Does Trump do better with Latino Men or College White Women?

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Per 2020 exit polls:
College White Women: Biden-54, Trump-45 -> Biden+9
Latino men: Biden-59, Trump-36->Biden+23

Will be interesting to see which group votes further right this year.

[Rubensim]

Latinos and latinas
College Campusers will mostly likely vote for joe or neither.

[Frodo]

Trump represents Machismo to Latino men every bit as much to Gringos. 

[TechbroMBA]

Big booty latinas

[wnwnwn]

Big booty latinas

Seriously?
Please take all the venezuelan woman you want.
#Biden2024forlessvenezuelansinPeruandmoreintheUSA

[Eraserhead]

Per 2020 exit polls:
College White Women: Biden-54, Trump-45 -> Biden+9
Latino men: Biden-59, Trump-36->Biden+23

Will be interesting to see which group votes further right this year.

How so? It wasn't a close call in 2020 and it seems obvious that the gap between how the two groups vote will continue to widen this year.

[cherry mandarin]

It seems obvious that the gap between how the two groups vote will continue to widen this year.

That would represent a real reversal of recent trends.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

I have both shifting right, but Trump might win Latino men outright. The exit polls in 2020 were likely off and Trump likely only lost Latinos by 26.

[Eraserhead]

It seems obvious that the gap between how the two groups vote will continue to widen this year.

That would represent a real reversal of recent trends.

Tbh, I looked at the old exits incorrectly. I would agree that he probably does better with Latino men this year.

[SnowLabrador]

Latino men. I expect Latinos to outright vote for him.

[Obama24]

Latino men. I expect Latinos to outright vote for him.

I don't know that he'll win this group, but I think he's going to do a lot better than expected among Latinos and that it will be surprising.

[SnowLabrador]

Latino men. I expect Latinos to outright vote for him.

I don't know that he'll win this group, but I think he's going to do a lot better than expected among Latinos and that it will be surprising.

Yeah, maybe not outright win, but I wouldn't be shocked if it were like Miami-Dade 2.0, but on a greater scale.

[Obama24]

Latino men. I expect Latinos to outright vote for him.

I don't know that he'll win this group, but I think he's going to do a lot better than expected among Latinos and that it will be surprising.

Yeah, maybe not outright win, but I wouldn't be shocked if it were like Miami-Dade 2.0, but on a greater scale.

What I think will also shock people when all is said and done will be the numbers of 18-24 year old Muslims particularly in WI, MI, PA, and NYC that voted for Trump, not because they like Trump but because he isn't Joe. The kids who are able to vote now are too young to remember the Muslim ban, and older Muslims are pissed at Biden. I wouldn't be surprised if startling percentages of young Muslims cross over for Trump.

[SnowLabrador]

Latino men. I expect Latinos to outright vote for him.

I don't know that he'll win this group, but I think he's going to do a lot better than expected among Latinos and that it will be surprising.

Yeah, maybe not outright win, but I wouldn't be shocked if it were like Miami-Dade 2.0, but on a greater scale.

What I think will also shock people when all is said and done will be the numbers of 18-24 year old Muslims particularly in WI, MI, PA, and NYC that voted for Trump, not because they like Trump but because he isn't Joe. The kids who are able to vote now are too young to remember the Muslim ban, and older Muslims are pissed at Biden. I wouldn't be surprised if startling percentages of young Muslims cross over for Trump.

To be fair, Muslims are a much smaller percentage of the population than Latinos. Admittedly, if this election is extremely close like the last two, it could be all the difference.

[Obama24]

Latino men. I expect Latinos to outright vote for him.

I don't know that he'll win this group, but I think he's going to do a lot better than expected among Latinos and that it will be surprising.

Yeah, maybe not outright win, but I wouldn't be shocked if it were like Miami-Dade 2.0, but on a greater scale.

What I think will also shock people when all is said and done will be the numbers of 18-24 year old Muslims particularly in WI, MI, PA, and NYC that voted for Trump, not because they like Trump but because he isn't Joe. The kids who are able to vote now are too young to remember the Muslim ban, and older Muslims are pissed at Biden. I wouldn't be surprised if startling percentages of young Muslims cross over for Trump.

To be fair, Muslims are a much smaller percentage of the population than Latinos. Admittedly, if this election is extremely close like the last two, it could be all the difference.

The second sentence is what I'm saying. I think, barring some massive unforeseen circumstance, this is going to be a nail biter and if enough people stay home, or if enough young Latinos or Muslims decide 'let's give Trump a try'...A lot of people here are going to be shocked at the result. This election to me leans Trump, but Trump's biggest handicap toward a second term is his severe foot in mouth disease. This same disorder arguably cost him 2020 as well.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

College White women slightly.

Don't forget that a decent percentage of White women live in the South, and the more Southern a white person is, the more likely they are to be conservative/Republican (just going based on the facts).

Latino men may be trending right, but they are still a Dem-leaning group overall and I don't expect that to change this year.

[kwabbit]

College White women slightly.

Don't forget that a decent percentage of White women live in the South, and the more Southern a white person is, the more likely they are to be conservative/Republican (just going based on the facts).

Latino men may be trending right, but they are still a Dem-leaning group overall and I don't expect that to change this year.

Trump already did about the same in 2020, probably even a little better with Latino men. Exit polls consistently overrate the proportion of the electorate that is White college-educated and the share that vote for Republicans. Biden probably got upper 50s with both in 2020.

With another cycle of trends, Trump will easily do better with Latino men.