NY - Siena - Biden +9

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1793235015452520789?t=0jrnmXDbhBGRwjOEApU...

[Unelectable Bystander]

Biden is underperforming the generic democrat by 20% with black voters, 18% with Jewish voters, and 14% with young voters. He can’t possibly be a bad candidate. The pollsters just keep over-representing those infamous pro Trump democrat constituencies. Non response bias.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

D+27 sample

[Sir Mohamed]

Nah, sorry. The other poll from a few days ago with Biden +19 looks much more accurate.

What's close to accurate might be Trump at 38%, though I expect him to crack 40% unless there's a high 3rd party vote share. The rest is probably Dems coming home as the election nears.

[SnowLabrador]

Further evidence that Biden is toxic.

[wbrocks67]

Biden is underperforming the generic democrat by 20% with black voters, 18% with Jewish voters, and 14% with young voters. He can’t possibly be a bad candidate. The pollsters just keep over-representing those infamous pro Trump democrat constituencies. Non response bias.

He's not underperforming them by that much, Biden gets 47% and the generic Dem gets 49%. They're nearly equal.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Sadly it looks like Biden is going to get New York this time around, but if Trump can somehow get it to single digits it would be huge. Right now I'm thinking it's going to be around <15ish but that may change. Still a strong performance from Trump in the Empire State could help house Republicans like Lawler and D'Esposito significantly. 

[Eraserhead]

I never thought Hochul could perform as poorly as she did.

[heatcharger]

I never thought Hochul could perform as poorly as she did.

New York is changing my friend. The hometown hero is home and New Yorkers are loving it.

[RI]

Result of the close 2032 Presidential election:

[iceman]

Result of the close 2032 Presidential election:

If New York and New Jersey goes atlas blue, what makes you think Pennsylvania will stay red?

[President Johnson]

Biden is underperforming the generic democrat by 20% with black voters, 18% with Jewish voters, and 14% with young voters. He can’t possibly be a bad candidate. The pollsters just keep over-representing those infamous pro Trump democrat constituencies. Non response bias.

Yeah, I find these differences hard to believe. Yet, it still makes me feel worried that Biden really underperforms here and elsewhere.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

New York is changing my friend. The hometown hero is home and New Yorkers are loving it.

The "hometown hero" that lives in Floridump? Yeah sure.

Anyway, Biden is not winning NY by only 9. Garbage poll.

[dspNY]

Sadly it looks like Biden is going to get New York this time around, but if Trump can somehow get it to single digits it would be huge. Right now I'm thinking it's going to be around <15ish but that may change. Still a strong performance from Trump in the Empire State could help house Republicans like Lawler and D'Esposito significantly. 

I live in NY and Biden +15, give or take 2 points is about right

[President Johnson]

New York is changing my friend. The hometown hero is home and New Yorkers are loving it.

The "hometown hero" that lives in Floridump? Yeah sure.

Anyway, Biden is not winning NY by only 9. Garbage poll.

Trump loved his hometown so much that he ran from it as fast as he could.

[heatcharger]

Italians and Hispanics love

DONALD JOHN TRUMP. And it isn't even close.

Thank you Bronx!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Italians and Hispanics love

DONALD JOHN TRUMP. And it isn't even close.

Lol NY will be 57/43
Thank you Bronx!

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

People need to accept Biden is just a terrible candidate who can't clearly communicate ideas. This is not his fault, most 82-year-olds are like this. He should've stepped down after 1 term.

[President Johnson]

People need to accept Biden is just a terrible candidate who can't clearly communicate ideas. This is not his fault, most 82-year-olds are like this. He should've stepped down after 1 term.

I honestly can't imagine there are so many people saying "hey, I like my Democratic lawmakers and their policies, but Biden is an old fool and therefore I vote for indicted insurrectionist Donald freakin' Trump who's barely younger". I could buy this argument with a 50-year old version of John Kasich as his challenger (ergo a guy like Spencer Cox), but not against Trump.

