NH - NHJournal/Praecones Analytica - tied.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://nhjournal.com/shock-poll-trump-tied-with-biden-in-solid-blue-new-hampshire/

[soundchaser]

Yawn. I don’t expect Biden to match Hassan’s 2022 margin in New Hampshire, but if this doesn’t give you 2022 flashbacks…

[iceman]

too many undecideds and 3rd party.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We aren't gonna be fooled again like in 22

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Useless poll and is worth junking since it doesn't tell us anything.

[kwabbit]

They aren’t rated terribly by 538, but any outfit that is calling a poll they commissioned a shock poll is not too trustworthy. It wouldn’t be surprising for UNH to publish a tied race and that would be notable but you can’t make much of this.

[S019]

Can they please stop polling RFK? His ballot access operation is atrocious, and he isn't going to be on the ballot in that many states.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Can they please stop polling RFK? His ballot access operation is atrocious, and he isn't going to be on the ballot in that many states.

He already qualified for the ballot in New Hampshire (and additionally seems to be well on his way to be on the ballot everywhere).

For a supporter of the Democratic Party, it seems like the values of democracy aren't really shared all that much among its supporters here and the establishment. If Democrats here are that confident that RFK jr. is going to take more from Trump than from Biden than why are so many people against him making the ballot?

[S019]

Can they please stop polling RFK? His ballot access operation is atrocious, and he isn't going to be on the ballot in that many states.

He already qualified for the ballot in New Hampshire (and additionally seems to be well on his way to be on the ballot everywhere).

For a supporter of the Democratic Party, it seems like the values of democracy aren't really shared all that much among its supporters here and the establishment. If Democrats here are that confident that RFK jr. is going to take more from Trump than from Biden than why are so many people against him making the ballot?

I mean, I'm not against him making the ballot. That said, I don't think the vision he has for the country is a positive one, and I would rather not give attention to his ideas. It's also basically a vanity campaign, and I don't think we want to send the message that bored rich people should make running for President their new favorite pastime.

[DC732]

FWIW Biden is visiting Nashua today.

[wbrocks67]

FWIW Biden is visiting Nashua today.

And?

Love how Trump doing rallies in New Jersey and New York is allegedly some smart campaign move but Biden going to .... New Hampshire is somehow seen ominous for his campaign.

Either way, I think we're supposed to be getting a UNH poll very soon so hopefully that should give us some clarity on NH. This poll, which has 30% RFK/other/someone else/no one is useless

[DC732]

FWIW Biden is visiting Nashua today.

And?

Love how Trump doing rallies in New Jersey and New York is allegedly some smart campaign move but Biden going to .... New Hampshire is somehow seen ominous for his campaign.

Either way, I think we're supposed to be getting a UNH poll very soon so hopefully that should give us some clarity on NH. This poll, which has 30% RFK/other/someone else/no one is useless

And a campaign stop here is indicative the Biden campaign may have internal polls shows him in the same range. Didn’t think I would have to spell it out for users of this forum.

[wbrocks67]

FWIW Biden is visiting Nashua today.

And?

Love how Trump doing rallies in New Jersey and New York is allegedly some smart campaign move but Biden going to .... New Hampshire is somehow seen ominous for his campaign.

Either way, I think we're supposed to be getting a UNH poll very soon so hopefully that should give us some clarity on NH. This poll, which has 30% RFK/other/someone else/no one is useless

And a campaign stop here is indicative the Biden campaign may have internal polls shows him in the same range. Didn’t think I would have to spell it out for users of this forum.

If you're an active user on this forum you'd know that one visit to a state 6 months out definitely does not mean that. If that were the case, then I guess New Jersey and New York are close as well.

[Devils30]

Biden will win NH but a small win might be the beginning of the end.

[2016]

Biden will win NH but a small win might be the beginning of the end.

Yeah, Biden won NH by some 60,000 Votes in 2020. Anything less could spell trouble for him. The State Polls are now lining up proper with the National Polls. That's why you'll see at the moment MN, VA, NH competitive.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden will win NH but a small win might be the beginning of the end.

Yeah, Biden won NH by some 60,000 Votes in 2020. Anything less could spell trouble for him. The State Polls are now lining up proper with the National Polls. That's why you'll see at the moment MN, VA, NH competitive.

Lol Rs won't win MN or VA or NH Hillary won NH by 60K not Biden he won NH by 7%. This is a poll done with Kennedy

Any Klobuchar is gonna win MN and so is Kaine leading by 12 carrying Biden

They haven't polled the Gov race in NH that's why they think it's competitive

[Devils30]

Biden will win NH but a small win might be the beginning of the end.

Yeah, Biden won NH by some 60,000 Votes in 2020. Anything less could spell trouble for him. The State Polls are now lining up proper with the National Polls. That's why you'll see at the moment MN, VA, NH competitive.

I think its important to keep up ads in GA, AZ, NV and not triage them based on a bad poll. These states might not really be worse than MI WI PA, just polling usually underestimates Dems more in those 3 (or overestimates in Midwest).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden isn't triaging NV or AZ we got S races in them but GA, NC and TX are pure wave insurance

I have TX going back and Forth going D because there are always surprises AZ and GA going blue in 20 and WI S going Red in 22 were surprised, now I am Pred TX going blue but it's pure wave insurance

[Sir Mohamed]

Polls with 36-36 should be outright banned/not published.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

They publish a NH Prez poll but no Gov race

[kwabbit]

Can they please stop polling RFK? His ballot access operation is atrocious, and he isn't going to be on the ballot in that many states.

His ballot access operation has received a lot of praise. They are probably going to be on the ballot in every state. RFK is well-funded and ballot access has been prioritized.

Cornel West, on the other hand, has completely missed the mark and he'll only get access in a handful of states, not too many more than Kanye did.

[mjba257]

FWIW Biden is visiting Nashua today.

And?

Love how Trump doing rallies in New Jersey and New York is allegedly some smart campaign move but Biden going to .... New Hampshire is somehow seen ominous for his campaign.

Either way, I think we're supposed to be getting a UNH poll very soon so hopefully that should give us some clarity on NH. This poll, which has 30% RFK/other/someone else/no one is useless

And a campaign stop here is indicative the Biden campaign may have internal polls shows him in the same range. Didn’t think I would have to spell it out for users of this forum.

If you're an active user on this forum you'd know that one visit to a state 6 months out definitely does not mean that. If that were the case, then I guess New Jersey and New York are close as well.

Agree. It is very common for candidates after they've wrapped up the nomination but before the general heats up to visit places that are not expected to be close. During early summer, campaigns have a lot of time and this provides an opportunity to visit places often overlooked during the fall. Plus, in the case of NH for Biden, a way to lock down a state that could be competitive under the right circumstances. NH isn't a solid blue state unlike the rest of New England, it was razor thin as recently as 2016, and has an anti-incumbency bias, so it's not unreasonable to think the state will right-shift this year. So might as well make sure it stays loyal now, rather than neglect and risk it becoming competitive.

[Vern]

Honestly, as of right now, I’m expecting the map to look like 2016 plus NV. So NH being close isn’t shocking, but I don’t think Trump with win it.