Members here who have a solid, documented record of calling past presidential elections right...

[Obama24]

If there are members here who have a solid and documented record of calling past elections correctly, I'm curious what you think the result in November will be?

[GeorgiaModerate]

I've been following US elections for over 50 years and have missed two: 2000, when I predicted the reverse of what happened (Gore winning the EC while losing the PV), and 2016, which a lot of people missed.

At this point I simply don't know who's going to win this year, although I like to think it's a highly informed "don't know" rather than a copout. The race is too close and there's too much time left to predict it objectively with any degree of confidence.  As I've said before, if the election was held today I'd rate Trump as a slight favorite, although far from a certainty; it's certainly within the margin of error.  But there is plenty of time and opportunity for Biden to retake the lead. 

To use a football analogy I've used before, Biden is down a touchdown in the second quarter.  There's plenty of time and the opportunity is certainly there, but he can't just stand pat; he has to actually do the work needed to make up the deficit.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

I’ve only been following elections since 2016, when I was 11 but I like to think I have a fairly decent prediction record. I knew 2016 would be close, predicted a 53-47 senate/dems gaining about 40 in the house in 2018, never bought that 2020 would be a landslide and even here in Canada had Trudeau winning a second term when he was down in most polls. I also always knew this race would be a Biden/Trump rematch.

As of now I’d say Biden pulls this off narrowly but it’s far from a done deal, and as georgiamoderate said a lot can change. We want the answer to this election but simply won’t get it for quite a while. As Adam Carlson (great election analyst, suggest you give him a follow) says, “embrace patience and uncertainty”

[kwabbit]

I’ve only been following elections since 2016, when I was 11 but I like to think I have a fairly decent prediction record. I knew 2016 would be close, predicted a 53-47 senate/dems gaining about 40 in the house in 2018, never bought that 2020 would be a landslide and even here in Canada had Trudeau winning a second term when he was down in most polls. I also always knew this race would be a Biden/Trump rematch.

As of now I’d say Biden pulls this off narrowly but it’s far from a done deal, and as georgiamoderate said a lot can change. We want the answer to this election but simply won’t get it for quite a while. As Adam Carlson (great election analyst, suggest you give him a follow) says, “embrace patience and uncertainty”

Polls essentially nailed 2021 Canadian, actually slightly underrated Tories. Remember that they won the PV in the end. It's just that the Liberals have  a huge geography advantage, and even when O'Toole had a 5 pt lead they were barely going to place first in seats and never were going to form government.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I've been following US elections for over 50 years and have missed two: 2000, when I predicted the reverse of what happened (Gore winning the EC while losing the PV), and 2016, which a lot of people missed.

At this point I simply don't know who's going to win this year, although I like to think it's a highly informed "don't know" rather than a copout. The race is too close and there's too much time left to predict it objectively with any degree of confidence.  As I've said before, if the election was held today I'd rate Trump as a slight favorite, although far from a certainty; it's certainly within the margin of error.  But there is plenty of time and opportunity for Biden to retake the lead. 

To use a football analogy I've used before, Biden is down a touchdown in the second quarter.  There's plenty of time and the opportunity is certainly there, but he can't just stand pat; he has to actually do the work needed to make up the deficit.

What was it like watching Reagan's landslide in 1984? Were you shocked by him winning almost every state considering it would never happen today or was it considered relatively expected and not a big event?

[GeorgiaModerate]

I've been following US elections for over 50 years and have missed two: 2000, when I predicted the reverse of what happened (Gore winning the EC while losing the PV), and 2016, which a lot of people missed.

At this point I simply don't know who's going to win this year, although I like to think it's a highly informed "don't know" rather than a copout. The race is too close and there's too much time left to predict it objectively with any degree of confidence.  As I've said before, if the election was held today I'd rate Trump as a slight favorite, although far from a certainty; it's certainly within the margin of error.  But there is plenty of time and opportunity for Biden to retake the lead. 

To use a football analogy I've used before, Biden is down a touchdown in the second quarter.  There's plenty of time and the opportunity is certainly there, but he can't just stand pat; he has to actually do the work needed to make up the deficit.

What was it like watching Reagan's landslide in 1984? Were you shocked by him winning almost every state considering it would never happen today or was it considered relatively expected and not a big event?

