Is Texas' Future Blue?

[King Man]

Or will it trend red, or become a sort of mega NC?

[Kamala's side hoe]

TX will vote for a D nominee again sometime this century, provided Don Giovanni doesn't manage to fully implement Project 2025 if he wins in November.

Also TX can swing D and trend R in a hypothetical future election if it swings D by less than the country as a whole.

[wnwnwn]

It´s PURPLE
As Ohio, Iowa and Florida go GOP they have to be replaced.

[mjba257]

Here's what the future looks like (my crystal ball), circa 2040s

Pure tossups: AZ, DE, NJ, NM, NC, PA, RI, TX
Lean/Likely R: AK, KS, MI, NV, SC, TN, UT, WI
Lean/Likely D: GA, HI, IL, MN, NY

[Skill and Chance]

I think people got way too excited about this based on 2016.  It's still somewhat less college educated and way more religious (including plenty of the college educated people) than the national average.  There's also a lot of evidence Texas Hispanics are culturally assimilating toward white Evangelicals.  That having been said, I don't think it will ever go back to being R+25, but there's no reason it wouldn't stay R+10ish for many years.  Maybe Dems eventually win it in a 2008 scenario as a one-time thing.   

[Agonized-Statism]

It was always going to be a swing state at most- no way Republicans would let it slip away completely- but Democrats aren't doing the work I've pointed out that they need to do to make it happen there over the last few years.

[Samof94]

I think people got way too excited about this based on 2016.  It's still somewhat less college educated and way more religious (including plenty of the college educated people) than the national average.  There's also a lot of evidence Texas Hispanics are culturally assimilating toward white Evangelicals.  That having been said, I don't think it will ever go back to being R+25, but there's no reason it wouldn't stay R+10ish for many years.  Maybe Dems eventually win it in a 2008 scenario as a one-time thing.   

What if a Conservadem wins as a Senator?

[Skill and Chance]

I think people got way too excited about this based on 2016.  It's still somewhat less college educated and way more religious (including plenty of the college educated people) than the national average.  There's also a lot of evidence Texas Hispanics are culturally assimilating toward white Evangelicals.  That having been said, I don't think it will ever go back to being R+25, but there's no reason it wouldn't stay R+10ish for many years.  Maybe Dems eventually win it in a 2008 scenario as a one-time thing.   

What if a Conservadem wins as a Senator?

Texas doesn't really have them anymore.   Cuellar is basically the last one standing and now he's under a probably career ending indictment.  Texas conservadems were in terminal decline by the early 2000's and virtually wiped out in the early 2010's. 

IDK maybe there's a pro-life Tejano Dem representing the RGV in the state senate who could still fill this role, but I seriously doubt it.  Rural white ancestral Dem areas aren't relevant enough for a Manchin or even Fetterman type to take off. 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No it's not it's gonna continue to trend red if ALLRED a football star can't win it it's a lost cause

[Tekken_Guy]

I think people got way too excited about this based on 2016.  It's still somewhat less college educated and way more religious (including plenty of the college educated people) than the national average.  There's also a lot of evidence Texas Hispanics are culturally assimilating toward white Evangelicals.  That having been said, I don't think it will ever go back to being R+25, but there's no reason it wouldn't stay R+10ish for many years.  Maybe Dems eventually win it in a 2008 scenario as a one-time thing.   

What if a Conservadem wins as a Senator?

Texas doesn't really have them anymore.   Cuellar is basically the last one standing and now he's under a probably career ending indictment.  Texas conservadems were in terminal decline by the early 2000's and virtually wiped out in the early 2010's. 

IDK maybe there's a pro-life Tejano Dem representing the RGV in the state senate who could still fill this role, but I seriously doubt it.  Rural white ancestral Dem areas aren't relevant enough for a Manchin or even Fetterman type to take off. 

Cuellar will be fine, honestly.

[2016]

I think people got way too excited about this based on 2016.  It's still somewhat less college educated and way more religious (including plenty of the college educated people) than the national average.  There's also a lot of evidence Texas Hispanics are culturally assimilating toward white Evangelicals.  That having been said, I don't think it will ever go back to being R+25, but there's no reason it wouldn't stay R+10ish for many years.  Maybe Dems eventually win it in a 2008 scenario as a one-time thing.   

What if a Conservadem wins as a Senator?

Texas doesn't really have them anymore.   Cuellar is basically the last one standing and now he's under a probably career ending indictment.  Texas conservadems were in terminal decline by the early 2000's and virtually wiped out in the early 2010's. 

IDK maybe there's a pro-life Tejano Dem representing the RGV in the state senate who could still fill this role, but I seriously doubt it.  Rural white ancestral Dem areas aren't relevant enough for a Manchin or even Fetterman type to take off. 

Cuellar will be fine, honestly.

For this November probably yes but no way Cuellar survives until the 2026 Midterms and if Biden wins narrowly (I am still one of those people who thinks he will) then Cuellar is TOAST in 2026 either in a D-Primary or GE.

[DS0816]

Or will it trend red, or become a sort of mega NC?

Trends:

• North Carolina—Bellwether
• Texas—Lean Republican

The only states which have voted for the winners in the last four election cycles—which are now the longest unbroken streak—are Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

2012 Barack Obama and 2020 Joe Biden each won the U.S. Popular Vote by, and this is using a whole number, +4. Had they won by +5, they would have also carried the next state within reach—North Carolina. I think this state will start, here in 2024, reliably carrying for U.S. presidential election winners.

Texas is the next Top 10 populous state, after North Carolina, within reach for Democrats.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

NC and TX should be cautious by Rs there are always surprises in eDays AZ and GA, ME in 20 and FL was supposed to stay R in 2008 and 2012 it was OH that was only supposed to go D in 2008/12.

