Presidential debate megathread (debate 1: June 27, 9pm EDT, CNN)

[Tekken_Guy]

I'm going to put something a bit raw and personal on display.

Watching this debate tonight again, I felt bad for Biden.

Let me explain why.

My father, age 70, has been suffering for approximately the last 8 - 10 months with an unspecified memory impairment. It was originally thought to be a condition called NPH, after an MRI in August of last year revealed enlarged ventricles of the brain. Unfortunately because I live far I haven't been able to force any significant cognitive testing - and I also wouldn't know what exactly to administer beyond the Montreal test. And it is hard frankly to get my father to focus enough to keep appointments and such anyway.

My father in his prime was a very, very, very sharp individual - I say this looking at it objectively and without personal bias. He had a quick wit - think Fox Mulder in the X-Files - and a studious and curious mind and he had a job which came with a lot of responsibility and with it the monitoring of people's lives - he was a RN who worked as a Charge Nurse on a psychiatric floor.

My father still has really good days where frankly, you wouldn't realize anything was wrong; days that are like his best where he is clear and sharp and the same old sharp and insightful Dad.

Then he also has very bad days where he forgets things from moment to moment.

Then he has fuzzy days that lie on a spectrum somewhere in between those two points.

That being said, Biden's performance tonight reminded me a great deal of my father on one of those ''in between'' days.

Not out of it enough to have severe impairment, but enough that he seemed scattered mentally, out of touch and incoherent - enough that a once sharp guy who brutalized Paul Ryan in 2012 - could handily lose to Donald Trump, of all people, who he once trounced and who is not renowned for the depths of his intellect.

Enough of a bad day that everyone here even his most ardent supporters and all but the most hackish saw it.

I've been seeing this decline in Biden for a while now, but I wasn't sure as to its cause, and like many who resisted the gaslighting that has gone on, I was called a troll for seeing it.

I'm still particular not sure what is going on with Biden as I am not a physician. But I know what my eyes and ears perceived; and I know what I see in my personal life dealing with my father and in observing Biden over 16 years.

I know that both men are cognitively unfit to lead a country.

This debate has finalized my decision to either abstain from voting entirely for the first time since I was 18 - or, write in another candidate's name, as, I cannot either endorse the cruelty or reckless narcissism of Donald Trump, but neither can I cannot vote a cognitively impaired man into a high stress job for another 4 years.

Not voting at all is a vote for Trump.

It’s half as powerful as an actual vote for Trump.

[Obama24]

I'm going to put something a bit raw and personal on display.

Watching this debate tonight again, I felt bad for Biden.

Let me explain why.

My father, age 70, has been suffering for approximately the last 8 - 10 months with an unspecified memory impairment. It was originally thought to be a condition called NPH, after an MRI in August of last year revealed enlarged ventricles of the brain. Unfortunately because I live far I haven't been able to force any significant cognitive testing - and I also wouldn't know what exactly to administer beyond the Montreal test. And it is hard frankly to get my father to focus enough to keep appointments and such anyway.

My father in his prime was a very, very, very sharp individual - I say this looking at it objectively and without personal bias. He had a quick wit - think Fox Mulder in the X-Files - and a studious and curious mind and he had a job which came with a lot of responsibility and with it the monitoring of people's lives - he was a RN who worked as a Charge Nurse on a psychiatric floor.

My father still has really good days where frankly, you wouldn't realize anything was wrong; days that are like his best where he is clear and sharp and the same old sharp and insightful Dad.

Then he also has very bad days where he forgets things from moment to moment.

Then he has fuzzy days that lie on a spectrum somewhere in between those two points.

That being said, Biden's performance tonight reminded me a great deal of my father on one of those ''in between'' days.

Not out of it enough to have severe impairment, but enough that he seemed scattered mentally, out of touch and incoherent - enough that a once sharp guy who brutalized Paul Ryan in 2012 - could handily lose to Donald Trump, of all people, who he once trounced and who is not renowned for the depths of his intellect.

Enough of a bad day that everyone here even his most ardent supporters and all but the most hackish saw it.

I've been seeing this decline in Biden for a while now, but I wasn't sure as to its cause, and like many who resisted the gaslighting that has gone on, I was called a troll for seeing it.

I'm still particular not sure what is going on with Biden as I am not a physician. But I know what my eyes and ears perceived; and I know what I see in my personal life dealing with my father and in observing Biden over 16 years.

