Fox: Trump +1
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  Fox: Trump +1
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Author Topic: Fox: Trump +1  (Read 650 times)
wbrocks67
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« on: May 15, 2024, 05:18:09 PM »

Trump (R) 49%
Biden (D) 48%

Trump +5 in March (50-45)

Trump (R) 43%
Biden (D) 40%
RFK 11%
Stein 2%
West 2%

Trump +5 in March (43-38)

Biden approval 45/55 (best since Jan 2023)

https://www.foxnews.com/official-polls/fox-news-poll-leading-presidential-race-questions-2024
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #1 on: May 15, 2024, 05:21:30 PM »

Kaiser already has Biden ahead, but given it's Fox I see Trump advantage has decreased, meaning it's a 303 map
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #2 on: May 15, 2024, 05:23:45 PM »

Other tidbits:

In 2020, only 6% of voters had an unfavorable opinion of both Biden and Trump, and they backed Biden by 17 points according to the Fox News Voter Analysis election survey. Currently, 13% fall in the double hater category and they favor Biden by 11 (48-37%). Thatís despite 87% of them disapproving of the job he is doing and 78% saying the economy is getting worse.

Plus, many who only somewhat disapprove of Bidenís job performance still back his re-election (41%), while virtually all who strongly disapprove favor Trump (93%).

Views on the economy remain negative by more than 2-to-1 (70% negative vs. 30% positive), yet they are at their most positive in nearly three years. Thirty percent rate economic conditions as excellent or good, up from 17%, the lowest during Bidenís presidency (July 2022). The last time sentiment was this optimistic was in Bidenís first year in office, when in September 2021 it was 30% positive vs. 69% negative.

RFK takes 10% of Biden voters and 9% of Trump voters, but Biden falls more in the multi-way bc Stein and West grab 6% of Biden voters and only 1% of Trump voters
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MR DARK BRANDON
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« Reply #3 on: May 15, 2024, 05:24:39 PM »

Interesting how Trump only dropped one yet Biden rose 3
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #4 on: May 15, 2024, 05:27:14 PM »

Interesting how Trump only dropped one yet Biden rose 3

This one has somewhat more realistic young/nonwhite tabs than the last one. I believe the last Fox poll had Trump winning young voters by like 18% or something lol, now they appear to be even
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GAinDC
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« Reply #5 on: May 15, 2024, 05:29:03 PM »

Very solid approval rating for Biden
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #6 on: May 15, 2024, 05:38:04 PM »

RFK has also dropped in every Fox poll the last 5. He's gone 15-14-13-12-11
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #7 on: May 15, 2024, 05:40:20 PM »

Is Trump gaining? Is Biden gaining? Are both losing support? There is still no real clear narrative from national polls.
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Matty
boshembechle
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« Reply #8 on: May 15, 2024, 05:41:40 PM »

Seems quite realistic.

Fox finds that rfk hurts Biden more than trump.

I think the March poll was probably a bit rosy for trump.

One thing to note: Trump is at 49% in this poll. Thatís well above the ď46%Ē that so many on here claim is his ceiling
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Matty
boshembechle
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« Reply #9 on: May 15, 2024, 05:47:24 PM »

Is Trump gaining? Is Biden gaining? Are both losing support? There is still no real clear narrative from national polls.

at this moment in time, the national race is basically a tie. Thatís a 5 point shift from 2020, which likely means trump at this moment in time has a lead in the swing states

The key point: at this moment in time
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Matty
boshembechle
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« Reply #10 on: May 15, 2024, 05:52:13 PM »

Heh, fox decides to be contrarian:

Trump leads by 3 among extremely motivated
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #11 on: May 15, 2024, 06:06:23 PM »

Not a terrible poll for Biden. This race might be absurdly close.

How many state ballots is West even going to be on? They should possibly stop including him... especially if they aren't going to include the Libertarian candidate and others.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #12 on: May 15, 2024, 07:17:48 PM »

Heh, fox decides to be contrarian:

Trump leads by 3 among extremely motivated

Meh, extremely motivated isn't a great gauge imo. It's not the same as likelihood to vote. There's truthfully probably more 'motivated' Trump supporters than Biden supporters, but that doesn't mean they're more likely to actually vote.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #13 on: May 15, 2024, 07:18:53 PM »

Is Trump gaining? Is Biden gaining? Are both losing support? There is still no real clear narrative from national polls.

Basically all of the polling currently is between Trump +2 and Biden +2 for the most part, so I'd say the national race is basically tied-ish right now, though we've had more low single digit Biden leads among higher quality pollsters than for Trump
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #14 on: May 15, 2024, 08:35:05 PM »

Is Trump gaining? Is Biden gaining? Are both losing support? There is still no real clear narrative from national polls.

Basically all of the polling currently is between Trump +2 and Biden +2 for the most part, so I'd say the national race is basically tied-ish right now, though we've had more low single digit Biden leads among higher quality pollsters than for Trump

It's inflation and we are just gonna have to vote we are gonna win but the polls been biased since the R primary, this is a Fox poll
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EastwoodS
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« Reply #15 on: May 15, 2024, 10:07:50 PM »

Interesting how Trump only dropped one yet Biden rose 3
Aw, cute.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #16 on: May 16, 2024, 01:22:00 AM »

Basically confirms this a tossup race.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #17 on: May 16, 2024, 05:41:59 AM »

Basically confirms this a tossup race.

This is a Fox poll it's Lean Biden
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Umengus
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« Reply #18 on: May 16, 2024, 06:55:53 AM »

Very solid approval rating for Biden

the bad new for Biden is that he loses even with 45% job approval. This confirms what Sean Tread has said in the past, who set the bar at 47% to win the popular vote. Biden would have need 50% to win EC.
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dspNY
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« Reply #19 on: May 16, 2024, 07:09:42 AM »

Seems quite realistic.

Fox finds that rfk hurts Biden more than trump.

I think the March poll was probably a bit rosy for trump.

One thing to note: Trump is at 49% in this poll. Thatís well above the ď46%Ē that so many on here claim is his ceiling

Interesting because we still canít get clarity on who RFK Jr hurts more, which makes this race much harder to prognosticate. If RFK Jr hurts Trump more then Trump will actually benefit when RFK Jrís support inevitably collapses. Same thing is true if RFK Jr hurts Biden more. Biden would gain in that instance
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GAinDC
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« Reply #20 on: May 16, 2024, 07:13:29 AM »

Very solid approval rating for Biden

the bad new for Biden is that he loses even with 45% job approval. This confirms what Sean Tread has said in the past, who set the bar at 47% to win the popular vote. Biden would have need 50% to win EC.

This poll is tied. Itís well within margin of error
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dspNY
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« Reply #21 on: May 16, 2024, 07:22:35 AM »

Very solid approval rating for Biden

the bad new for Biden is that he loses even with 45% job approval. This confirms what Sean Tread has said in the past, who set the bar at 47% to win the popular vote. Biden would have need 50% to win EC.

I think Biden can win with 45% JA only because his opponent is Trump. Any generic Republican and Biden loses, possibly by 2008 margins
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