‘The house is on fire’: Democrats fear Biden is losing pivotal Georgia

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Cunningham had a scandal in 20 we don't know how NC vote in 24 without a Cunningham scandal

I know I take those goofy polls online and they go bye zip code You Gov and I know NV isn't 48/40 as the same as TX

I have no doubt that TX is 48/40 Trump but NV isn't 48/40 Trump Emerson has it 51/49% NV


TX is solely an upset but I know how there can be surprised on Eday AZ and GA were supposed to Lean R in 20, WI S went to Johnson, Barnes was ahead in Clarity and PPP that was an upset,  but the liberal candidate for Judge won in 23 after Johnson won by 12

It's a 270/319 map but I know NC and TX are upsets, and no one knows this time how a 75/70D Eday will turn out it can be different in 24

Which includes 360 Eday it won't be 415 because FL Cubans are R leaning and Biden isn't contesting IA and OH

[Beet]

The Democrats fear it? Good for them. If they had feared losing Wisconsin in May 2016, we wouldn't have all the problems we do today.

[Eraserhead]

Tbh it was pretty shocking when he carried it in 2020. Since it appears this election will be much closer well...

[Pericles]

We never get these kind of deranged quotes from Republican strategists, even in elections that they are actually getting crushed in. Get a grip.

[GAinDC]

If Biden is in a solid position this fall, I think Georgia will come home for him.

GA still is full of the types of voters and communities that are shifting towards Democrats. But there will always be a very high floor of very conservative voters since it’s still in the Bible Belt. So for this race, I see it as a turnout battle.

[GAinDC]

From the article:

But Republicans are also confident they are on track to win back Georgia, as long as Trump can win back traditional conservatives who preferred Nikki Haley in the party’s primary this year and turn out the former president’s rightwing base.

In my opinion, this is a big IF….

[wbrocks67]

It's interesting just how much influence these people put on polls.

I have no idea if Biden will win GA or not, but it's another case of every actual election since 2018 has shown GA to be moving leftward. The only thing that says it's not are polls and crosstabs (usually of black voters specifically since Biden is usually holding his own with white voters more often than not in GA polls)

[GAinDC]

It's interesting just how much influence these people put on polls.

I have no idea if Biden will win GA or not, but it's another case of every actual election since 2018 has shown GA to be moving leftward. The only thing that says it's not are polls and crosstabs (usually of black voters specifically since Biden is usually holding his own with white voters more often than not in GA polls)

The fact that Biden is holding firm with white voters in GA means he needs a big swing from voters of color to win Georgia by as much as some of these polls predict.

[ProgressiveModerate]

It's interesting just how much influence these people put on polls.

I have no idea if Biden will win GA or not, but it's another case of every actual election since 2018 has shown GA to be moving leftward. The only thing that says it's not are polls and crosstabs (usually of black voters specifically since Biden is usually holding his own with white voters more often than not in GA polls)

Exactly. I think another fallacy is if people see a poll that shows GA blacks like 60 Biden - 10 Trump, they assume the "undecides" will ultimately break even.

I think low black turnout is a much bigger threat to Biden's prospects in GA than black voters swinging noticeably to the right.

The fact that Biden is holding firm with white voters in GA means he needs a big swing from voters of color to win Georgia by as much as some of these polls predict.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

It's interesting just how much influence these people put on polls.

I have no idea if Biden will win GA or not, but it's another case of every actual election since 2018 has shown GA to be moving leftward. The only thing that says it's not are polls and crosstabs (usually of black voters specifically since Biden is usually holding his own with white voters more often than not in GA polls)

Exactly. I think another fallacy is if people see a poll that shows GA blacks like 60 Biden - 10 Trump, they assume the "undecides" will ultimately break even.

The fact that Biden is holding firm with white voters in GA means he needs a big swing from voters of color to win Georgia by as much as some of these polls predict.

I think low black turnout is a much bigger threat to Biden's prospects in GA than black voters swinging noticeably to the right.

This is basically what people are expecting at this point.

Not just POC but also young whites (but Biden seems to gain a little with suburban whites or the elderly to offset those losses).

Lots of progressives staying home make a lot of sense. On some issues the Democrats aren't better than the Republicans or just do what the Republicans do.

A major drop in urban turnout hurts Biden a lot.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's evident by today's poll with AZ on the tossup and NV polls, that Biden short of 270 isn't gonna walk into the WH again

But, what did Biden team instead of changing course on a new Veep they double down. I am not saying they are gonna lose, my signature is up, but it's a warning sign

[ProgressiveModerate]

It's interesting just how much influence these people put on polls.

I have no idea if Biden will win GA or not, but it's another case of every actual election since 2018 has shown GA to be moving leftward. The only thing that says it's not are polls and crosstabs (usually of black voters specifically since Biden is usually holding his own with white voters more often than not in GA polls)

Exactly. I think another fallacy is if people see a poll that shows GA blacks like 60 Biden - 10 Trump, they assume the "undecides" will ultimately break even.

The fact that Biden is holding firm with white voters in GA means he needs a big swing from voters of color to win Georgia by as much as some of these polls predict.

I think low black turnout is a much bigger threat to Biden's prospects in GA than black voters swinging noticeably to the right.

This is basically what people are expecting at this point.

Not just POC but also young whites (but Biden seems to gain a little with suburban whites or the elderly to offset those losses).

Lots of progressives staying home make a lot of sense. On some issues the Democrats aren't better than the Republicans or just do what the Republicans do.

A major drop in urban turnout hurts Biden a lot.

Agree, though with the progressives that will stay home/vote third party I think most were never Biden or Democratic voters nor are they voters that are realistic targets for Biden at this point. I've seen very few examples of progressives who actually supported/voted Biden in 2020 and now aren't voting - most of those who claim this are disproven with their social media history.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Georgia is polling at around the same margin as NJ. Likely a waste of time for Biden here.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Georgia is polling at around the same margin as NJ/NY. Likely a waste of time for Biden here. Also, Biden should be going to black downscale churches talking about how he feels their pain about the cost of living.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Biden is failing to give younger, nonwhite, and working class voters any reason to vote for him

He has steadily improved in the polls since the SOTU, yeah the state by state polls Lean Trump but the NPVI is Leaning Biden Marist had it Biden +3 do you know what a Biden +5 victory can be 360 EC votes with TX

Biden has good instincts and know he needs to focus on kitchen table issues, which is the same playbook Obama and Clinton used effectively. Sadly his staffers insist he focuses on culture war issues and divisive pandering, which is why democrats have slid big time with working class voters over the last 30 years.

If Biden had good instincts he would not be running again after 9% inflation, multiple foreign policy failures, and a migrant crisis.