a lot of people are expecting NYC to swing right. But Miami Dade was a complete shock, even the biggest GOP hacks didn’t expect it to be within 15, much less 8.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

NYC isn't moving right my current Pred is Biden wins NY 57/43

[ProgressiveModerate]

Pockets of NYC and Arab areas around Detroit are possibilities. Perhaps Miami-Dade will be the Miami-Dade of 2024 unironically.

CA Central Valley and Vegas are other possibilities - very low educational attainment amongst the Hispanic voters Democrats have traditionally relied on.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump is only up 6% in FL it's still winnable

[Vern]

NYC isn't moving right my current Pred is Biden wins NY 57/43

That would be an improvement for Trump since 2024, and in order for him to get that type of improvement, NYC would have to swing rightward.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Could it possibly be Metro Atlanta? Afterall Miami-Dade did trend D for three cycles straight and then snapped back significantly. That could possibly explain why Trump is polling well in Georgia.

[Yelnoc]

Could it possibly be Metro Atlanta? Afterall Miami-Dade did trend D for three cycles straight and then snapped back significantly. That could possibly explain why Trump is polling well in Georgia.

I'm worried this could be the case. I think Dems are making a huge mistake downplaying the movement of black voters away from Biden and towards either Trump or staying home as a polling error. If that comes to pass, Atlanta will be ground zero.

[Vern]

Could it possibly be Metro Atlanta? Afterall Miami-Dade did trend D for three cycles straight and then snapped back significantly. That could possibly explain why Trump is polling well in Georgia.

I'm worried this could be the case. I think Dems are making a huge mistake downplaying the movement of black voters away from Biden and towards either Trump or staying home as a polling error. If that comes to pass, Atlanta will be ground zero.

This election is going to be so interesting to see how voters end up voting. And how it could affect how each party moves forward.

[Yelnoc]

Could it possibly be Metro Atlanta? Afterall Miami-Dade did trend D for three cycles straight and then snapped back significantly. That could possibly explain why Trump is polling well in Georgia.

I'm worried this could be the case. I think Dems are making a huge mistake downplaying the movement of black voters away from Biden and towards either Trump or staying home as a polling error. If that comes to pass, Atlanta will be ground zero.

This election is going to be so interesting to see how voters end up voting. And how it could affect how each party moves forward.

Agreed. My guy feeling is that over the past decade, voters have been sorting themselves by educational attainment. I fear 2024 will be the culmination of that process, after which the Democratic Party will be the party of the higher educated and the Republican Party will be the party of everyone else. Which is terrible news for Democrats.

[SnowLabrador]

Could it possibly be Metro Atlanta? Afterall Miami-Dade did trend D for three cycles straight and then snapped back significantly. That could possibly explain why Trump is polling well in Georgia.

I honestly think after last night that this could be the case.

[iceman]

Possible Candidates:

Harris county, TX
Fulton county, GA
Philadelphia, PA
Clark County, NV
Cuyahoga County, OH
Wayne County, MI

[Devils30]

Miami-Dade might be. Could see a 55-42 Trump win here.

[dspNY]

I don't think it will be any of the counties mentioned in this thread. The two most likely counties I could see this happening in are Palm Beach (FL) and the Rio Grande Valley counties in TX, which already shifted right in 2020

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

Clark County, NV on the off chance the polls are right there for once.

[2016]

I think Trump will win by Miami-Dade by about 25,000 so 52-47 for him there.

[GAinDC]

Could it possibly be Metro Atlanta? Afterall Miami-Dade did trend D for three cycles straight and then snapped back significantly. That could possibly explain why Trump is polling well in Georgia.

I'm worried this could be the case. I think Dems are making a huge mistake downplaying the movement of black voters away from Biden and towards either Trump or staying home as a polling error. If that comes to pass, Atlanta will be ground zero.

This election is going to be so interesting to see how voters end up voting. And how it could affect how each party moves forward.

Agreed. My guy feeling is that over the past decade, voters have been sorting themselves by educational attainment. I fear 2024 will be the culmination of that process, after which the Democratic Party will be the party of the higher educated and the Republican Party will be the party of everyone else. Which is terrible news for Democrats.

Then wouldn’t Biden make massive gains in the ATL suburbs since they have high rates of educational attainment?

And why didn’t we see any sign of this in 2022?