I know that both men are cognitively unfit to lead a country.

This debate has finalized my decision to either abstain from voting entirely for the first time since I was 18 - or, write in another candidate's name, as, I cannot either endorse the cruelty or reckless narcissism of Donald Trump, but neither can I cannot vote a cognitively impaired man into a high stress job for another 4 years.

Not voting at all is a vote for Trump.

I live in a blue state (New York) in an area of that state that has gone consistently blue since 1968, even voting for Mondale over Reagan in 1984, so my vote is a drop in an ocean anyway.

I have to vote my conscience on this matter, and my conscience tells me neither is fit to lead.

One is a destructive and narcissistic bully who thinks he is the best thing since sliced bread; and the other is a once sharp and vital guy that is a shadow of his former self. I do not vote for administrations or bureaucrats to lead this country in the name of someone else; and I will not do so in this case.

[MichaelM24]

I'm going to put something a bit raw and personal on display.

Watching this debate tonight again, I felt bad for Biden.

Let me explain why.

My father, age 70, has been suffering for approximately the last 8 - 10 months with an unspecified memory impairment. It was originally thought to be a condition called NPH, after an MRI in August of last year revealed enlarged ventricles of the brain. Unfortunately because I live far I haven't been able to force any significant cognitive testing - and I also wouldn't know what exactly to administer beyond the Montreal test. And it is hard frankly to get my father to focus enough to keep appointments and such anyway.

My father in his prime was a very, very, very sharp individual - I say this looking at it objectively and without personal bias. He had a quick wit - think Fox Mulder in the X-Files - and a studious and curious mind and he had a job which came with a lot of responsibility and with it the monitoring of people's lives - he was a RN who worked as a Charge Nurse on a psychiatric floor.

My father still has really good days where frankly, you wouldn't realize anything was wrong; days that are like his best where he is clear and sharp and the same old sharp and insightful Dad.

Then he also has very bad days where he forgets things from moment to moment.

Then he has fuzzy days that lie on a spectrum somewhere in between those two points.

That being said, Biden's performance tonight reminded me a great deal of my father on one of those ''in between'' days.

Not out of it enough to have severe impairment, but enough that he seemed scattered mentally, out of touch and incoherent - enough that a once sharp guy who brutalized Paul Ryan in 2012 - could handily lose to Donald Trump, of all people, who he once trounced and who is not renowned for the depths of his intellect.

Enough of a bad day that everyone here even his most ardent supporters and all but the most hackish saw it.

I've been seeing this decline in Biden for a while now, but I wasn't sure as to its cause, and like many who resisted the gaslighting that has gone on, I was called a troll for seeing it.

I'm still particular not sure what is going on with Biden as I am not a physician. But I know what my eyes and ears perceived; and I know what I see in my personal life dealing with my father and in observing Biden over 16 years.

I know that both men are cognitively unfit to lead a country.

This debate has finalized my decision to either abstain from voting entirely for the first time since I was 18 - or, write in another candidate's name, as, I cannot either endorse the cruelty or reckless narcissism of Donald Trump, but neither can I cannot vote a cognitively impaired man into a high stress job for another 4 years.

Not voting at all is a vote for Trump.

Which is why they should consider voting for one of the many third party or independent options.

And on a side-note, not voting is in no way magically "a vote for Trump" any more than it's a vote for Biden or a vote for Randall Terry or a vote for Michael Wood (Prohibition Party nominee, if you're wondering).

If Biden and Trump were tied at 65 million votes, and 129 million people didn't vote, those 129 million non-votes don't magically end up in Trump's column.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I'm going to put something a bit raw and personal on display.

Watching this debate tonight again, I felt bad for Biden.

Let me explain why.

My father, age 70, has been suffering for approximately the last 8 - 10 months with an unspecified memory impairment. It was originally thought to be a condition called NPH, after an MRI in August of last year revealed enlarged ventricles of the brain. Unfortunately because I live far I haven't been able to force any significant cognitive testing - and I also wouldn't know what exactly to administer beyond the Montreal test. And it is hard frankly to get my father to focus enough to keep appointments and such anyway.

My father in his prime was a very, very, very sharp individual - I say this looking at it objectively and without personal bias. He had a quick wit - think Fox Mulder in the X-Files - and a studious and curious mind and he had a job which came with a lot of responsibility and with it the monitoring of people's lives - he was a RN who worked as a Charge Nurse on a psychiatric floor.

