What would be the first sign that Biden is going lose during election night coverage?

[iceman]

What would be the first tell-tail signs that Biden is headed for a loss during election night?

[iceman]

When South Carolina gets called at the top of the hour 7PM EST. probably could be one.

Or Trump is winning Lake county, Indiana count

[Rubensim]

Trump win Nevada/Arizona
and if trump win Michigan it a sign that Biden have lost horribly.

[Gustaf]

Trump win Nevada/Arizona
and if trump win Michigan it a sign that Biden have lost horribly.

Trump winning Nevada or Arizona seems very unlikely to be a first sign, given how late those states close.

[dspNY]

But to answer the OP, if New Jersey is not called right away at 8 PM we’ll know because that would show Biden isn’t getting the votes he needs in neighboring PA

[emailking]

Late calls can be misleading keep in mind. In 2004 everyone thought it was a bad sign for Bush when states like North Carolina took an hour to be called. But Bush still won. Turned out the exit polls were biased towards Kerry.

[Meclazine for Israel]

That's easy.

[Radicalneo]

I think we will know based on the margins in the Indianapolis suburbs and Cincinnati suburbs in Kentucky

[mjba257]

Several early indicators to look for:
- Fayette County, KY, home of Lexington, a mid-sized city with a good mix of urban and suburban areas. If Biden is underperforming here, that could be a sign that he is losing ground in both urban and suburban areas

- Georgia - due to recent law changes, GA very likely will count their ballots very quickly this year and if polls are correct and remain steady until November, GA could be called for Trump pretty early (before 10 o'clock). We can look at margins in Fulton (Atlanta) and it's surrounding suburbs and see 1) is turnout down in Atlanta (indicating underperformance with black voters) and 2) is he underperforming his 2020 margins in Metro Atlanta (that doesn't bode well for him in other college-educated suburbs like in Philly)

- Does New Jersey get called right at poll closings? If not, that would mean exit polls are showing a much closer race in the Garden State than we've seen in years. Nobody seriously thinks NJ is going to flip this year, but a significantly closer than usual race could spell doom in neighboring PA.

[2016]

Several early indicators to look for:
- Fayette County, KY, home of Lexington, a mid-sized city with a good mix of urban and suburban areas. If Biden is underperforming here, that could be a sign that he is losing ground in both urban and suburban areas

- Georgia - due to recent law changes, GA very likely will count their ballots very quickly this year and if polls are correct and remain steady until November, GA could be called for Trump pretty early (before 10 o'clock). We can look at margins in Fulton (Atlanta) and it's surrounding suburbs and see 1) is turnout down in Atlanta (indicating underperformance with black voters) and 2) is he underperforming his 2020 margins in Metro Atlanta (that doesn't bode well for him in other college-educated suburbs like in Philly)

- Does New Jersey get called right at poll closings? If not, that would mean exit polls are showing a much closer race in the Garden State than we've seen in years. Nobody seriously thinks NJ is going to flip this year, but a significantly closer than usual race could spell doom in neighboring PA.

Biden isn't going to pull the same margins he did in Fayette in 2020 simply because there will be lower turnout given how disliked both Candidates are. It will be more like the Clinton 2016 mergin in Fayette.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Trump win Nevada/Arizona
and if trump win Michigan it a sign that Biden have lost horribly.

Trump winning Nevada or Arizona seems very unlikely to be a first sign, given how late those states close.

And how slow they tend to count. Good chance those are the last 2 states called imo even if they aren’t the closest

[iceman]

North Carolina has a D counting bias early in the night, if that’s close or Trump takes an early lead that may be a sign that Biden’s goose is cooked.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Trump win Nevada/Arizona
and if trump win Michigan it a sign that Biden have lost horribly.

Trump winning Nevada or Arizona seems very unlikely to be a first sign, given how late those states close.

And how slow they tend to count. Good chance those are the last 2 states called imo even if they aren’t the closest

No chance either will be called on election night, even if Trump ends up winning them by double-digits.

[2016]

North Carolina has a D counting bias early in the night, if that’s close or Trump takes an early lead that may be a sign that Biden’s goose is cooked.

There are also Counties in your Home State of Florida I am looking at. Biden exceeded his Vote Share south of Tampa like Sarasota, Collier, Lee in 2020. He did well with Seniors in FL in 2020 only losing it to Trump 47-52.
If Biden is bleeding Seniors that could spell trouble for him in PA. FL & PA are among the oldest States in the Nation.

[SnowLabrador]

Michigan doesn't close until 8 PM, but I'd keep an eye on Washtenaw County (Ann Arbor). If Biden isn't over 70 here he's likely to lose the state (and thus the election). If there's going to be a massive movement of young college voters away from Biden due to Gaza, Washtenaw will be ground zero.

[Open Source Intelligence]

New York too early to call?

[LAKISYLVANIA]

North Carolina has a D counting bias early in the night, if that’s close or Trump takes an early lead that may be a sign that Biden’s goose is cooked.

Ohio also has a D bias early on.

VA a R bias.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Exit polls showing that most Americans believe the economy is bad and getting worse.

[Duke of York]

Michigan doesn't close until 8 PM, but I'd keep an eye on Washtenaw County (Ann Arbor). If Biden isn't over 70 here he's likely to lose the state (and thus the election). If there's going to be a massive movement of young college voters away from Biden due to Gaza, Washtenaw will be ground zero.

Not voting over that is truly stupid.

[iceman]

Way back in 2016, when all polling, prognostics by pundits and overall political climate point out to a Clinton blowout, I already knew she was in trouble early in the night when the margins in rural Kentucky and Indiana where lopsided for Trump. That was all confirned when Ohio was called before states in the west coast closed at 11PM EST and the margin was almost 10% when just the day before a columbus dispatch (gold standard for Ohio) showed a 1% Clinton edge.

[CookieDamage]

Michigan doesn't close until 8 PM, but I'd keep an eye on Washtenaw County (Ann Arbor). If Biden isn't over 70 here he's likely to lose the state (and thus the election). If there's going to be a massive movement of young college voters away from Biden due to Gaza, Washtenaw will be ground zero.

Not voting over that is truly stupid.

College protesters are willing to allow a wannabe dictator to win re-election for a country like 10,000 miles away. When Trump sends in the national guard to American cities and campuses (which he said he wants to do) I wonder who they'll blame.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Virginia: If Loudon is in single digits when the first voters are reported . This means Virginia is in play and Biden is not coming close to getting the margins he needs in the suburbs to win the overall race.

Georgia: If Henry County is voting similarly to where it did in 2020 or slightly to the right. Henry County actually swung to the left from 2020 Presidential -> 2022 Governor so if Biden is unable to increase his margins there then that means that Trump has made significant inroads with African American Voters which means hes not only toast in GA but in the rust belt as well.

[KYRockefeller]

If Virginia goes to the wire or takes a long time to be called.  That's how I knew the GOP was going to have a good night in 2014.

[wbrocks67]

Probably how Biden is doing in the KY/IN suburbs and if it's holding up to 2020, better or worse, etc

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Absent some huge blowout, I don't think we can get any reliable sign of this before getting significant returns in MI/PA/WI.  

In 2020, a lot of people were sure Trump was going to win based on the early Florida results. Georgia should come in pretty early this year, but I expect this to be Biden's worst swing state, so a clear Trump lead there could be similarly misinterpreted.