NJ, MN or VA: which one has the best chance to flip?

[heatcharger]

These are three traditionally blue states in play this election. Which one has the best chance to flip?

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Minnesota due to the twin metro area, as well as the fact that it was closer in 2020. Trump is gaining a lot in urban areas due to the housing situation (also why he leads in NE02), while Biden seems to be holding up in rural areas. The current WI and MN polling are not too far apart.

[iceman]

Only Minnesota is a plausible and conceivable flip. New Jersey and Virginia is just too suburban and too affluent for Trump to win.

Virginia and Colorado are the 2 ex-battleground states that won’t vote GOP again in the foreseeable future in today’s political alignments.

And also, I don’t see New Jersey as actually in play at all this cycle, I don’t see any polling to suggest that.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Only Minnesota is a plausible and conceivable flip. New Jersey and Virginia is just too suburban and too affluent for Trump to win.

Virginia and Colorado are the 2 ex-battleground states that won’t vote GOP again in the foreseeable future in today’s political alignments.

I think Trump gains in the suburbs, but yeah there are no major inner cities in either NJ or VA for Trump to make major gains in.

[Skill and Chance]

Only Minnesota is a plausible and conceivable flip. New Jersey and Virginia is just too suburban and too affluent for Trump to win.

Virginia and Colorado are the 2 ex-battleground states that won’t vote GOP again in the foreseeable future in today’s political alignments.

I think Trump gains in the suburbs, but yeah there are no major inner cities in either NJ or VA for Trump to make major gains in.

NOVA does have a statistically meaningful Muslim and South Asian vote, though.  And there's more pro-life presence in the suburbs than NJ or MN.  FWIW he districts in the state legislature where they are clustered are usually like 75D/25R, but they only voted like 65D/35R last year.

I still think the answer's MN because of how close it was in 2016, but the  apparentNorth/South polarization does give me pause.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

MN of course, but it would be nice to get some good quality polling in Virginia. I don't expect Trump has any real chance to win VA, but I think the margin to be more like 2016 than 2020.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Only Minnesota is a plausible and conceivable flip. New Jersey and Virginia is just too suburban and too affluent for Trump to win.

Virginia and Colorado are the 2 ex-battleground states that won’t vote GOP again in the foreseeable future in today’s political alignments.

I think Trump gains in the suburbs, but yeah there are no major inner cities in either NJ or VA for Trump to make major gains in.

NOVA does have a statistically meaningful Muslim and South Asian vote, though.  And there's more pro-life presence in the suburbs than NJ or MN.  FWIW he districts in the state legislature where they are clustered are usually like 75D/25R, but they only voted like 65D/35R last year.

I still think the answer's MN because of how close it was in 2016, but the  apparentNorth/South polarization does give me pause.

It is really North/South polarization or just polling underestimating Trump in the Rust Belt again? I mostly see urban/rural depolarization from NYT. In this case MN and WI do not vote that far apart.

[DK_Mo82]

I wouldnt describe these states as competitive, Trump lacks $$ to expand map into expense areas priced like Jersey or NovA. If Trump wins any of these states it means Joe had much big problems else where.

[wbrocks67]

New Jersey is not in play, and neither is Virginia. Minnesota is really not either. These threads are becoming a tad ridiculous.

It's going to be pretty wild if Trump ends up losing worse than the polls suggest and in hindsight, it's clear that he should not have been wasting time in states like these (and NY) that were never going to go to him.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

New Jersey is not in play, and neither is Virginia. Minnesota is really not either. These threads are becoming a tad ridiculous.

It's going to be pretty wild if Trump ends up losing worse than the polls suggest and in hindsight, it's clear that he should not have been wasting time in states like these (and NY) that were never going to go to him.

The polls show MN and VA closer than any of the sunbelt states Biden won. Just a stupid decision to run again after 9% inflation and 8% mortgage rates.

[Anti-Trump Truth Socialite JD Vance Enjoying Juror]

If you think New Jersey is in play you need to go outside and quit the politics talk for a while.

[heatcharger]

MN of course, but it would be nice to get some good quality polling in Virginia. I don't expect Trump has any real chance to win VA, but I think the margin to be more like 2016 than 2020.

Yup. VA definitely doesn’t feel like 2020 anymore. It’s time for NYT/Siena to start including these three states in their regular polling rotation.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Minnesota.

You are deluded to think he a chance in the other two.

[SnowLabrador]

Minnesota, but Virginia's not close behind. Youngkin's still pretty popular there.