Updated ratings from Split Ticket

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://split-ticket.org/2024/05/18/temperature-check-2024-presidential-election/

Eight rating changes, all to the right:

Michigan and Nevada from Lean D to Tossup.

Georgia and North Carolina from Tossup to Lean R.

Alaska, Ohio, ME-2, and NE-1 from Likely R to Safe R.

Overall: Trump 251, Biden 226, Tossup 61 (AZ, MI, NV, PA, WI).

[Crumpets]

Only things I disagree with are Alaska and ME-2 being considered "safe." Just not enough data to say much at all about either.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Only things I disagree with are Alaska and ME-2 being considered "safe." Just not enough data to say much at all about either.

I also wouldn’t move Georgia just yet, or not if one of the rust belt trio states also aren’t being moved to lean.

[iceman]

overall sensible shifts except for Alaska, I’d say it’s lean R not safe R and I think this is the one state to have a profound shift to Biden among the Trump 2020 states.

Also it doesnt make sense to put Maine-AL as safe D if the 2nd district is safe R. Maine should be Lean D at least. And time to move Florida to safe R.

[President Johnson]

My ratings as of today would be this:

[MR DARK BRANDON]

My ratings as of today would be this:

Mine are this

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

My ratings as of today would be this:

That's close to where I see it, except I think AZ is is Lean Biden. The recent 19th century abortion debacle, combined with Kari Lake being on the ballot again and the general shift in AZ will likely sink Trump unless Biden has such poor performance nationwide that AZ doesn't matter anyway. I.e. I think AZ will vote to the left of all the other undecided states.

Yes, I'm well aware of the polling that shows a strong Trump lead in AZ. I will believe it if I see it in November.

If I am correct, that means Biden needs GA or MI or WI+NV to win, while Trump needs MI and GA and WI or NV.

It is, of course, possible there's a significant nationwide swing for or against either candidate by November and the above becomes most irrelevant as, for example Trump wins PA or Biden wins NC. But if nothing significantly changes between now and November, I think the election is Lean Biden.

[Tekken_Guy]

My ratings as of today would be this:

Either Michigan should be moved to Tilt D or Pennsylvania to toss-up.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Only things I disagree with are Alaska and ME-2 being considered "safe." Just not enough data to say much at all about either.

Yeah it's not like we've any high-quality polls out of them indicating some Trump blowout, and RCV in both of them adds enough of a confounding variable that makes moving them to safe R hard to justify for me.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I won't put GA or NC in the R column blks are key

[Rubensim]

So a another republican gain grounds?
Biden really need better campaign staff if he somehow failing against donald.

[cherry mandarin]

That's close to where I see it, except I think AZ is is Lean Biden. The recent 19th century abortion debacle, combined with Kari Lake being on the ballot again and the general shift in AZ will likely sink Trump unless Biden has such poor performance nationwide that AZ doesn't matter anyway. I.e. I think AZ will vote to the left of all the other undecided states.

Yes, I'm well aware of the polling that shows a strong Trump lead in AZ. I will believe it if I see it in November.

If I am correct, that means Biden needs GA or MI or WI+NV to win, while Trump needs MI and GA and WI or NV.

It is, of course, possible there's a significant nationwide swing for or against either candidate by November and the above becomes most irrelevant as, for example Trump wins PA or Biden wins NC. But if nothing significantly changes between now and November, I think the election is Lean Biden.

Imo Trump is neither an underdog in AZ nor PA right now.

I also wouldn’t move Georgia just yet, or not if one of the rust belt trio states also aren’t being moved to lean.

Why should any of those three states be moved out of the toss-up column? They’re all within 2 points in the polls right now.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

So a another republican gain grounds?
Biden really need better campaign staff if he somehow failing against donald.

Biden should consider replacing his campaign manager, sometimes you have to do that. Trump fired Brad Parscale in July 2020.

[iceman]

My ratings as of today would be this:

That's close to where I see it, except I think AZ is is Lean Biden. The recent 19th century abortion debacle, combined with Kari Lake being on the ballot again and the general shift in AZ will likely sink Trump unless Biden has such poor performance nationwide that AZ doesn't matter anyway. I.e. I think AZ will vote to the left of all the other undecided states.

Yes, I'm well aware of the polling that shows a strong Trump lead in AZ. I will believe it if I see it in November.

If I am correct, that means Biden needs GA or MI or WI+NV to win, while Trump needs MI and GA and WI or NV.

It is, of course, possible there's a significant nationwide swing for or against either candidate by November and the above becomes most irrelevant as, for example Trump wins PA or Biden wins NC. But if nothing significantly changes between now and November, I think the election is Lean Biden.

what’s your basis that the election as of the moment is lean biden wherein the state by state polls says otherwise?

