What battleground state has the largest variance?

[SaneDemocrat]

What do you think?

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Nevada I could see from Biden +3 to Trump +12.

NE02 would be even larger if it were an option.

[Del Tachi]

Strange that Nevada is leading this poll when it finished practically identically in 2016 and 2020 (D +2.5)

I voted Minnesota, where I think the margins within the first standard deviation are something like D+2 and D+9. 

[wnwnwn]

Texas?

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Objectively the elastic ones, which are MI, PA, WI, MN and maybe NV. WI maybe a little less and perhaps PA due to the sheer population also a tiny bit less than the others.

NV is just more uncertainty, but could be the answer because of that. Otherwise MI or MN.

[Radicalneo]

Strange that Nevada is leading this poll when it finished practically identically in 2016 and 2020 (D +2.5)

I voted Minnesota, where I think the margins within the first standard deviation are something like D+2 and D+9. 

Yea

[Radicalneo]

I’ll go Texas. I can see Trump+1 to Trump+11

[Progressive Pessimist]

Not Nevada.

Lombardo was the only Republican to win statewide since 2014, and that was by little more than 1%.

If Trump wins it this year, I don't see him doing much better.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Strange that Nevada is leading this poll when it finished practically identically in 2016 and 2020 (D +2.5)

I voted Minnesota, where I think the margins within the first standard deviation are something like D+2 and D+9. 

Yea

Nevada is uncertainty, it has a history of bad polling.

It's because people genuinely aren't sure whether what is happening in Nevada, therefore a large variance in what the potential result could be.