Effect of Trump rally in the Bronx

[jman123]

What effect will Trump's rally in the Bronx have on the November election results in that borough vis a vis 2020?

[MR DARK BRANDON]

He’ll win New York and the entire eastern seaboard now.

[Crumpets]

Having a rally can never really hurt someone, and the rate of return usually makes having one rally instead of zero more impactful than having 28 rallies instead of 27. Also, I think most here agree it looks like greater NYC will probably shift right compared to 2020. That all being said, I really don't think the effect of this rally will be noticeable in any of the data. If the Bronx swings 10 points right, it will be for other reasons (namely the influx of recent migrants) and not because Trump held a rally there.

And while, as I said, rallies can't really hurt, there is a question of whether trying to get the Bronx to be 78-19 Biden rather than 83-16 Biden is the most efficient use of Trump's resources, especially when his schedule is so limited by his trials.

[jman123]

Having a rally can never really hurt someone, and the rate of return usually makes having one rally instead of zero more impactful than having 28 rallies instead of 27. Also, I think most here agree it looks like greater NYC will probably shift right compared to 2020. That all being said, I really don't think the effect of this rally will be noticeable in any of the data. If the Bronx swings 10 points right, it will be for other reasons (namely the influx of recent migrants) and not because Trump held a rally there.

And while, as I said, rallies can't really hurt, there is a question of whether trying to get the Bronx to be 78-19 Biden rather than 83-16 Biden is the most efficient use of Trump's resources, especially when his schedule is so limited by his trials.

I do think the NYC metro area will swing right. Trump probably knows that. Maybe that's why he's doing this

[wnwnwn]

Boriquas trend right?
It make some sense, Trump inmigration policies won't affect them.

[Duke of York]

If Trump is doing this then perhaps Biden should hold an event in West Virginia. Couldn't hurt.

[Old Man Willow]

If Trump is doing this then perhaps Biden should hold an event in West Virginia. Couldn't hurt.

But the true equivalent of this would be him doing a rally in southern WV. I don't think Biden would get the huge influx of attendees from more liberal parts of the state to cover up the negative reception he would get in Mingo county.

[Rubensim]

My prediction?
Trump does a rally in nyc and get a decent/large crowd and well basically all news will cover this and this will probably bump trump numbers up in the entire eastern seaboard
So generally it help trumps number up a good bit

[President Johnson]

He’ll win New York and the entire eastern seaboard now.

Definitely. In order to make the election a tossup again, Biden needs to start doing rallies in Tennessee, Kansas and West Virginia.

[TechbroMBA]

NJ will be decided by <5 points.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

No New York isn't competitive but the point is that its incredibly significant that a presidential candidate especially a Republican is willing to go to the South Bronx which has traditionally been very hostile turf to the GOP. Like sure Biden could go to Kansas, but would he be willing to go to say Wallace county for a campaign event (not government business)?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It won't matter the way he is acting in CRT is ridiculous

[Duke of York]

If Trump is doing this then perhaps Biden should hold an event in West Virginia. Couldn't hurt.

But the true equivalent of this would be him doing a rally in southern WV. I don't think Biden would get the huge influx of attendees from more liberal parts of the state to cover up the negative reception he would get in Mingo county.

He could go to Morgantown or Charleston.

[DaleCooper]

Nothing and unless he dies on stage no one will remember this after two days.

[Liberalrocks]

He will win New York and most counties by similar Reagan 1984 margins. Bigly!

[Schiff for Senate]

No New York isn't competitive but the point is that its incredibly significant that a presidential candidate especially a Republican is willing to go to the South Bronx which has traditionally been very hostile turf to the GOP. Like sure Biden could go to Kansas, but would he be willing to go to say Wallace county for a campaign event (not government business)?

This is fundamentally a false equivalency - there's a dramatic difference is in population, and even in the Bronx there are more than enough Trump supporters to fill up a stadium; a lot more people will be reached out to. Wallace County, otoh, has very few voters at all, let alone Biden voters. The Bronx had 67,000 votes for Trump in 2020, whereas Wallace County (where he won 93% of the vote) gave him just 770 (Biden only won 44). There were, in other words, 87 times as many votes for Trump in the deeply Democratic Bronx as there were in the heavily Republican Wallace County, and 1500 times as many Trump voters in the Bronx as there were Biden voters in Wallace County.

Now do you understand? The issue is less that it's deeply Republican and more that there are literally so few people to reach out to. If UT continues trending leftward, it may actually make sense to hold a rally in Utah County, in spite of it being a deeply conservative bastion, because it still has a pretty large number of voters, including Democrats (Biden won just 26% of the vote there, but that still came to over 76k votes).

[Progressive Pessimist]

Zero effect.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Boosts his black vote to at least 30% obviously