[LAKISYLVANIA]

My ratings as of today would be this:

That's close to where I see it, except I think AZ is is Lean Biden. The recent 19th century abortion debacle, combined with Kari Lake being on the ballot again and the general shift in AZ will likely sink Trump unless Biden has such poor performance nationwide that AZ doesn't matter anyway. I.e. I think AZ will vote to the left of all the other undecided states.

No data backs that up. It's just wishy-washy thinking or gut feeling.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

My ratings as of today would be this:

Mine are this

No data backs it up either.

Imagine thinking kansas is likely R in this environment...

Michigan is no lean D state (and neither is PA, President Johnson). Again no data backs that up, just are ratings based on wishy-washy thinking or personal gut feelings and ignoring that Biden is in trouble.

Might very well change in 6 months from now but if you really believe that, than don't make a map at all...

To observe an election, one has to be neutral and detached in order to have the best chance of accurately predicting the election. It's why i did well in 2018 - predicting all winning senators correctly - and correctly predicted the 2016 and 2020 winners despite not being an American. In fact, not being an American arguably helped, since i'm not as invested in this race as some of users are here...

It's my number 1 rule if one does online betting. Never bet on something you are invested in, because that clouds your judgment.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

My ratings as of today would be this:

Mine are this

No data backs it up either.

Imagine thinking kansas is likely R in this environment...

Michigan is no lean D state (and neither is PA, President Johnson). Again no data backs that up, just are ratings based on wishy-washy thinking or personal gut feelings and ignoring that Biden is in trouble.

Might very well change in 6 months from now but if you really believe that, than don't make a map at all...

To observe an election, one has to be neutral and detached in order to have the best chance of accurately predicting the election. It's why i did well in 2018 - predicting all winning senators correctly - and correctly predicted the 2016 and 2020 winners despite not being an American. In fact, not being an American arguably helped, since i'm not as invested in this race as some of users are here...

It's my number 1 rule if one does online betting. Never bet on something you are invested in, because that clouds your judgment.

To be clear any state I think will be within 15, even if it’s 14.9 (this is roughly where I think KS ends up) gets the “likely” treatment from me

Also polls in all rust belt states show the race within the margin of error, with many having Biden up in those 3 states, so I don’t get you saying there is “no data” to back it up.

Also, there’s more to predicting an election then just polls, for example, fundamentals, fundraising, specials etc all favour Dems. I’m taking this into account

But yeah my prediction can definitely change in 6 months as should come to a surprise to nobody it is a tossup race.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

NC isn't Lean R

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1791985932523938105

[cherry mandarin]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1791985932523938105

Why is NM Safe D? Also, I think NH is more likely to vote to the left of ME-AL than it is to the right of MN.

To be clear any state I think will be within 15, even if it’s 14.9 (this is roughly where I think KS ends up) gets the “likely” treatment from me

In that case, I think Safe D NJ is a little bit crazy.

Polls in all rust belt states show the race within the margin of error … so I don’t get you saying there is “no data” to back it up.

In that case why not call them toss-ups?

Also, there’s more to predicting an election then just polls, for example, fundamentals, fundraising, specials etc all favour Dems. I’m taking this into account

Is presidential approval rating not a “fundamental” now? How about voters’ opinions on the state of the economy?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The problem with pollsters relying so much on Approvals is that in 22 we had inflation and high gas prices and we did well in midterms and there was an epic fail with Laxalt losing in NV, yeah Lombardo won but he is a Sandoval clone and they predicted Kari Lake to win too

As for FL forget it

276/179

[EastwoodS]

Good, Biden deserves nothing.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Good, Biden deserves nothing.

Lol were you here in 22 when the Trafalgar polls were wrong on a red wave, yes you were but you are ignoring it, it's in the database the Trafalgar polls that were wrong

There are always surprise states that's why I hope Biden picks up NC/TX AZ and GA were supposed to be Lean R in 20 but Biden won then

[Rubensim]

Good, Biden deserves nothing.

Lol were you here in 22 when the Trafalgar polls were wrong on a red wave, yes you were but you are ignoring it, it's in the database the Trafalgar polls that were wrong

There are always surprise states that's why I hope Biden picks up NC/TX AZ and GA were supposed to be Lean R in 20 but Biden won then

There a major difference between midterms and presidential election though
Plus everyone could see from a bit of a mile away by July/august that 2022 wasn't going to be a Redwave with roe v wade being overturned and trump endorsing republicans in states were they hated him
Look the polls for months have been saying trump leading and the gap between biden and trump seem to be growing bigger and bigger for donnie so i'm just going to say that this election isn't looking good for joe.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No it's not Biden had a 45% Approval rating in 22, and to try to say that is wrong you Rs lost and about to lose again.

We just haven't voted yet, and think we can't win blue states again in a Prez Eday is preposterous funny