My father still has really good days where frankly, you wouldn't realize anything was wrong; days that are like his best where he is clear and sharp and the same old sharp and insightful Dad.

Then he also has very bad days where he forgets things from moment to moment.

Then he has fuzzy days that lie on a spectrum somewhere in between those two points.

That being said, Biden's performance tonight reminded me a great deal of my father on one of those ''in between'' days.

Not out of it enough to have severe impairment, but enough that he seemed scattered mentally, out of touch and incoherent - enough that a once sharp guy who brutalized Paul Ryan in 2012 - could handily lose to Donald Trump, of all people, who he once trounced and who is not renowned for the depths of his intellect.

Enough of a bad day that everyone here even his most ardent supporters and all but the most hackish saw it.

I've been seeing this decline in Biden for a while now, but I wasn't sure as to its cause, and like many who resisted the gaslighting that has gone on, I was called a troll for seeing it.

I'm still particular not sure what is going on with Biden as I am not a physician. But I know what my eyes and ears perceived; and I know what I see in my personal life dealing with my father and in observing Biden over 16 years.

I know that both men are cognitively unfit to lead a country.

This debate has finalized my decision to either abstain from voting entirely for the first time since I was 18 - or, write in another candidate's name, as, I cannot either endorse the cruelty or reckless narcissism of Donald Trump, but neither can I cannot vote a cognitively impaired man into a high stress job for another 4 years.

Not voting at all is a vote for Trump.

Which is why they should consider voting for one of the many third party or independent options.

And on a side-note, not voting is in no way magically "a vote for Trump" any more than it's a vote for Biden or a vote for Randall Terry or a vote for Michael Wood (Prohibition Party nominee, if you're wondering).

If Biden and Trump were tied at 65 million votes, and 129 million people didn't vote, those 129 million non-votes don't magically end up in Trump's column.

But they don't end up in Biden and may lead to Trump winning. That's why it's honestly a binary choice no matter what, I'm sorry.

[President Johnson]

There's not much more to say here, but I wonder why Trump recently is so obsessed with his "mental institutions" stuff lately. It's almost comical. Even how he pronounces the word.

[MichaelM24]

I'm going to put something a bit raw and personal on display.

Watching this debate tonight again, I felt bad for Biden.

Let me explain why.

My father, age 70, has been suffering for approximately the last 8 - 10 months with an unspecified memory impairment. It was originally thought to be a condition called NPH, after an MRI in August of last year revealed enlarged ventricles of the brain. Unfortunately because I live far I haven't been able to force any significant cognitive testing - and I also wouldn't know what exactly to administer beyond the Montreal test. And it is hard frankly to get my father to focus enough to keep appointments and such anyway.

My father in his prime was a very, very, very sharp individual - I say this looking at it objectively and without personal bias. He had a quick wit - think Fox Mulder in the X-Files - and a studious and curious mind and he had a job which came with a lot of responsibility and with it the monitoring of people's lives - he was a RN who worked as a Charge Nurse on a psychiatric floor.

My father still has really good days where frankly, you wouldn't realize anything was wrong; days that are like his best where he is clear and sharp and the same old sharp and insightful Dad.

Then he also has very bad days where he forgets things from moment to moment.

Then he has fuzzy days that lie on a spectrum somewhere in between those two points.

That being said, Biden's performance tonight reminded me a great deal of my father on one of those ''in between'' days.

Not out of it enough to have severe impairment, but enough that he seemed scattered mentally, out of touch and incoherent - enough that a once sharp guy who brutalized Paul Ryan in 2012 - could handily lose to Donald Trump, of all people, who he once trounced and who is not renowned for the depths of his intellect.

Enough of a bad day that everyone here even his most ardent supporters and all but the most hackish saw it.

I've been seeing this decline in Biden for a while now, but I wasn't sure as to its cause, and like many who resisted the gaslighting that has gone on, I was called a troll for seeing it.

I'm still particular not sure what is going on with Biden as I am not a physician. But I know what my eyes and ears perceived; and I know what I see in my personal life dealing with my father and in observing Biden over 16 years.

I know that both men are cognitively unfit to lead a country.

