May 2024: Predict the popular vote
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  2024 U.S. Presidential Election (Moderators: Likely Voter, GeorgiaModerate, KoopaDaQuick 🇵🇸)
  May 2024: Predict the popular vote		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: May 2024: Predict the popular vote  (Read 621 times)
Sir Mohamed
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« on: May 16, 2024, 09:00:01 AM »
As of today, I would predict this NPV:

Joe Biden (D, inc.) ... 74.9 million votes | 48.6%
Donald Trump (R) ... 70.5 million votes | 45.8%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (I) ... 3.2 million votes | 2.1%
Libertarian candidate ... 1.7 million votes | 1.1%
Cornel West (I) ... 1 millon votes | 0.7%
Jill Stein (G) ... 1 million votes | 0.7%
Other ... 1.5 million votes | 1.0%

Total votes cast: ~154 million votes


Subject the change over the next months. I hope Biden can reach 50%+ again.
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MR DARK BRANDON
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« Reply #1 on: May 16, 2024, 09:06:44 AM »
Right around where I’d put it
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Agafin
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« Reply #2 on: May 16, 2024, 09:31:08 AM »
Using the same style as you:


Donald Trump (R) ... 75.1 million votes | 47,8%
Joe Biden (D, inc.) ... 71.9 million votes | 45.8%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (I) ... 5.0 million votes | 3.2%
Libertarian candidate ... 1.6 million votes | 1.0%
Cornel West (I) ... 1.1 millon votes | 0.7%
Jill Stein (G) ... 0.9 million votes | 0.6%
Other ... 1.4 million votes | 0,9%

Total votes cast: ~157,0 million votes
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iceman
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« Reply #3 on: May 16, 2024, 09:47:10 AM »
Quote from: Sir Mohamed on May 16, 2024, 09:00:01 AM
As of today, I would predict this NPV:

Joe Biden (D, inc.) ... 74.9 million votes | 48.6%
Donald Trump (R) ... 70.5 million votes | 45.8%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (I) ... 3.2 million votes | 2.1%
Libertarian candidate ... 1.7 million votes | 1.1%
Cornel West (I) ... 1 millon votes | 0.7%
Jill Stein (G) ... 1 million votes | 0.7%
Other ... 1.5 million votes | 1.0%

Total votes cast: ~154 million votes


Subject the change over the next months. I hope Biden can reach 50%+ again.


from 81 million in 2020 to 74 million in 2024. would that be the most raw votes an incumbent lost on record?
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MR DARK BRANDON
Liam
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« Reply #4 on: May 16, 2024, 09:55:55 AM »
Quote from: Sir Mohamed on May 16, 2024, 09:00:01 AM
As of today, I would predict this NPV:

Joe Biden (D, inc.) ... 74.9 million votes | 48.6%
Donald Trump (R) ... 70.5 million votes | 45.8%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (I) ... 3.2 million votes | 2.1%
Libertarian candidate ... 1.7 million votes | 1.1%
Cornel West (I) ... 1 millon votes | 0.7%
Jill Stein (G) ... 1 million votes | 0.7%
Other ... 1.5 million votes | 1.0%

Total votes cast: ~154 million votes


Subject the change over the next months. I hope Biden can reach 50%+ again.
What would this translate into ec wise?
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Agafin
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« Reply #5 on: May 16, 2024, 09:56:18 AM »
Quote from: iceman on May 16, 2024, 09:47:10 AM
Quote from: Sir Mohamed on May 16, 2024, 09:00:01 AM
As of today, I would predict this NPV:

Joe Biden (D, inc.) ... 74.9 million votes | 48.6%
Donald Trump (R) ... 70.5 million votes | 45.8%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (I) ... 3.2 million votes | 2.1%
Libertarian candidate ... 1.7 million votes | 1.1%
Cornel West (I) ... 1 millon votes | 0.7%
Jill Stein (G) ... 1 million votes | 0.7%
Other ... 1.5 million votes | 1.0%

Total votes cast: ~154 million votes


Subject the change over the next months. I hope Biden can reach 50%+ again.


from 81 million in 2020 to 74 million in 2024. would that be the most raw votes an incumbent lost on record?

