Trump margin in Florida?
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  2024 U.S. Presidential Election (Moderators: Likely Voter, GeorgiaModerate, KoopaDaQuick 🇵🇸)
  Trump margin in Florida?		 « previous next »
Pages: [1]
Poll
Question: How much does Trump win in Florida?
#1
0.1% - 1%		  
#2
1% - 5%		  
#3
5% - 10%		  
#4
more than 10%		  
#5
he loses Florida		  
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Partisan results
Total Voters: 37

Author Topic: Trump margin in Florida?  (Read 334 times)
iceman
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« on: May 15, 2024, 11:38:18 AM »
How much do you think will the margin be in Florida in November?
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holtridge
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« Reply #1 on: May 15, 2024, 11:39:46 AM »
Quote from: iceman on May 15, 2024, 11:38:18 AM
How much do you think will the margin be in Florida in November?
Trump by 8%in Florida. I still can't believe Obama won there twice.
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iceman
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« Reply #2 on: May 15, 2024, 11:42:40 AM »
Quote from: holtridge on May 15, 2024, 11:39:46 AM
Quote from: iceman on May 15, 2024, 11:38:18 AM
How much do you think will the margin be in Florida in November?
Trump by 8%in Florida. I still can't believe Obama won there twice.

at this point I would guess 8-9% too. But it would not come as a shock if he manage to win double digits. Biden is just too unpopular here in Florida.
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DS0816
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« Reply #3 on: May 15, 2024, 12:15:17 PM »
« Edited: May 15, 2024, 12:21:56 PM by DS0816 »
Quote from: iceman on May 15, 2024, 11:38:18 AM
How much do you think will the margin be in Florida in November?

My current guesses:

• U.S. Popular Vote: R+3 (pickup, here, and U.S. President)
• Florida: R+12
• Florida vs. National: R+9
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DS0816
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« Reply #4 on: May 15, 2024, 12:20:43 PM »
Quote from: holtridge on May 15, 2024, 11:39:46 AM
Quote from: iceman on May 15, 2024, 11:38:18 AM
How much do you think will the margin be in Florida in November?
Trump by 8%in Florida. I still can't believe Obama won there twice.


Florida votes like Ohio.

They are both ex-bellwether states.

Ohio voted for all winners, except in 1944 and 1960, from 1896 to 2016.

Florida voted for all winners, except in 1960 and 1992, from 1928 to 2016.

Ohio voted for all winners, for 14 consecutive cycles, from 1964 to 2016.

Florida, with exception in 1992, agreed with Ohio during that period.

Since 1928, but with exceptions in 1944 and 1992, Florida and Ohio have voted the same.

Barack Obama carrying both states, in 2008 and 2012, was not surprising.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #5 on: May 15, 2024, 03:49:41 PM »
6 to 9 points.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #6 on: May 15, 2024, 04:42:52 PM »
He will lose it by 9
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Thank you for being a friend...
progressive85
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« Reply #7 on: May 15, 2024, 04:46:27 PM »
Something like this, so 10 points?

Trump: 54%
Biden: 44%
Others: 2%
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #8 on: May 15, 2024, 04:52:00 PM »
Biden path is exactly Hillary path but it won't be that red in the 303 states
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iceman
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« Reply #9 on: May 16, 2024, 07:27:35 AM »
Quote from: Thank you for being a friend... on May 15, 2024, 04:46:27 PM
Something like this, so 10 points?

Trump: 54%
Biden: 44%
Others: 2%

At this margin, Biden is only winning Gadsden, Leon, Orange, Osceola, Alachua, Palm Beach and Broward.
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Compuzled_One
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« Reply #10 on: May 17, 2024, 11:45:32 AM »
That, at best, need a 10% swing in Biden's favor, which would require competence his campaign does not yet seem to have.
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