Qpac - Biden +1 H2H, +3 vs field

[MR DARK BRANDON]

https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3898

Biden - 48
Trump - 47

[President Johnson]

It's close to where I believe the race stands at this point. However, Qpac hasn't the best reputation.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

It's close to where I believe the race stands at this point. However, Qpac hasn't the best reputation.

I find they’ve either been Biden’s best or worst poll this cycle. Rare to get a “normal” result like this from them.

[kwabbit]

It's close to where I believe the race stands at this point. However, Qpac hasn't the best reputation.

I find they’ve either been Biden’s best or worst poll this cycle. Rare to get a “normal” result like this from them.

When have they been his worst? It either seems like they normal or outlier good for Biden.

[SnowLabrador]

So the race is somewhere between a tie and double-digit Trump. I buy that.

[GAinDC]

wasn't it a tie last time? So this would be movement to Biden but in the MOE

Biden job approval also increases from 35% (yikes) to 39% (approaching meh territory)

[GeorgiaModerate]

So the race is somewhere between a tie and double-digit Trump. I buy that.

This is contemptibly hackish.  Which pollster has Trump up double digits nationally? 

Spoiler: nobody.  I just went through the 538 database back to the beginning of March, and there are NO (none, zero, nada) polls with Trump up double digits.  They range from Trump+9 to Biden+5.  That's a far different range than "between a tie and double-digit Trump".

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump isn't gonna win the only red avatar that thinks that are SL and Milineal Moderate and Georgia Moderate already gave them warnings about 22

It's in the complaints thread and it's nothing but repeat, rerun, repeat

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

Dubious whether a +1 PV lead would equate to a national win. Gore won by similar to that and Hillary won by more than that, but both lost the election.

[dspNY]

RFK Jr gets 14% and takes more from Trump than Biden. There’s no way he’ll get 14% in November. Quinnipiac finds Biden +3 with RFK Jr included (Biden 41, Trump 38, RFK Jr 13, others/undecided

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Dubious whether a +1 PV lead would equate to a national win. Gore won by similar to that and Hillary won by more than that, but both lost the election.

+1 is tossup imo.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

According to Pew (https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2021/06/30/behind-bidens-2020-victory/), Biden won by 4.5% while Trump won white voters by 12%, and Biden won black voters by 84%, and Hispanic voters by 21%.

According to QPAC, Trump is winning the white vote by 13%, while Biden is only winning the black vote by 54%, and the Hispanic vote by 5%.


Using forensic statistical econometric based analysis, we can determine that TRUMP is winning back MI, WI, PA, Georgia, AZ, and NV easily. And he has a chance at winning NM and VA.



Devastating poll for Biden. Even QPAC oversampling minority voters who won't be turning out in 2024 can't find good results for him.

[wbrocks67]

According to Pew (https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2021/06/30/behind-bidens-2020-victory/), Biden won by 4.5% while Trump won white voters by 12%, and Biden won black voters by 84%, and Hispanic voters by 21%.

According to QPAC, Trump is winning the white vote by 13%, while Biden is only winning the black vote by 54%, and the Hispanic vote by 5%.


Using forensic statistical econometric based analysis, we can determine that TRUMP is winning back MI, WI, PA, Georgia, AZ, and NV easily. And he has a chance at winning NM and VA.



Devastating poll for Biden. Even QPAC oversampling minority voters who won't be turning out in 2024 can't find good results for him.

Q-Pac's crosstabs have always been a mess, even when they had Biden +6 that one month.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Where are the R hacks now saying Trump will win

[wbrocks67]

RFK appears to be collapsing, his favorability IIRC was decent in Q's polls but now it's down to 25/43

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

Biden Job Approval at 39%

He’s not leading.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden Job Approval at 39%

He’s not leading.

Lol you wish

[CookieDamage]

According to Pew (https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2021/06/30/behind-bidens-2020-victory/), Biden won by 4.5% while Trump won white voters by 12%, and Biden won black voters by 84%, and Hispanic voters by 21%.

According to QPAC, Trump is winning the white vote by 13%, while Biden is only winning the black vote by 54%, and the Hispanic vote by 5%.


Using forensic statistical econometric based analysis, we can determine that TRUMP is winning back MI, WI, PA, Georgia, AZ, and NV easily. And he has a chance at winning NM and VA.



Devastating poll for Biden. Even QPAC oversampling minority voters who won't be turning out in 2024 can't find good results for him.

Biden will definitely be winning the black vote by more than 54. He'll win it by like 70 or so.

[GAinDC]

Biden Job Approval at 39%

He’s not leading.

Up 4 points since their last poll. You'd better hope that trend doesn't continue because Biden doesn't even need majority approval to beat "President Unified Reich/Let's Outlaw Birth Control"

[wbrocks67]

Biden Job Approval at 39%

He’s not leading.

Why is this so hard to understand? approval/favorability =/= vote share

Same reason why Trump is polling at 47% with a favorability barely over 40%

[2016]

Biden Job Approval at 39%

He’s not leading.

Up 4 points since their last poll. You'd better hope that trend doesn't continue because Biden doesn't even need majority approval to beat "President Unified Reich/Let's Outlaw Birth Control"

Biden at 39 % and 41 % in a Full Field makes sense BUT Biden at 39 % and at 48 % in a H2H with Trump makes no sense at all.

It's inconceivable Biden outperforms his JA by 8 Points. Not happening!

[GAinDC]

Biden Job Approval at 39%

He’s not leading.

Up 4 points since their last poll. You'd better hope that trend doesn't continue because Biden doesn't even need majority approval to beat "President Unified Reich/Let's Outlaw Birth Control"

Biden at 39 % and 41 % in a Full Field makes sense BUT Biden at 39 % and at 48 % in a H2H with Trump makes no sense at all.

It's inconceivable Biden outperforms his JA by 8 Points. Not happening!

well according to this poll Biden and Trump both are

[GeorgiaModerate]

Biden Job Approval at 39%

He’s not leading.

Up 4 points since their last poll. You'd better hope that trend doesn't continue because Biden doesn't even need majority approval to beat "President Unified Reich/Let's Outlaw Birth Control"

Biden at 39 % and 41 % in a Full Field makes sense BUT Biden at 39 % and at 48 % in a H2H with Trump makes no sense at all.

It's inconceivable Biden outperforms his JA by 8 Points. Not happening!

I do not think that word means what you think it means.

[GAinDC]

Biden Job Approval at 39%

He’s not leading.

Up 4 points since their last poll. You'd better hope that trend doesn't continue because Biden doesn't even need majority approval to beat "President Unified Reich/Let's Outlaw Birth Control"

Biden at 39 % and 41 % in a Full Field makes sense BUT Biden at 39 % and at 48 % in a H2H with Trump makes no sense at all.

It's inconceivable Biden outperforms his JA by 8 Points. Not happening!

You also have to be in Dem social circles to understand that Biden will probably outperform his job approval this year.

I know many people who don’t approve of Biden’s job as president and don’t want him to run again but are still going to vote for him this year. And honestly, as we get closer to the election, many of those people will probably start to approve him.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Pollsters: Show a complete dead heat for months on end

TalkElections: "aha, see this proves that my candidate is clearly the favourite"