Trump surpasses 270 EVs in initial CNN race ratings

[cherry mandarin]

These were published a while back but I didn't see them until now. Nonetheless, they seem to be the first major forecaster to have either candidate above the 270 EV threshold this cycle.

What are your thoughts on their preliminary electoral map for the 2024 presidential race?

Total EVs by candidate: Trump 272, Biden 225, toss-up 41

Safe Republican (188): Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arkansas (6), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Iowa (6), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (8), Mississippi (6), Missouri (10), Montana (4), Nebraska at-large (2), Nebraska's first Congressional District (1), Nebraska's third Congressional District (1), North Dakota (3), Ohio (17), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (9), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (40), Utah (6), West Virginia (4), Wyoming (3)

Lean Republican (84): Florida (30), Georgia (16), Maine's second Congressional District (1), Michigan (15), Nevada (6), North Carolina (16)

Toss-up (41): Arizona (11), Nebraska's second Congressional District (1), Pennsylvania (19), Wisconsin (10)

Lean Democratic (50): Colorado (10), Minnesota (10), New Hampshire (4), New Mexico (5), Oregon (8), Virginia (13)

Safe Democratic (175): California (54), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), DC (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (19), Maine at-large (2), Maine's first Congressional District (1), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (11), New Jersey (14), New York (28), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Washington (12)

Analysis article here:

[MR DARK BRANDON]

They haven’t updated that map in months. This isn’t new.

[cherry mandarin]

They haven’t updated that map in months. This isn’t new.

Which I acknowledged in my post. At the same time, consider that maybe the reason they haven't "updated" it is because there hasn't been significant movement in the race during this time. Heck, Sabato's Crystal Ball hasn't "updated" their ratings in almost a year, and they're emphatic about not doing so. Cook hasn't changed their ratings in a while either, and I also haven't made any changes to mine for months now.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

They haven’t updated that map in months. This isn’t new.

Which I acknowledged in my post. At the same time, consider that maybe the reason they haven't "updated" it is because there hasn't been significant movement in the race during this time. Heck, Sabato's Crystal Ball hasn't "updated" their ratings in almost a year, and they're emphatic about not doing so. Cook hasn't changed their ratings in a while either, and I also haven't made any changes to mine for months now.

Yeah that’s Fair. My own prediction has largely remained consistent for months now lol.

[iceman]

These were published a while back but I didn't see them until now. Nonetheless, they seem to be the first major forecaster to have either candidate above the 270 EV threshold this cycle.

What are your thoughts on their preliminary electoral map for the 2024 presidential race?

Total EVs by candidate: Trump 272, Biden 225, toss-up 41

Safe Republican (188): Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arkansas (6), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Iowa (6), Kansas (6), Kentucky (, Louisiana (, Mississippi (6), Missouri (10), Montana (4), Nebraska at-large (2), Nebraska's first Congressional District (1), Nebraska's third Congressional District (1), North Dakota (3), Ohio (17), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (9), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (40), Utah (6), West Virginia (4), Wyoming (3)

Lean Republican (84): Florida (30), Georgia (16), Maine's second Congressional District (1), Michigan (15), Nevada (6), North Carolina (16)

Toss-up (41): Arizona (11), Nebraska's second Congressional District (1), Pennsylvania (19), Wisconsin (10)

Lean Democratic (50): Colorado (10), Minnesota (10), New Hampshire (4), New Mexico (5), Oregon (, Virginia (13)

Safe Democratic (175): California (54), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), DC (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (19), Maine at-large (2), Maine's first Congressional District (1), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (11), New Jersey (14), New York (28), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Washington (12)

Analysis article here:

move Michigan to toss-up and Florida to solid R then we have the current state of the race based on the polls.

[cherry mandarin]

move Michigan to toss-up and Florida to solid R then we have the current state of the race based on the polls.

It's crazy that they think ME is safer for Biden than OR. Personally I wouldn't have VA or especially CO at Lean D either.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

These were published a while back but I didn't see them until now. Nonetheless, they seem to be the first major forecaster to have either candidate above the 270 EV threshold this cycle.

What are your thoughts on their preliminary electoral map for the 2024 presidential race?

Total EVs by candidate: Trump 272, Biden 225, toss-up 41

Safe Republican (188): Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arkansas (6), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Iowa (6), Kansas (6), Kentucky (, Louisiana (, Mississippi (6), Missouri (10), Montana (4), Nebraska at-large (2), Nebraska's first Congressional District (1), Nebraska's third Congressional District (1), North Dakota (3), Ohio (17), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (9), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (40), Utah (6), West Virginia (4), Wyoming (3)

Lean Republican (84): Florida (30), Georgia (16), Maine's second Congressional District (1), Michigan (15), Nevada (6), North Carolina (16)

Toss-up (41): Arizona (11), Nebraska's second Congressional District (1), Pennsylvania (19), Wisconsin (10)

Lean Democratic (50): Colorado (10), Minnesota (10), New Hampshire (4), New Mexico (5), Oregon (, Virginia (13)

Safe Democratic (175): California (54), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), DC (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (19), Maine at-large (2), Maine's first Congressional District (1), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (11), New Jersey (14), New York (28), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Washington (12)

Analysis article here:

move Michigan to toss-up and Florida to solid R then we have the current state of the race based on the polls.

To be fair, Arizona should be lean R too if they classify GA and NV as lean R.

But agree with moving MI to toss-up and FL to solid red basically (if they don't likely).

And also swap Oregon for Maine at large. And CO should be safe D too. For NM, i'd like to see more data.

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

If Biden was leading, CNN would have their electoral map predictions plastered all over their website frotntpage. But because he’s losing, and Trump is winning they abandon the most fun aspect of presidential elections (the map…!). What a bunch of tools.

Kinda like what CNN did with their Covid Death Map and Covid Death Counter that they fear mongered over with Trump, but dropped once Biden became president (despite Covid crisis worse under Biden!). Again, a bunch of tools.