Bush Sr. lost almost 10 million votes...
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iceman
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« Reply #6 on: May 16, 2024, 10:01:31 AM »
Quote from: Agafin on May 16, 2024, 09:56:18 AM
Quote from: iceman on May 16, 2024, 09:47:10 AM
Quote from: Sir Mohamed on May 16, 2024, 09:00:01 AM
As of today, I would predict this NPV:

Joe Biden (D, inc.) ... 74.9 million votes | 48.6%
Donald Trump (R) ... 70.5 million votes | 45.8%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (I) ... 3.2 million votes | 2.1%
Libertarian candidate ... 1.7 million votes | 1.1%
Cornel West (I) ... 1 millon votes | 0.7%
Jill Stein (G) ... 1 million votes | 0.7%
Other ... 1.5 million votes | 1.0%

Total votes cast: ~154 million votes


Subject the change over the next months. I hope Biden can reach 50%+ again.


from 81 million in 2020 to 74 million in 2024. would that be the most raw votes an incumbent lost on record?

Bush Sr. lost almost 10 million votes...

But Bush Sr. lost, You have Biden winning but still manage to lose 7 million voters.
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MR DARK BRANDON
Liam
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« Reply #7 on: May 16, 2024, 10:03:15 AM »
Quote from: iceman on May 16, 2024, 10:01:31 AM
Quote from: Agafin on May 16, 2024, 09:56:18 AM
Quote from: iceman on May 16, 2024, 09:47:10 AM
Quote from: Sir Mohamed on May 16, 2024, 09:00:01 AM
As of today, I would predict this NPV:

Joe Biden (D, inc.) ... 74.9 million votes | 48.6%
Donald Trump (R) ... 70.5 million votes | 45.8%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (I) ... 3.2 million votes | 2.1%
Libertarian candidate ... 1.7 million votes | 1.1%
Cornel West (I) ... 1 millon votes | 0.7%
Jill Stein (G) ... 1 million votes | 0.7%
Other ... 1.5 million votes | 1.0%

Total votes cast: ~154 million votes


Subject the change over the next months. I hope Biden can reach 50%+ again.


from 81 million in 2020 to 74 million in 2024. would that be the most raw votes an incumbent lost on record?

Bush Sr. lost almost 10 million votes...

But Bush Sr. lost, You have Biden winning but still manage to lose 7 million voters.
And? Trump gained 12 million votes between 2016-2020 and still lost. Turnout is also a factor.
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Vern
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« Reply #8 on: May 16, 2024, 10:07:18 AM »
PV will be a within a point of each other. Ending in a Trump win.
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Agafin
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« Reply #9 on: May 16, 2024, 10:19:10 AM »
Quote from: iceman on May 16, 2024, 10:01:31 AM
Quote from: Agafin on May 16, 2024, 09:56:18 AM
Quote from: iceman on May 16, 2024, 09:47:10 AM
Quote from: Sir Mohamed on May 16, 2024, 09:00:01 AM
As of today, I would predict this NPV:

Joe Biden (D, inc.) ... 74.9 million votes | 48.6%
Donald Trump (R) ... 70.5 million votes | 45.8%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (I) ... 3.2 million votes | 2.1%
Libertarian candidate ... 1.7 million votes | 1.1%
Cornel West (I) ... 1 millon votes | 0.7%
Jill Stein (G) ... 1 million votes | 0.7%
Other ... 1.5 million votes | 1.0%

Total votes cast: ~154 million votes


Subject the change over the next months. I hope Biden can reach 50%+ again.


from 81 million in 2020 to 74 million in 2024. would that be the most raw votes an incumbent lost on record?

Bush Sr. lost almost 10 million votes...

But Bush Sr. lost, You have Biden winning but still manage to lose 7 million voters.

