Trump leading big among people who don't follow the news

[GAinDC]

https://twitter.com/RichardHanania/status/1792384015246467234

Makes sense I guess, but still wild to see such a disparity.

I can attest to this from experience. This cycle, it seems like (in my circle of friends, family and colleagues) people who are the most chronically online (like those of us on Atlas) think Trump has the edge, while the people I know who are the most uninformed are very Pro Trump. Meanwhile, my friends and family who are more casual observers of politics think Biden will win.

[wbrocks67]

Makes sense, polling wise, given the discourse and findings around non-voters going for Trump.

However, if you look at this in a vaccuum, it's objectively not good for him. The closer we get to the election, the more people *will be* tuned in - and by and large, the people who have been tuned in and are following what's going on don't like him. Sure, some people will still vote for him even once the election nears, but this says to me that once people start paying attention, things can shift very easily.

I am not surprised at all to see people who are completely disengaged or are super apathetic more prone to Trump. However, it's key for pollsters to actually find out if these people vote. If you didn't vote in 2020 (or 2022), the likelihood of you voting this year seems pretty slim.

[President Johnson]

Makes sense as Biden's base is high propensity voters.

Also confirms the latest trend of an increasing division between education. We're also seeing this pattern in other Western countries. Right-wing populists tend to do better with lesser educated voters, while liberal and left-wing parties are strong with high educated people. My dad even once said that to vote left of center out of conviction requires some intellect (although I would argue there are numerous conservative intellectuals, but they're not really welcome in today's Republican Party).

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Makes sense as Biden's base is high propensity voters.

Also confirms the latest trend of an increasing division between education. We're also seeing this pattern in other Western countries. Right-wing populists tend to do better with lesser educated voters, while liberal and left-wing parties are strong with high educated people. My dad even once said that to vote left of center out of conviction requires some intellect (although I would argue there are numerous conservative intellectuals, but they're not really welcome in today's Republican Party).

I'm not sure that what you support is actually left of center, both in USA and Germany.

[SnowLabrador]

Makes sense.

[President Johnson]

Makes sense as Biden's base is high propensity voters.

Also confirms the latest trend of an increasing division between education. We're also seeing this pattern in other Western countries. Right-wing populists tend to do better with lesser educated voters, while liberal and left-wing parties are strong with high educated people. My dad even once said that to vote left of center out of conviction requires some intellect (although I would argue there are numerous conservative intellectuals, but they're not really welcome in today's Republican Party).

I'm not sure that what you support is actually left of center, both in USA and Germany.

Imagine thinking Biden isn't left of center.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Makes sense as Biden's base is high propensity voters.

Also confirms the latest trend of an increasing division between education. We're also seeing this pattern in other Western countries. Right-wing populists tend to do better with lesser educated voters, while liberal and left-wing parties are strong with high educated people. My dad even once said that to vote left of center out of conviction requires some intellect (although I would argue there are numerous conservative intellectuals, but they're not really welcome in today's Republican Party).

I'm not sure that what you support is actually left of center, both in USA and Germany.

Imagine thinking Biden isn't left of center.

I don't think he is.

Perhaps for the USA he is, but that tells you a lot about the USA.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Another obvious reflection of our educational divide.

This looks bad for Biden, but is probably negated by those less-informed voters for Trump also being less likely to turn out.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Makes sense, polling wise, given the discourse and findings around non-voters going for Trump.

However, if you look at this in a vaccuum, it's objectively not good for him. The closer we get to the election, the more people *will be* tuned in - and by and large, the people who have been tuned in and are following what's going on don't like him. Sure, some people will still vote for him even once the election nears, but this says to me that once people start paying attention, things can shift very easily.

I am not surprised at all to see people who are completely disengaged or are super apathetic more prone to Trump. However, it's key for pollsters to actually find out if these people vote. If you didn't vote in 2020 (or 2022), the likelihood of you voting this year seems pretty slim.

To add on to this, this is why part of my theory is that Biden will generally hold up better in the main swing states than nationwide - the campaigns investing disproportionate resources in these states in a way makes those voters more engaged and perhaps marginally more likely to behave as such.

We sort of saw this in 2022 a bit where Democrats generally held up disproportionately well in states/races that saw a lot of investment from both sides. Almost everywhere else they collapsed.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

I don't think he is.

Perhaps for the USA he is, but that tells you a lot about the USA.

No, it tells a lot about the mindset of you and others who still believe in the "American liberals would be right-wing in Europe" falsehood.

That BS was already debunked: "The Republican Party leans much farther right than most traditional conservative parties in Western Europe and Canada...The Democratic Party, in contrast, is positioned closer to mainstream liberal parties."

SOURCE: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/06/26/opinion/sunday/republican-platform-far-right.html

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Good thing it is unlikely Biden gains with this group before the election.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

I don't think he is.

Perhaps for the USA he is, but that tells you a lot about the USA.

No, it tells a lot about the mindset of you and others who still believe in the "American liberals would be right-wing in Europe" falsehood.

