Is Pennsylvania the bellweather state?

[Yelnoc]

The winner of Pennsylvania has won the presidency from 1972 to 2020 (excluding 2004), the longest such run by any state. Will that streak continue in 2024?

[°Leprechaun]

What about 2000?
The winner of PA could certainly be elected this year.

[Yelnoc]

What about 2000?
The winner of PA could certainly be elected this year.

Ah you're right. I should have said "excluding the bush years." It's too early for this haha. It's tricky though because PA, MI, & WI all votes for the winner from 2008-2020, and PA has the longest track record before Bush. Jr just messes the streak up.

[Progressive Pessimist]

It's Wisconsin again.

Biden could possibly hold Michigan and Pennsylvania, but lose Wisconsin and most likely the other major swing states with it.

[DS0816]

The winner of Pennsylvania has won the presidency from 1972 to 2020 (excluding 2004), the longest such run by any state. Will that streak continue in 2024?

I have been keeping track and, once this election ends, intend to offer an update to the following:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=556600.msg9122153#msg9122153

*****

Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin currently hold the longest streak of having carried for United States presidential election winners. Since 2008, they are at four in a row. They will each carry for the winner, again, here in 2024…moving them to five in a row.

Record for the longest streak is a tie with Nevada and New Mexico. The latter state joined the Union and first voted in 1912. (They have, so far, carried differently only in 2000.) From 1912 to 1972…they carried every time. 60 years and 16 consecutive election cycles. (Ohio, from 1964 to 2016, ran 52 years and 14 consecutive election cycles. Florida carried the same as Ohio with exception in 1992.)

The five states with the best historic record in having carried for U.S. presidential winners, from 1789 to 2020, are as follows:

01. New Mexico • 92.85%
02. Illinois • 84.31%
03. California • 83.72%
04. New York • 83.62%
05. Pennsylvania • 83.05%

If Election 2024 ends up a Republican pickup for U.S. President—and bellwether Pennsylvania flips and carries while Illinois, California, and New York hold Democratic—the Keystone State will move up to No. 2.

[cherry mandarin]

At this point PA is probably the likeliest tipping-point state, so sure. But I think GA and MI aren't too far behind, either.

[Rand]

No, it’s the Liberty Bellwether state.

[PeteB]

If Trump wins, it certainly could be, but I voted NO as I think WI or MI are more likely to be the bellwether this time.

[TheHegemonist]

https://split-ticket.org/2024/05/18/temperature-check-2024-presidential-election/?amp=1

This site, Split Ticket, has Trump at 251 and Biden at 226. If Trump wins PA under this scenario (that is, winning NC, FL, and GA) he gets to exactly 270 and doesn't need any other state. If Biden wins PA, he gets to 245 and Trump's path becomes much harder: he now needs to either win Michigan and another state or, without Michigan, sweep Wisconsin, Arizona, and Nevada. Since Biden is polling slightly better in Michigan and Wisconsin than Pennsylvania (though the margins are very small), I don't think it'll be the case that Trump will win Michigan or Wisconsin if he loses Pennsylvania.

This does seem to be shaping up to be the closest election in a good while, since 2004 probably. I don't expect either candidate to get over 300 electoral votes.

[David Hume]

What about 2000?
The winner of PA could certainly be elected this year.

Ah you're right. I should have said "excluding the bush years." It's too early for this haha. It's tricky though because PA, MI, & WI all votes for the winner from 2008-2020, and PA has the longest track record before Bush. Jr just messes the streak up.

Same can be said for WI and MI. I think WI is more likely to be the tipping point state this time. It's is entirely possible that Biden wins PA and MI, while Trump wins GA, AZ, WI, and the presidency as the result.

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

If Trump wins PA, he wins the election.

But Trump doesn’t need PA.

Trump has more paths to victory than Biden.

Conversely, Biden is fu cked without PA….

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Trump wins PA, he wins the election.

But Trump doesn’t need PA.

Trump has more paths to victory than Biden. Conversely, Biden is fu cked without PA….

Bob Casey is on the ballot he won't win PA they said be patient with PA due to it's slow VBM and Provision ballots

You Rs trip me out, you said Fetterman was gonna lose and he won the samething is gonna happen Eday Biden wins