In the end who does RFK Jr Take more from?

[Canis]

If you had to guess at this point who will Rfk Jr take more from?
 In my experience, I have two friends who voted for Trump in 2020 who plan to vote for RFK jr they've been turned off by trumps legal troubles and just like Kennedy. I also have three friends now whove told me there planning on voting for RFKjr who voted for Biden in 2020. I came up with this thread because of a convo I had with one of them today. I asked them who they'd vote for if Kennedy doesn't make the ballot and one told me theyd back Trump, the other two said they probably wouldn't vote. So in my experience its 3-2 Biden but I live in a heavily democratic area so the results may be different overall. His high favorability with GOP voters makes me think he will probably end up taking slightly more from Trump but I expect it to be so close that the difference will be marginal and I doubt it will effect the election that much. 

[GeorgiaModerate]

My gut feeling is that he takes some from both, but a bit more from Trump, maybe 60-40.

[Canis]

My gut feeling is that he takes some from both, but a bit more from Trump, maybe 60-40.

That's the range im thinking too

[ProgressiveModerate]

I think he takes more disaffected people who self-identify as being on the left, but a higher share of those on the left were never voting for Biden anyways so he actually takes more from Trump.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I really don't know. And I don't think we will know for sure until late October at the earliest.

[iceman]

It’s not hard to comprehend that Trump’s support has been stable since 2020 hovering around 44-45% and that it’s Biden who is clearly losing huge support from his 51% in 2020. So the obvious answer is that RFK is taking more from Biden.

[dspNY]

It’s hard to say. Some polling shows RFK Jr taking more from Biden while other polling shows the opposite. Thats why this election is so tough to call

[GeorgiaModerate]

It’s not hard to comprehend that Trump’s support has been stable since 2020 hovering around 44-45% and that it’s Biden who is clearly losing huge support from his 51% in 2020. So the obvious answer is that RFK is taking more from Biden.

You're assuming that without RFK in the race, Biden and Trump would have the same levels of support they did in 2020.  This is unlikely to be true.

[iceman]

It’s not hard to comprehend that Trump’s support has been stable since 2020 hovering around 44-45% and that it’s Biden who is clearly losing huge support from his 51% in 2020. So the obvious answer is that RFK is taking more from Biden.

You're assuming that without RFK in the race, Biden and Trump would have the same levels of support they did in 2020.  This is unlikely to be true.

No, what I’m saying is that based on the recent polls, Trump’s support is still around 44-46% which is close to what he had 2020 while biden is around 44-46% as well. It’s clear that Trump is not gaining, it’s only Biden that’s losing support. Which is why RFK is taking more from the incumbent than the challenger. They keyword there is “more” not all.

[Agafin]

It’s not hard to comprehend that Trump’s support has been stable since 2020 hovering around 44-45% and that it’s Biden who is clearly losing huge support from his 51% in 2020. So the obvious answer is that RFK is taking more from Biden.

You're assuming that without RFK in the race, Biden and Trump would have the same levels of support they did in 2020.  This is unlikely to be true.

No, what I’m saying is that based on the recent polls, Trump’s support is still around 44-46% which is close to what he had 2020 while biden is around 44-46% as well. It’s clear that Trump is not gaining, it’s only Biden that’s losing support. Which is why RFK is taking more from the incumbent than the challenger. They keyword there is “more” not all.

It could just as well mean that Trump has lost some voters and gained others which is why his overall % hasn't changed much. And that's very obviously the case, Trump's coalition in 2024 isn't the same as his 2016 coalition. It is less white and educated.

As for the OP, I think he'll take from both. I previously thought he might get more from Trump, but him coming out strongly in favor of third term abortion greatly limits that so I now think he'll take more from Biden but not by much.

[Sir Mohamed]

Both equally, though there are more ideological similarties between him and Trump. That said, I don't believe he will come even close to the current polling numbers.

[ReaganLimbaugh]

Hurts Biden more....Kennedy is a democrat.  Although I hope Democrats continue to think he hurts Trump more.

[Rubensim]

Depends
I got a feeling that while the republicans are freaking out about the thought of kennedy taking votes from them when election come RFK jr going to take  a good percentage of the votes from joe.

[Aliens]

Completely anecdotal, but I don't know any Biden/RFK supporters, and I know a few Trump/RFK supporters. I think it'll end up being close, with more from Trump.

[Coldstream]

I think anyone seriously considering RFK Jr has probably already ruled out Biden, so my instinct is Trump.