That BS was already debunked: "The Republican Party leans much farther right than most traditional conservative parties in Western Europe and Canada...The Democratic Party, in contrast, is positioned closer to mainstream liberal parties."

SOURCE: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/06/26/opinion/sunday/republican-platform-far-right.html

Liberal parties in Europe aren't left of center in Western Europe.

That's Lib Dem, LREM, etc. I don't consider that left-of-center really. That's center. In some countries even right of center due to economic positions of mainstream liberal parties (like FDP). And in a lot of ways Democrats also resemble christian democratic parties that aren't too much right of center, like CDU.

Agree with Republican being further right than most traditional conservative parties though.

You may dislike me for saying this but I stand by this. I don't think i'm saying anything controversial here.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I don't think he is.

Perhaps for the USA he is, but that tells you a lot about the USA.

No, it tells a lot about the mindset of you and others who still believe in the "American liberals would be right-wing in Europe" falsehood.

That BS was already debunked: "The Republican Party leans much farther right than most traditional conservative parties in Western Europe and Canada...The Democratic Party, in contrast, is positioned closer to mainstream liberal parties."

SOURCE: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/06/26/opinion/sunday/republican-platform-far-right.html

Liberal parties in Europe aren't center of left in Western Europe.

That's Lib Dem, LREM, etc. I don't consider that left-of-center really. That's center.

Agree with Republican being further right than most traditional conservative parties though.

Don’t want to diverge from the thread topic too much, but I think the answer to this question depends on the issue. On some issues, Democrats may be “further right” just because of the baseline of where we currently are - for instance our healthcare system is nowhere near as robust as many Wueopean countries so Democrats goal here right now is to largely just get to where these other European countries currently are.

On a lot of social issues (I.e. gay marriage) the US has been ahead or in line of its Western European counterparts.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Liberal parties in Europe aren't left of center in Western Europe.

That's Lib Dem, LREM, etc. I don't consider that left-of-center really. That's center.

Agree with Republican being further right than most traditional conservative parties though.

You may dislike me for saying this but I stand by this. I don't think i'm saying anything controversial here.

What you're saying is false. That's it. The analysis that measured it proves you wrong.

Democrats would be left of center of Western Europe. END OF STORY.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Don’t want to diverge from the thread topic too much, but I think the answer to this question depends on the issue. On some issues, Democrats may be “further right” just because of the baseline of where we currently are - for instance our healthcare system is nowhere near as robust as many Wueopean countries so Democrats goal here right now is to largely just get to where these other European countries currently are.

On a lot of social issues (I.e. gay marriage) the US has been ahead or in line of its Western European counterparts.

Your statement is true. However, it has to be pointed out that the primary reason why America isn't more economically in line with Western & Northern European countries is because of REPUBLICANS.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Liberal parties in Europe aren't left of center in Western Europe.

That's Lib Dem, LREM, etc. I don't consider that left-of-center really. That's center.

Agree with Republican being further right than most traditional conservative parties though.

You may dislike me for saying this but I stand by this. I don't think i'm saying anything controversial here.

What you're saying is false. That's it. The analysis that measured it proves you wrong.

Democrats would be left of center of Western Europe. END OF STORY.

I think I know better than you as i'm in Europe and more familiar with European politics than you are. All you say is just "you're false, end of story", lol.

Democrats would be centrist. There are factions that would be left-wing but they're a minority within the Democratic Party. It's not like the squad, Bernie Sanders or even Elizabeth Warren dominate the DEM party. Biden's brand is basically christian democratic, which generally is even considered center-right in most nations in Western Europe, though i wouldn't go as far for Biden specifically. Center fits it properly.

I don't think he is.

Perhaps for the USA he is, but that tells you a lot about the USA.

No, it tells a lot about the mindset of you and others who still believe in the "American liberals would be right-wing in Europe" falsehood.

That BS was already debunked: "The Republican Party leans much farther right than most traditional conservative parties in Western Europe and Canada...The Democratic Party, in contrast, is positioned closer to mainstream liberal parties."

SOURCE: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/06/26/opinion/sunday/republican-platform-far-right.html

Liberal parties in Europe aren't center of left in Western Europe.

That's Lib Dem, LREM, etc. I don't consider that left-of-center really. That's center.

Agree with Republican being further right than most traditional conservative parties though.

Don’t want to diverge from the thread topic too much, but I think the answer to this question depends on the issue. On some issues, Democrats may be “further right” just because of the baseline of where we currently are - for instance our healthcare system is nowhere near as robust as many Wueopean countries so Democrats goal here right now is to largely just get to where these other European countries currently are.

On a lot of social issues (I.e. gay marriage) the US has been ahead or in line of its Western European counterparts.

Most christian democratic and mainstream liberal parties in Western Europe also accept gay marriage as consensus and are pro-LGBTQ. There are exceptions, esp. in Eastern Europe which is generally more social conservative.

__

For Belgium, i'd say the closest equivalent is a mixture of CD&V and Open VLD which are both center-right parties here. Vooruit, PVDA and Groen are all much to the left. N-VA is right-wing. VB far right. Republican voters would only fit within those latter two parties.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

I think I know better than you as i'm in Europe and more familiar with European politics than you are. All you say is just "you're false, end of story", lol.