It was a foregone conclusion that Reagan was going to win in a landslide; the only question was how big it would be.  The most interesting part of election night was watching to see just how many states he'd actually get.  Also, it wasn't that far removed from 1972, which was an equally big landslide, so it didn't seem like a unique event.  I agree that today such a lopsided result would be shocking (to say the least).

[LAKISYLVANIA]

I predicted Trump would win in 2016. I predicted Biden would win in 2020. I currently agree with GeorgiaModerate's take in that Trump has the edge but that Biden still has the time to reverse things, but if election was held today i would place my bets on Trump. And gun to my head for november, i also would go with Trump.

Scores have been posted for the 2018 General Election.  
Lakigigar with highest score (35 state wins and 25 percentages)

Enjoy,
Dave

And 2018 i also called correctly, including blue Arizona and red Florida that year.

[Rand]

An old White man will win. If I’m correct you have to leave Talk Elections for a year.

[cherry mandarin]

Polls essentially nailed 2021 Canadian, actually slightly underrated Tories. Even when O'Toole had a 5 pt lead they were barely going to place first in seats and never were going to form government.

In hindsight, of course. But in 2021 and especially 2019 most predictions/seat models overrated the Tories, even if they actually undershot them in the PV (which no one really even cares about anyway).

[Meclazine for Israel]

People often ask me "Meclazine, you have a solid, documented record of calling past presidential elections right, I'm curious what you think the result in November will be?"

When You Check Your Phone in November 2024

https://www.instagram.com/reel/C2h0nYRLWJn/

[kwabbit]

Polls essentially nailed 2021 Canadian, actually slightly underrated Tories. Even when O'Toole had a 5 pt lead they were barely going to place first in seats and never were going to form government.

In hindsight, of course. But in 2021 and especially 2019 most predictions/seat models overrated the Tories, even if they actually undershot them in the PV (which no one really even cares about anyway).

Going to election day even with the assumption that an O'Toole-led Tories would have a relative advantage in the suburbs over the Scheer-led Tories, the Liberals were still expected to place first in seats. It is true that it was a surprise that there were no overall gains for the Tories, but it was more of an expectation of like 150ish to 125ish than a tie.

[cherry mandarin]

Going to election day even with the assumption that an O'Toole-led Tories would have a relative advantage in the suburbs over the Scheer-led Tories, the Liberals were still expected to place first in seats. It is true that it was a surprise that there were no overall gains for the Tories, but it was more of an expectation of like 150ish to 125ish than a tie.

Yes but the Tories finished with fewer seats in 2021 than 2019 whereas the Liberals gained seats. Both were quite surprising at the time.

[NYSforKennedy2024]

FWIW I predicted the 2020 electoral college vote and Georgia going for Biden:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=400594.msg7717044#msg7717044

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

In 2020 I called the margins in Michigan and nationally to within 1% of the actual result and got 49/50 states right (damn you, Georgia!)

I think Biden is a serious underdog right now and that deserves its own post but his goose isn't totally cooked yet since there's plenty of campaign left to turn thing around. Still, I have a hard time imagining Biden does any better than 2020 (maybe he flips NC?) but at worst he could do far, far worse than Hillary did in 2016. It would have only taken ~50,000 votes for Trump to have won 2020 so it wouldn't take much of a shift for him to win.

[RI]

Here are my presidential predictions from:

2020, 2016, 2012, 2008

I don't always get every state correct, but I'm 4/4 in predicting the electoral college winner. As of now, I lean toward a Trump victory, but in 2/4 cases (2016 and 2020), my predictions changed later in the campaign. Clear as mud, I know.

[pbrower2a]

Not I... I thought that 2000 and 2016 would be close calls. I got 2004 right only on the morning of Election Day.

This one seems to have the odd situation of the incumbent facing the nominee that he defeated in the previous election, something that we have not seen since 1956. 1956 proved to be 1952 redux because the personalities were the same. Well, the personalities are the same in 2024 as they were in 2020.

That Ike wiped the floor with Stevenson was no surprise; he had won in a landslide in 1952. 2016 was incredibly close to a Trump victory despite Trump's failed Presidency and vileness as a person. This is not partisan hackery; Ike was unobjectionable.

Also different is that Trump faces criminal charges and possible conviction. Stevenson was squeaky-clean.  

[David Hume]

I started to follow politics in 2016 and got both 2016 and 2020 correct. I think Biden is slightly favored based on the current data (which is very few), but with very low confidence. At this point it's just hard to know.