So, I wouldn't count Allred out or Stein, it's a longshot that's what wave insurance means it can but not automatically flip to opposite party


Beto at the end lost by 11 but he was surging but we lost the state of TX, due to Uvulde

I would be pretty mad if ALLRED won not Powell she is down 15 won on Eday based on Trump being sentence to home confinement

[Spectator]

The best hope Dems have of Blexas is Austin and DFW continuing to grow and voting more and more like Silicon Valley with the white liberal techies they are attracting.

[Burke Bro]

The challenge for Democrats in Texas is that if they continue to take on the identity of a technocratic, college educated party, they will make gains with suburban voters but at the expense of losing Latino support. Third and fourth generation Latinos, in particular, have no perceived loyalty towards the Democratic Party and tend to be more populist in their political views. The only winning coalition for Democrats in Texas is a working class coalition and that requires a rejection of the values of the technocracy- particularly on issues that impact Texans disproportionately such as immigration and energy.

[Kamala's side hoe]

The challenge for Democrats in Texas is that if they continue to take on the identity of a technocratic, college educated party, they will make gains with suburban voters but at the expense of losing Latino support. Third and fourth generation Latinos, in particular, have no perceived loyalty towards the Democratic Party and tend to be more populist in their political views. The only winning coalition for Democrats in Texas is a working class coalition and that requires a rejection of the values of the technocracy- particularly on issues that impact Texans disproportionately such as immigration and energy.

I agree with the gist of what you said, but do you not think upward socioeconomic and educational mobility among multi-generational Tejanos (or older immigrant waves) would result in college-educated suburbs also becoming progressively more Latino over time? I don't have a solid grasp of demographic shifts in Texas Triangle suburbs, but I would expect some of the long-term D shift there to be due to urban flight and racial diversification (from Latinos) alone.

[Burke Bro]

I agree with the gist of what you said, but do you not think upward socioeconomic and educational mobility among multi-generational Tejanos (or older immigrant waves) would result in college-educated suburbs also becoming progressively more Latino over time? I don't have a solid grasp of demographic shifts in Texas Triangle suburbs, but I would expect some of the long-term D shift there to be due to urban flight and racial diversification (from Latinos) alone.

To some level, yes. But I think it would also be a mistake to conflate upward socioeconomic mobility with upward educational mobility. As the value of a college education drops and manufacturing jobs are reshored, there really is no economic incentive to attain a higher level of education (at least in the sense that we think of education today), and that incentive will only get stronger as wage growth in blue collar professions outpaces white collar professions during what is likely to be a prolonged period of high inflation. Given time, these changes will again change the character and the values of the suburbs.

[Vice President Christian Man]

I think people got way too excited about this based on 2016.  It's still somewhat less college educated and way more religious (including plenty of the college educated people) than the national average.  There's also a lot of evidence Texas Hispanics are culturally assimilating toward white Evangelicals.  That having been said, I don't think it will ever go back to being R+25, but there's no reason it wouldn't stay R+10ish for many years.  Maybe Dems eventually win it in a 2008 scenario as a one-time thing.   

What if a Conservadem wins as a Senator?

Outside of Cuellar who is DOA in 2024 and who is more of a moderate than a Conservadem, there isn't one I could think of who is in the wings. It's more likely that a more mainstream Dem similar to Beto could win if it's a particularly good year for Dems.

[TheMattMan]

It really depends on when Dems are out of power nationally next and what they do with it. Trump is still utterly loathed in the suburbs and there's more growth potential there, but Dems' current positions on guns, immigration, and the non-abortion parts of the culture wars are simply non-starters in the state right now. Abbott is also deeply unpopular but has lucked out in that his opponents in the past two cycles were essentially caricatures of what everyone in the state hates with the party in its current form.

Dems have a future in the state when the national party itself becomes tougher on immigration and leverages the GOP's missteps on education vouchers, which are deeply unpopular in more rural areas. It helps that Abbott really has no plans to step down anytime soon. A Dem sweep in 2026 or 2030 which starts passing popular Michigan style legislation would allow traditionally Dem skeptical voters to have buy-in for the national party. That's really the only path that I see based from what I've seen living in the state. If the party continues going down the socially liberal RESIST path, Blexas is not happening for the next generation.

[Vice President Christian Man]

Here's what the future looks like (my crystal ball), circa 2040s

Pure tossups: AZ, DE, NJ, NM, NC, PA, RI, TX
Lean/Likely R: AK, KS, MI, NV, SC, TN, UT, WI
Lean/Likely D: GA, HI, IL, MN, NY

What about MS?

[mjba257]

Here's what the future looks like (my crystal ball), circa 2040s

Pure tossups: AZ, DE, NJ, NM, NC, PA, RI, TX
Lean/Likely R: AK, KS, MI, NV, SC, TN, UT, WI
Lean/Likely D: GA, HI, IL, MN, NY

What about MS?

Unless blacks gain an absolute majority in population, MS will not budge. It is perhaps the most racially polarized state in the country. Mississippi whites are about as Republican as blacks are Democrat. And Mississippi is not a state experiencing big population growth, so I don't see much change happening. OTOH, states like SC and TN are growing and you have college educated whites moving in, which could shift said states in the future.

[Spectator]

If the Texas cities keep growing and getting bluer every cycle, there’s only one direction this is heading. The question is if and/or when the GOP can stop that slide in places like DFW, SATX, Austin, and Houston. It looks like the Houston metro might be stabilized for the time being, but I think we need another midterm under a Republican president followed by the election of the next Dem president to get a clear sense on if that’s just temporary. My guess is in the 2030s that Texas will be the premier swing state.