Democrats would be centrist. There are factions that would be left-wing but they're a minority within the Democratic Party. It's not like the squad, Bernie Sanders or even Elizabeth Warren dominate the DEM party. Biden's brand is basically christian democratic, which generally is even considered center-right in most nations in Western Europe.

No, you're just one European person with a particular political viewpoint. I posted an ANALYSIS that measured how left and right the Democratic and Republican parties would in be in peer countries.

That analysis directly contradicts your nonsense claim.

[Comrade Funk]

Anyone who spends a little time with semi-normal people already knew this. MSNBC is a bubble, but Joe likes to think Americans spend their mornings watching Morning Joe.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

I think I know better than you as i'm in Europe and more familiar with European politics than you are. All you say is just "you're false, end of story", lol.

Democrats would be centrist. There are factions that would be left-wing but they're a minority within the Democratic Party. It's not like the squad, Bernie Sanders or even Elizabeth Warren dominate the DEM party. Biden's brand is basically christian democratic, which generally is even considered center-right in most nations in Western Europe.

No, you're just one European person with a particular political viewpoint. I posted an ANALYSIS that measured how left and right the Democratic and Republican parties would in be in peer countries.

That analysis directly contradicts your nonsense claim.

Sorry but the analysis you posted is nonsense, unless you'd say Clinton's Democratic Party is basically as much to the left as Corbyn's Labour Party...

The article you linked is an opinion. And seems like an attempt to normalize Democratic Party and frame Republican Party as more extremist than far-right parties in Europe.

On top of that, the analysis is already dated, it compares the Dems to 2010 versions of political parties. from my country and argueing it is to the left of the Greens and Parti Socialiste LOL.

I'm pretty sure i know more about European politics and the Democratic Party than this opinion maker.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Sorry but the analysis you posted is nonsense, unless you'd say Clinton's Democratic Party is basically as much to the left as Corbyn's Labour Party...

The article you linked is an opinion. And seems like an attempt to normalize Democratic Party and frame Republican Party as more extremist than far-right parties in Europe.

On top of that, the analysis is already dated, it compares the Dems to 2010 versions of political parties..

Now, goalpost moving. I'm not surprised.

Anyway, this convo can be had at another time. This thread should go back to the topic of it.

[Fight for Trump]

The less you've been indoctrinated by Mockingbird media, the more likely you are to support Trump.

[Beet]

The less you've been indoctrinated by Mockingbird media, the more likely you are to support Trump.

That's what I was about to say. The more you receive news from centralized establishment sources, one could say soft propaganda, the more pro Biden you are. This is a major advantage for Biden in this election. It's almost impossible for anyone to get elected president in the face of a strong media onslaught.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Sorry but the analysis you posted is nonsense, unless you'd say Clinton's Democratic Party is basically as much to the left as Corbyn's Labour Party...

The article you linked is an opinion. And seems like an attempt to normalize Democratic Party and frame Republican Party as more extremist than far-right parties in Europe.

On top of that, the analysis is already dated, it compares the Dems to 2010 versions of political parties..

Now, goalpost moving. I'm not surprised.

Anyway, this convo can be had at another time. This thread should go back to the topic of it.

Political compass for Belgium

The blue parties (Open VLD/MR) which are "the liberal" parties are clearly right of center. So is the ornage one (christian democrats).

[OSR stands with Israel]

Makes sense as Biden's base is high propensity voters.

Also confirms the latest trend of an increasing division between education. We're also seeing this pattern in other Western countries. Right-wing populists tend to do better with lesser educated voters, while liberal and left-wing parties are strong with high educated people. My dad even once said that to vote left of center out of conviction requires some intellect (although I would argue there are numerous conservative intellectuals, but they're not really welcome in today's Republican Party).

I'm not sure that what you support is actually left of center, both in USA and Germany.

How is he not left of center. It's not like President Johnson was a never trump republican turned democrat as he was a democrat before that. On the issues as well:

Economics: He was in favor of Biden's BBB which is a solidly left of center economic program and historically in support of the New Deal/Great Society economic consensus in the US and post War Consensus in Western Europe while being opposed to Reaganomics and Thatcherism.

Social Issues: Again he has always been solidly liberal on these issues

Foreign Policy : Not a left vs right issue so its silly to place someone on the political spectrum based on this .

Like I would actually describe President Johnson as a Hubert Humphrey style liberal who undoubtedly was left of center despite what Eugene McCarthy said about him in 1968.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

The less you've been indoctrinated by Mockingbird media, the more likely you are to support Trump.

That's what I was about to say. The more you receive news from centralized establishment sources, one could say soft propaganda, the more pro Biden you are. This is a major advantage for Biden in this election. It's almost impossible for anyone to get elected president in the face of a strong media onslaught.

I'm not sure if you're suggesting that the NYT isn't an establishment source, or that the NYT is pro-Biden.