Biden in my opinion has an enthusiasm issue with a segment of the Democratic base, most likely they will come home in the fall though. Whether that's enough to win the election in enough six or seven battleground states is another question.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

People need to accept Biden is just a terrible candidate who can't clearly communicate ideas. This is not his fault, most 82-year-olds are like this. He should've stepped down after 1 term.

I honestly can't imagine there are so many people saying "hey, I like my Democratic lawmakers and their policies, but Biden is an old fool and therefore I vote for indicted insurrectionist Donald freakin' Trump who's barely younger". I could buy this argument with a 50-year old version of John Kasich as his challenger (ergo a guy like Spencer Cox), but not against Trump.

Biden in my opinion has an enthusiasm issue with a segment of the Democratic base, most likely they will come home in the fall though. Whether that's enough to win the election in enough six or seven battleground states is another question.

Trump sucks, but many people viewed his economy as great. Also, he is a New York billionaire so people see him as more moderate on the abortion issue than other Republicans. Tbh many voters are not as rigidly ideological as internet bubbles are, and instead vote more off vibes and who is more charismatic.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

Sadly it looks like Biden is going to get New York this time around, but if Trump can somehow get it to single digits it would be huge. Right now I'm thinking it's going to be around <15ish but that may change. Still a strong performance from Trump in the Empire State could help house Republicans like Lawler and D'Esposito significantly. 

Even if Biden wins by 10-15 I still think D’Esposito, Lawler, and maybe a few other NY Rs go down. Reason is presidential elections have little ticket splitting and even a +10% Biden victory is still better than the Hochul at the top of the ticker in 2022.

[President Johnson]

People need to accept Biden is just a terrible candidate who can't clearly communicate ideas. This is not his fault, most 82-year-olds are like this. He should've stepped down after 1 term.

I honestly can't imagine there are so many people saying "hey, I like my Democratic lawmakers and their policies, but Biden is an old fool and therefore I vote for indicted insurrectionist Donald freakin' Trump who's barely younger". I could buy this argument with a 50-year old version of John Kasich as his challenger (ergo a guy like Spencer Cox), but not against Trump.

Biden in my opinion has an enthusiasm issue with a segment of the Democratic base, most likely they will come home in the fall though. Whether that's enough to win the election in enough six or seven battleground states is another question.

Trump sucks, but many people viewed his economy as great. Also, he is a New York billionaire so people see him as more moderate on the abortion issue than other Republicans. Tbh many voters are not as rigidly ideological as internet bubbles are, and instead vote more off vibes and who is more charismatic.

Maybe, though it's a really tiresome argument since Biden's economy is actually pretty good. Trump is not going to bring back prices to 2019 levels. And people also seem to forget the entire last year of his term, which also hurt the economy. When the real tests came, he failed horribly despite alreading being in the job for three years. Biden needs to remind people where things were in January 2021.

[wbrocks67]

A lot of lies going around this thread, but Biden performs similarly to the Generic Dem, outside of his *left flank* by a few %:

Democrats: 71% Biden, 75% Dem
Republicans: 9% Biden, 8% Dem
Independents: 37% Biden, 37% Dem
Moderates: 46% Biden, 47% Dem
Liberals: 84% Biden, 89% Dem
Conservatives: 17% Biden, 17% Dem
Whites: 46% Biden, 46% Dem
Blacks: 63% Biden, 72% Dem
Hispanics: 44% Biden, 44% Dem
18-34: 44% Biden, 52% Dem
35-54: 44% Biden, 47% Dem
55+: 53% Biden, 50% Dem

His worst areas compared to a generic dem are among left flank - black voters, young voters, liberal voters, but nothing more than 9%.

Given that context, there's obviously a lot of room for Biden to grow here.

[Anti-Trump Truth Socialite JD Vance Enjoying Juror]

+9 statewide, but only -2 Upstate. The realignment is real folks.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

+9 is exactly what I expect.