Prime Group/CSOR-D: Biden leads WI, PI, MI, tie in NV, Trump leads GA, NC, FL, AZ

[wbrocks67]

Have no idea who these people are, they popped up on 538

MI:
Biden 52%
Trump 48%

Biden 44%
Trump 42%
Kennedy 10%
Stein 2%
West 2%

PA:
Biden 51%
Trump 49%

Biden 45%
Trump 42%
RFK 9%
Stein 2%
West 2%

WI:
Biden 51%
Trump 49%

Biden 44%
Trump 44%
RFK Jr. 7%
West 3%
Stein 2%

AZ:
Trump 51%
Biden 49%

Trump 44%
Biden 40%
RFK Jr. 11%
West 3%
Stein 2%

FL:
Trump 53%
Biden 47%

Trump 48%
Biden 39%
RFK Jr. 9%
West 3%
Stein 1%

NV:
Biden 50%
Trump 50%

Trump 44%
Biden 43%
RFJ Jr. 10%
West 3%
Stein 0%

NC:
Trump 51%
Biden 49%

Trump 45%
Biden 42%
RFK Jr. 11%
West 2%
Stein 1%

GA:
Trump 51%
Biden 49%

Trump 42%
Biden 41%
RFK Jr. 11%
West 5%
Stein 1%

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20240522_prime_CSOR.pdf

[GeorgiaModerate]

I'm unfamiliar with the pollster, but the sponsor (Citizens to Save Our Republic) is a Democratic superpac.

[President Johnson]

Interesting Biden does best in Michigan here. Seems accurate though.

[Lief 🗽]

Finally, some REAL polls. Thank you!

[wbrocks67]

This poll brings the 538 MI average to a near tie (Trump +0.1)

[dspNY]

I take these with a grain of salt. The Nevada result is interesting because we now have Nevada tied in two polls today. The Georgia poll is only one point different compared to Morning Consult. The Rust belt polls are a bit rosy for Biden but I could definitely see MI as Biden +1 and PA and WI tied

[dspNY]

Nevada is also coming back into line with its 2020 relationship as bluer than Arizona in both this poll and Morning Consult where Biden trails

[GAinDC]

I take these with a grain of salt. The Nevada result is interesting because we now have Nevada tied in two polls today. The Georgia poll is only one point different compared to Morning Consult. The Rust belt polls are a bit rosy for Biden but I could definitely see MI as Biden +1 and PA and WI tied

Not that different. MC is a +3 Trump lead in Georgia and this is a +2 Trump lead

[MR DARK BRANDON]

I take these with a grain of salt. The Nevada result is interesting because we now have Nevada tied in two polls today. The Georgia poll is only one point different compared to Morning Consult. The Rust belt polls are a bit rosy for Biden but I could definitely see MI as Biden +1 and PA and WI tied

True but Yeah I could very well see 276-262 as the final outcome

[wbrocks67]

I take these with a grain of salt. The Nevada result is interesting because we now have Nevada tied in two polls today. The Georgia poll is only one point different compared to Morning Consult. The Rust belt polls are a bit rosy for Biden but I could definitely see MI as Biden +1 and PA and WI tied

Yeah it's funny bc not only does it align with the GA and NV results, but the NC result also aligns with the Change poll we got today too.

[CookieDamage]

Promising but since it's a Dem sponsored poll I fear the numbers might be a bit rosy for Biden

[dspNY]

Interesting Biden does best in Michigan here. Seems accurate though.

He should do better in Michigan than in PA or WI because Michigan was bluer than the other two in 2020 by 2, 2.5 points

[dspNY]

Promising but since it's a Dem sponsored poll I fear the numbers might be a bit rosy for Biden

I actually think Biden has a very small lead in Michigan now with the polling we’ve seen, maybe +1. PA and WI are true tossups, and the Nevada polls indicate that it is moving back to tossup

[President Johnson]

Interesting Biden does best in Michigan here. Seems accurate though.

He should do better in Michigan than in PA or WI because Michigan was bluer than the other two in 2020 by 2, 2.5 points

Yes, but Michigan has the biggest potential for protest/third party votes. I honestly believe Biden may do better in Pennsylvania, especially with Casey on the ballot.

All other numbers look decent, though I expect Biden to lose Florida by more than six, even if he wins the election.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's game over 275

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

275/219

[MR DARK BRANDON]

275/219

Unfortunately it is still very much not game over, but some encouraging news today nonetheless.

[President Johnson]

275/219

lol its a 319 map, J6 Trump isnt gonna win anyways

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

So Trump is only up 6% im FL the DS were right where are the R hacks now saying Trump gonna win

[CookieDamage]

Interesting Biden does best in Michigan here. Seems accurate though.

He should do better in Michigan than in PA or WI because Michigan was bluer than the other two in 2020 by 2, 2.5 points

It's also bluer than the other two just period. As was the case in 2008, 12, and 16

[Progressive Pessimist]

Pretty reasonable to me.

I just don't know this pollster's history.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Interesting Biden does best in Michigan here. Seems accurate though.

He should do better in Michigan than in PA or WI because Michigan was bluer than the other two in 2020 by 2, 2.5 points

It's also bluer than the other two just period. As was the case in 2008, 12, and 16

I mean there's no real period about it. MI voted slightly to the left of the other 2 in the last 2 elections.  These things are true until they aren't. Universal swing isn't a thing.

[Vern]

If these numbers are the best a Democrat  sponsored polling company can do, then Biden is in trouble. He really needs to kill it in the debate in June if he wants to change things.

[wbrocks67]

If these numbers are the best a Democrat  sponsored polling company can do, then Biden is in trouble. He really needs to kill it in the debate in June if he wants to change things.

Bad polls for Biden = here's how it's bad for Biden
Decent/good polls for Biden = nope they're wrong, here's how it's bad for Biden
Great polls for Biden = these must be fake, they're overestimating Ds again, outlier, here's how it's bad for Biden

I'm not saying these polls are gospel but this is the truth with a lot of people on this forum. A lot of these results do line up with recent polling results we've gotten.

[Vern]

If these numbers are the best a Democrat  sponsored polling company can do, then Biden is in trouble. He really needs to kill it in the debate in June if he wants to change things.

Bad polls for Biden = here's how it's bad for Biden
Decent/good polls for Biden = nope they're wrong, here's how it's bad for Biden
Great polls for Biden = these must be fake, they're overestimating Ds again, outlier, here's how it's bad for Biden

I'm not saying these polls are gospel but this is the truth with a lot of people on this forum. A lot of these results do line up with recent polling results we've gotten.

Unfortunately, I tend to not believe any polls sponsored by either party.