This debate has finalized my decision to either abstain from voting entirely for the first time since I was 18 - or, write in another candidate's name, as, I cannot either endorse the cruelty or reckless narcissism of Donald Trump, but neither can I cannot vote a cognitively impaired man into a high stress job for another 4 years.

Not voting at all is a vote for Trump.

Which is why they should consider voting for one of the many third party or independent options.

And on a side-note, not voting is in no way magically "a vote for Trump" any more than it's a vote for Biden or a vote for Randall Terry or a vote for Michael Wood (Prohibition Party nominee, if you're wondering).

If Biden and Trump were tied at 65 million votes, and 129 million people didn't vote, those 129 million non-votes don't magically end up in Trump's column.

But they don't end up in Biden and may lead to Trump winning. That's why it's honestly a binary choice no matter what, I'm sorry.

So if Biden and Trump are tied at 65 million votes, and there's 129 million non-voters, than those 129 million non-votes break the tie?

Boy, despite my major being political science back in my college days, I didn't know non-votes magically broke ties like that. Such amaze.

[Obama24]

There's not much more to say here, but I wonder why Trump recently is so obsessed with his "mental institutions" stuff lately. It's almost comical. Even how he pronounces the word.

Because he belongs in one and on some level knows it. A lot of Trump's BS is, and always was, a heavy dose of projection. Were we in Gotham he'd be a great candidate for Arkham Asylum.

[philly09]

https://twitter.com/josh_wingrove/status/1806557425861878214

[SnowLabrador]

https://twitter.com/josh_wingrove/status/1806557425861878214

Present the data, otherwise it's not true.

[GAinDC]

It was a bad performance by Biden but probably perceived as even worse by hardcore partisans like ourselves who only think a match up like this goes well if our candidate wipes the floor with the other. I don’t think swing voters are seeing things as negatively toward Biden.

This debate highlighted each candidate’s weaknesses — Biden’s age and Trump’s corruption and lack of substance. Biden had more to prove (unfortunately) and he didn’t meet the moment, but all this talk of his dropping out is silly. That’s not going to happen, and in a few days we’ll all be talking about something else.

[CookieDamage]

The denialism is concerning. We're talking about a deeply unpopular president whose struggled with age concerns absolutely bomb a debate. It wasn't a minor gaffe or a typical deflection. He was absolutely struggling and validated much of the popular concern regarding his age and cognitive state. To argue otherwise is foolish. Dems are in deep trouble and it's better to admit this now.

[Tekken_Guy]

The denialism is concerning. We're talking about a deeply unpopular president whose struggled with age concerns absolutely bomb a debate. It wasn't a minor gaffe or a typical deflection. He was absolutely struggling and validated much of the popular concern regarding his age and cognitive state. To argue otherwise is foolish. Dems are in deep trouble and it's better to admit this now.

Biden still has a 40% chance of being re-elected. Trump is definitely the favorite but it’s not fatal for Biden.

[CookieDamage]

The denialism is concerning. We're talking about a deeply unpopular president whose struggled with age concerns absolutely bomb a debate. It wasn't a minor gaffe or a typical deflection. He was absolutely struggling and validated much of the popular concern regarding his age and cognitive state. To argue otherwise is foolish. Dems are in deep trouble and it's better to admit this now.

Biden still has a 40% chance of being re-elected. Trump is definitely the favorite but it’s not fatal for Biden.

Oh it's quite fatal

[Tekken_Guy]

The denialism is concerning. We're talking about a deeply unpopular president whose struggled with age concerns absolutely bomb a debate. It wasn't a minor gaffe or a typical deflection. He was absolutely struggling and validated much of the popular concern regarding his age and cognitive state. To argue otherwise is foolish. Dems are in deep trouble and it's better to admit this now.

Biden still has a 40% chance of being re-elected. Trump is definitely the favorite but it’s not fatal for Biden.

Oh it's quite fatal

What chances do you give him?

[Inmate Trump]

The denialism is concerning. We're talking about a deeply unpopular president whose struggled with age concerns absolutely bomb a debate. It wasn't a minor gaffe or a typical deflection. He was absolutely struggling and validated much of the popular concern regarding his age and cognitive state. To argue otherwise is foolish. Dems are in deep trouble and it's better to admit this now.

Biden still has a 40% chance of being re-elected. Trump is definitely the favorite but it’s not fatal for Biden.

Oh it's quite fatal

What chances do you give him?

I know the question isn’t directed at me but I agree that it’s fatal.