[iceman]

I don't think it will be any of the counties mentioned in this thread. The two most likely counties I could see this happening in are Palm Beach (FL) and the Rio Grande Valley counties in TX, which already shifted right in 2020

I live in Palm Beach county, and you may be right there’s a huge possibility this county will see massive swing to the right. But as of the moment, I think Biden narrowly holds on at 51-47%

[2016]

I don't think it will be any of the counties mentioned in this thread. The two most likely counties I could see this happening in are Palm Beach (FL) and the Rio Grande Valley counties in TX, which already shifted right in 2020

I live in Palm Beach county, and you may be right there’s a huge possibility this county will see massive swing to the right. But as of the moment, I think Biden narrowly holds on at 51-47%

Yeah, I think so too. Trump wins Dade but Biden narrowly holds Palm Beach.

Trump shouldn't be in a competitive Race but everyone in FL and elsewhere seems to get more mad by the Day on Joe Biden.

I think Biden mostly missed his mark reaching out to more disaffected former Trump Supporters like me.

Trumps Ohio Rally + the "Reich Ad" rings sour in me.

[ottermax]

2018 gave somewhat of a preview of 2020 in that Democrats underperformed in the Rio Grande Valley and South Florida.

Based on 2022 Democrats generally underperformed quite a bit in Harris County, the Deep South, California, Florida, and New York.

But part of what made Miami-Dade so surprising in 2020 was the timing of the results and how they set the tone of election night. Florida is an early state on election night so it will continue to be observed closely, so this year I think Georgia is the most at-risk state to have a shock rightward shift. On the other hand I can see Kentucky or Indiana giving us a counternarrative potentially given the current polling in the Midwest.

[ProgressiveModerate]

2018 gave somewhat of a preview of 2020 in that Democrats underperformed in the Rio Grande Valley and South Florida.

Based on 2022 Democrats generally underperformed quite a bit in Harris County, the Deep South, California, Florida, and New York.

But part of what made Miami-Dade so surprising in 2020 was the timing of the results and how they set the tone of election night. Florida is an early state on election night so it will continue to be observed closely, so this year I think Georgia is the most at-risk state to have a shock rightward shift. On the other hand I can see Kentucky or Indiana giving us a counternarrative potentially given the current polling in the Midwest.

Agree with the places you listed except Harris County - the County swung basically in line with the state from 2020 Pres for statewide races and Republicans didn’t find tons of success on the local level with judges and stuff - infact much of their crossover support from 2018 eroded.

Harris County is one of those places with a lot of very low turnout nonwhite communities - if there’s a surge in Trump supporting voters who didn’t show up in the past, then maybe, though this already sort of happened in 2020 yet Harris County still swung left.

[wnwnwn]

Rockland County?
I don´t think NYC will swing much outside of some jewish areas.

[dspNY]

Rockland County?
I don´t think NYC will swing much outside of some jewish areas.

I’m from there originally and I could definitely see that.

I could also see lots of suburban counties be like Miami-Dade but in the other direction. Trump did terribly in suburban areas in the primary

[ProgressiveModerate]

Rockland County?
I don´t think NYC will swing much outside of some jewish areas.

In theory, but so many of those precincts are already approaching 100% Republican that large swings are tricky or mathematically impossible. If the County lurches right it’ll be from increased Jewish turnout.

[Yelnoc]

Could it possibly be Metro Atlanta? Afterall Miami-Dade did trend D for three cycles straight and then snapped back significantly. That could possibly explain why Trump is polling well in Georgia.

I'm worried this could be the case. I think Dems are making a huge mistake downplaying the movement of black voters away from Biden and towards either Trump or staying home as a polling error. If that comes to pass, Atlanta will be ground zero.

This election is going to be so interesting to see how voters end up voting. And how it could affect how each party moves forward.

Agreed. My guy feeling is that over the past decade, voters have been sorting themselves by educational attainment. I fear 2024 will be the culmination of that process, after which the Democratic Party will be the party of the higher educated and the Republican Party will be the party of everyone else. Which is terrible news for Democrats.

Then wouldn’t Biden make massive gains in the ATL suburbs since they have high rates of educational attainment?

And why didn’t we see any sign of this in 2022?

Didn't he make massive gains in the Atlanta suburbs in 2020?

In the hypothetical new arrangement, midterms like 2022 would lean towards Dems due to their new base being better educated and thus higher-propensity voters.