As of Mid May, which state is the most likely to flip Trump?

[David Hume]

I used to think GA and it's not even close. But after Alsobrooks winning by more than 12%, I believe that polling are hard to reach blacks, and likely youth. The current Trump winning black 30% and even among youth is wrong for sure. As the result, I am not so confident about GA.

I am also not so sure about NV. The Trump +13 poll is absurd, but Trump may be ahead of Biden. I am shocked by CCM winning in 22, and not too sure how 24 would be a better environment.

I think the most likely flip is either GA or NV, which slightly favor Trump. AZ and WI are toss ups. PA and MI slightly favor Biden. NC clearly favors Trump and it's very unlikely it will flip.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

NV

[iceman]

I used to think GA and it's not even close. But after Alsobrooks winning by more than 12%, I believe that polling are hard to reach blacks, and likely youth. The current Trump winning black 30% and even among youth is wrong for sure. As the result, I am not so confident about GA.

I am also not so sure about NV. The Trump +13 poll is absurd, but Trump may be ahead of Biden. I am shocked by CCM winning in 22, and not too sure how 24 would be a better environment.

I think the most likely flip is either GA or NV, which slightly favor Trump. AZ and WI are toss ups. PA and MI slightly favor Biden. NC clearly favors Trump and it's very unlikely it will flip.

I’d put Michigan and Pennsylvania as toss-ups as well. How could these 2 be lean Biden at minimum wherein Polls show a deadheat in Michigan and Biden hasn’t led in a poll in Pennsylvania since March?

[David Hume]

I used to think GA and it's not even close. But after Alsobrooks winning by more than 12%, I believe that polling are hard to reach blacks, and likely youth. The current Trump winning black 30% and even among youth is wrong for sure. As the result, I am not so confident about GA.

I am also not so sure about NV. The Trump +13 poll is absurd, but Trump may be ahead of Biden. I am shocked by CCM winning in 22, and not too sure how 24 would be a better environment.

I think the most likely flip is either GA or NV, which slightly favor Trump. AZ and WI are toss ups. PA and MI slightly favor Biden. NC clearly favors Trump and it's very unlikely it will flip.

I’d put Michigan and Pennsylvania as toss-ups as well. How could these 2 be lean Biden at minimum wherein Polls show a deadheat in Michigan and Biden hasn’t led in a poll in Pennsylvania since March?

Polls are inaccurate, especially on blacks and youth.

[iceman]

I used to think GA and it's not even close. But after Alsobrooks winning by more than 12%, I believe that polling are hard to reach blacks, and likely youth. The current Trump winning black 30% and even among youth is wrong for sure. As the result, I am not so confident about GA.

I am also not so sure about NV. The Trump +13 poll is absurd, but Trump may be ahead of Biden. I am shocked by CCM winning in 22, and not too sure how 24 would be a better environment.

I think the most likely flip is either GA or NV, which slightly favor Trump. AZ and WI are toss ups. PA and MI slightly favor Biden. NC clearly favors Trump and it's very unlikely it will flip.

I’d put Michigan and Pennsylvania as toss-ups as well. How could these 2 be lean Biden at minimum wherein Polls show a deadheat in Michigan and Biden hasn’t led in a poll in Pennsylvania since March?

Polls are inaccurate, especially on blacks and youth.

if polls are inaccurate, what’s the basis of the posters here on placing Michigan and Pennsylvania as lean Biden? through conventional wisdom? or purely wishcasting? gut feeling can also be as inaccurate as polling too.

[TDAS04]

Georgia or Nevada.