Trump is the next president and I’d give it 90% odds as of today (probably lowering to 70-80% over the next few months). Biden gave the worst presidential debate performance in modern history. Nothing matters about last night except the impression that Biden *reinforced* among the electorate that he’s mentally unfit. Not only reinforced but highlighted and heightened.

Trump mostly kept his cool and played it safe. Trump by far looked more presidential and that’s a weird thing to say. People who have been undecided decided last night, guaranteed.

Assuming Biden doesn’t drop out, the election is Trump’s to lose. Even as a convicted felon. Even as a potentially imprisoned criminal.

[Tekken_Guy]

The denialism is concerning. We're talking about a deeply unpopular president whose struggled with age concerns absolutely bomb a debate. It wasn't a minor gaffe or a typical deflection. He was absolutely struggling and validated much of the popular concern regarding his age and cognitive state. To argue otherwise is foolish. Dems are in deep trouble and it's better to admit this now.

Biden still has a 40% chance of being re-elected. Trump is definitely the favorite but it’s not fatal for Biden.

Oh it's quite fatal

What chances do you give him?

I know the question isn’t directed at me but I agree that it’s fatal.

Trump is the next president and I’d give it 90% odds as of today (probably lowering to 70-80% over the next few months). Biden gave the worst presidential debate performance in modern history. Nothing matters about last night except the impression that Biden *reinforced* among the electorate that he’s mentally unfit. Not only reinforced but highlighted and heightened.

Trump mostly kept his cool and played it safe. Trump by far looked more presidential and that’s a weird thing to say. People who have been undecided decided last night, guaranteed.

Assuming Biden doesn’t drop out, the election is Trump’s to lose. Even as a convicted felon. Even as a potentially imprisoned criminal.

What were the odds of him winning pre-debate?

[CookieDamage]

The denialism is concerning. We're talking about a deeply unpopular president whose struggled with age concerns absolutely bomb a debate. It wasn't a minor gaffe or a typical deflection. He was absolutely struggling and validated much of the popular concern regarding his age and cognitive state. To argue otherwise is foolish. Dems are in deep trouble and it's better to admit this now.

Biden still has a 40% chance of being re-elected. Trump is definitely the favorite but it’s not fatal for Biden.

Oh it's quite fatal

What chances do you give him?

As of now I'd say 25%

[Tekken_Guy]

The denialism is concerning. We're talking about a deeply unpopular president whose struggled with age concerns absolutely bomb a debate. It wasn't a minor gaffe or a typical deflection. He was absolutely struggling and validated much of the popular concern regarding his age and cognitive state. To argue otherwise is foolish. Dems are in deep trouble and it's better to admit this now.

Biden still has a 40% chance of being re-elected. Trump is definitely the favorite but it’s not fatal for Biden.

Oh it's quite fatal

What chances do you give him?

As of now I'd say 25%

What was it beforehand?

[Inmate Trump]

The denialism is concerning. We're talking about a deeply unpopular president whose struggled with age concerns absolutely bomb a debate. It wasn't a minor gaffe or a typical deflection. He was absolutely struggling and validated much of the popular concern regarding his age and cognitive state. To argue otherwise is foolish. Dems are in deep trouble and it's better to admit this now.

Biden still has a 40% chance of being re-elected. Trump is definitely the favorite but it’s not fatal for Biden.

Oh it's quite fatal

What chances do you give him?

I know the question isn’t directed at me but I agree that it’s fatal.

Trump is the next president and I’d give it 90% odds as of today (probably lowering to 70-80% over the next few months). Biden gave the worst presidential debate performance in modern history. Nothing matters about last night except the impression that Biden *reinforced* among the electorate that he’s mentally unfit. Not only reinforced but highlighted and heightened.

Trump mostly kept his cool and played it safe. Trump by far looked more presidential and that’s a weird thing to say. People who have been undecided decided last night, guaranteed.

Assuming Biden doesn’t drop out, the election is Trump’s to lose. Even as a convicted felon. Even as a potentially imprisoned criminal.

What were the odds of him winning pre-debate?

IMO they were 50/50 with maybe a very slight edge to Biden. I think undecideds would have broken for him when push came to shove. I don’t think that now. They’ll either stay home, vote Trump, or vote 3rd party…but I think Biden disqualified himself to a lot of people last night.

