Will at least 2 states flip in 2024?

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

Every election since the dawn of the 2-party system has had at least 2 states flip. Will 2024 continue, or buck, this trend?

[iceman]

3-4 maybe

I could see Georgia, Nevada, Wisconsin and Michigan flip

[Schiff for Senate]

Every election since the dawn of the 2-party system has had at least 2 states flip.

That's an interesting factoid I didn't know about...

Anyway, yes, if for no other reason than the historical trend you mentioned. Although there's an outside chance of this election being a historical first (while it's unlikely, it's plausible that no states / only one state flips from 2020), on the whole, it's likelier 2 or more states flip.

The reason you've gotta be careful is, what if Biden ends up doing a lot better than 2020 and wins by a little more than he did last time? In that case the only likely flip would be NC. That's a possibility that doesn't seem very likely, but it's certainly not impossible.

[Schiff for Senate]

3-4 maybe

I could see Georgia, Nevada, Wisconsin and Michigan flip

If GA flips so does AZ.

[iceman]

3-4 maybe

I could see Georgia, Nevada, Wisconsin and Michigan flip

If GA flips so does AZ.

actually for me, Arizona is the least likely for Trump to flip among all the battleground states.

[Schiff for Senate]

3-4 maybe

I could see Georgia, Nevada, Wisconsin and Michigan flip

If GA flips so does AZ.

actually for me, Arizona is the least likely for Trump to flip among all the battleground states.

I suppose AZ might be less susceptible to a GOP flip because of the abortion initiative. But even then, I'm not sure it's that much more likely to remain in Biden's camp than the other states.

[cherry mandarin]

In all likelihood, yes.

[wnwnwn]

It would be fun if both NV and NC flip.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

NC is on the verge of flipping blue so no

[iceman]

There’s not a single poll this year that showed Biden ahead in North Carolina. If there are going to be 2 or more states that’s going to flip, it has to be a Biden 2020 state. Georgia and Nevada are the best candidates as Trump has a consistent leads in both since December 2023.

[BlueSwan]

I'd put the odds of at least two states flipping at 95%+. Georgia, Arizona and Nevada are all near certainties to flip. Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are quite likely to flip and Minnesota could well be flipping as well.

[Tekken_Guy]

3-4 maybe

I could see Georgia, Nevada, Wisconsin and Michigan flip

If those four states all flip I'm pretty certain Arizona is flipping as well.

[Eraserhead]

Yeah, Trump may flip several states.

Biden's only shot at a flip is probably North Carolina.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yes GA can turn red and NC blue due to Gov race

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

That's why I have NC still D due to the S race

[Agonized-Statism]

Almost guaranteed.

[TDAS04]

Greater than a 50:50 chance.

[Pres Mike]

If President Biden wins, no

[Vice President Christian Man]

Trump's far more likely to flip a state than Biden, although I wouldn't rule out NC flipping if everything goes right for Biden. NV+GA seem the most likely to flip.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump's far more likely to flip a state than Biden, although I wouldn't rule out NC flipping if everything goes right for Biden. NV+GA seem the most likely to flip.

You Rs really think the Vegas burbs which Rs have no chance of flipping a H seat thinks that Trump is gonna flip NV which the polls including Emerson had Laxalt winning, are gonna be disappointed