I mean, that wasn't the question.
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Randy Marsh
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« Reply #10 on: May 16, 2024, 12:00:55 PM »
Trump’s favorability is a tad higher than Biden’s and has remained as such for over a year now

Trump +1
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #11 on: May 16, 2024, 12:02:59 PM »
Biden +3
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #12 on: May 16, 2024, 12:09:27 PM »
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kwabbit
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« Reply #13 on: May 16, 2024, 12:21:23 PM »
As of today, I would predict this NPV:

Joe Biden (D, inc.) ... 72.3 million votes | 47.0%
Donald Trump (R) ... 70.1 million votes | 45.5%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (I) ... 8.5 million votes | 5.5%
Libertarian candidate ... 1.1 million votes | 0.7%
Cornel West (I) ... 0.3 millon votes | 0.2%
Jill Stein (G) ... 1.5 million votes | 1.0%
Other ... 0.2 million votes | 0.1%

Total votes cast: ~154 million votes
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Arizona Iced Tea
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« Reply #14 on: May 16, 2024, 12:49:43 PM »
Biden+1.5
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #15 on: May 16, 2024, 01:12:51 PM »
I think it's Biden +4 like it was last time Biden winning NC instead of GA but we will see AZ and NV won't be Trump 12 or Trump 7
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here2view
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« Reply #16 on: May 16, 2024, 02:47:34 PM »
Biden 49%
Trump 46%
Kennedy 3.5%
Libertarian 0.6%
Stein 0.4%
West 0.3%
Others 0.2%
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #17 on: May 16, 2024, 03:45:28 PM »
Biden+3. Which should be a win for him, but could also be close enough for him to lose.
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Agonized-Statism
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« Reply #18 on: May 16, 2024, 04:54:56 PM »
Biden +1, but then I've never expected Republicans to win the popular vote.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #19 on: May 16, 2024, 04:58:08 PM »
Quote from: Sir Mohamed on May 16, 2024, 09:00:01 AM
As of today, I would predict this NPV:

Joe Biden (D, inc.) ... 74.9 million votes | 48.6%
Donald Trump (R) ... 70.5 million votes | 45.8%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (I) ... 3.2 million votes | 2.1%
Libertarian candidate ... 1.7 million votes | 1.1%
Cornel West (I) ... 1 millon votes | 0.7%
Jill Stein (G) ... 1 million votes | 0.7%
Other ... 1.5 million votes | 1.0%

Total votes cast: ~154 million votes


Subject the change over the next months. I hope Biden can reach 50%+ again.

I expect the EC college to be us losing GA and winning NC
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progressive85
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« Reply #20 on: May 16, 2024, 10:57:02 PM »
47.53% Trump
47.42% Biden
  5.05% All others
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Medal506
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« Reply #21 on: May 17, 2024, 05:42:56 PM »
Quote from: iceman on May 16, 2024, 09:47:10 AM
Quote from: Sir Mohamed on May 16, 2024, 09:00:01 AM
As of today, I would predict this NPV:

Joe Biden (D, inc.) ... 74.9 million votes | 48.6%
Donald Trump (R) ... 70.5 million votes | 45.8%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (I) ... 3.2 million votes | 2.1%
Libertarian candidate ... 1.7 million votes | 1.1%
Cornel West (I) ... 1 millon votes | 0.7%
Jill Stein (G) ... 1 million votes | 0.7%
Other ... 1.5 million votes | 1.0%

Total votes cast: ~154 million votes


Subject the change over the next months. I hope Biden can reach 50%+ again.


from 81 million in 2020 to 74 million in 2024. would that be the most raw votes an incumbent lost on record?

Obama lost around 5 million votes in 2012. Yeah that sounds right
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MillennialModerate
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« Reply #22 on: May 18, 2024, 05:44:59 PM »


Joe Biden (D, inc.) ... 47.3%
Donald Trump (R) ... 46.9%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (I) ...  4.6%
Other ... 0.8%
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LAKISYLVANIA
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« Reply #23 on: May 18, 2024, 05:50:44 PM »
« Edited: May 18, 2024, 05:57:20 PM by LAKISYLVANIA »

Joe Biden (D, inc.) 46.5%
Donald Trump (R) 45.9%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (I) 3.9%
Cornel West (I) 1.3%
Jill Stein (G) 0.9%
Libertarian candidate 0.8%
Other 0.7%

Resulting in a Trump 2016 + NV win. With MN as the closest state.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #24 on: May 19, 2024, 05:38:11 AM »
Biden 48%
Trump 47%
RFK Jr. 2.5%
Others 2.5%

Something like that, with Trump probably winning more than 270 electoral votes.
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