[CookieDamage]

The denialism is concerning. We're talking about a deeply unpopular president whose struggled with age concerns absolutely bomb a debate. It wasn't a minor gaffe or a typical deflection. He was absolutely struggling and validated much of the popular concern regarding his age and cognitive state. To argue otherwise is foolish. Dems are in deep trouble and it's better to admit this now.

Biden still has a 40% chance of being re-elected. Trump is definitely the favorite but it’s not fatal for Biden.

Oh it's quite fatal

What chances do you give him?

As of now I'd say 25%

What was it beforehand?

Honestly like 50/50 since Trumps conviction. Even then it didn't seem the conviction did all that much to hurt Trump or help Biden in the polls and narrative. Now Biden pretty much validated every age criticism directed towards him.

[Tekken_Guy]

The denialism is concerning. We're talking about a deeply unpopular president whose struggled with age concerns absolutely bomb a debate. It wasn't a minor gaffe or a typical deflection. He was absolutely struggling and validated much of the popular concern regarding his age and cognitive state. To argue otherwise is foolish. Dems are in deep trouble and it's better to admit this now.

Biden still has a 40% chance of being re-elected. Trump is definitely the favorite but it’s not fatal for Biden.

Oh it's quite fatal

What chances do you give him?

I know the question isn’t directed at me but I agree that it’s fatal.

Trump is the next president and I’d give it 90% odds as of today (probably lowering to 70-80% over the next few months). Biden gave the worst presidential debate performance in modern history. Nothing matters about last night except the impression that Biden *reinforced* among the electorate that he’s mentally unfit. Not only reinforced but highlighted and heightened.

Trump mostly kept his cool and played it safe. Trump by far looked more presidential and that’s a weird thing to say. People who have been undecided decided last night, guaranteed.

Assuming Biden doesn’t drop out, the election is Trump’s to lose. Even as a convicted felon. Even as a potentially imprisoned criminal.

What were the odds of him winning pre-debate?

IMO they were 50/50 with maybe a very slight edge to Biden. I think undecideds would have broken for him when push came to shove. I don’t think that now. They’ll either stay home, vote Trump, or vote 3rd party…but I think Biden disqualified himself to a lot of people last night.

How about the PV?

[Tekken_Guy]

The denialism is concerning. We're talking about a deeply unpopular president whose struggled with age concerns absolutely bomb a debate. It wasn't a minor gaffe or a typical deflection. He was absolutely struggling and validated much of the popular concern regarding his age and cognitive state. To argue otherwise is foolish. Dems are in deep trouble and it's better to admit this now.

Biden still has a 40% chance of being re-elected. Trump is definitely the favorite but it’s not fatal for Biden.

Oh it's quite fatal

What chances do you give him?

As of now I'd say 25%

What was it beforehand?

Honestly like 50/50 since Trumps conviction. Even then it didn't seem the conviction did all that much to hurt Trump or help Biden in the polls and narrative. Now Biden pretty much validated every age criticism directed towards him.

What exact votes are going to change from this?

[Inmate Trump]

The denialism is concerning. We're talking about a deeply unpopular president whose struggled with age concerns absolutely bomb a debate. It wasn't a minor gaffe or a typical deflection. He was absolutely struggling and validated much of the popular concern regarding his age and cognitive state. To argue otherwise is foolish. Dems are in deep trouble and it's better to admit this now.

Biden still has a 40% chance of being re-elected. Trump is definitely the favorite but it’s not fatal for Biden.

Oh it's quite fatal

What chances do you give him?

I know the question isn’t directed at me but I agree that it’s fatal.

Trump is the next president and I’d give it 90% odds as of today (probably lowering to 70-80% over the next few months). Biden gave the worst presidential debate performance in modern history. Nothing matters about last night except the impression that Biden *reinforced* among the electorate that he’s mentally unfit. Not only reinforced but highlighted and heightened.

Trump mostly kept his cool and played it safe. Trump by far looked more presidential and that’s a weird thing to say. People who have been undecided decided last night, guaranteed.

Assuming Biden doesn’t drop out, the election is Trump’s to lose. Even as a convicted felon. Even as a potentially imprisoned criminal.

What were the odds of him winning pre-debate?

IMO they were 50/50 with maybe a very slight edge to Biden. I think undecideds would have broken for him when push came to shove. I don’t think that now. They’ll either stay home, vote Trump, or vote 3rd party…but I think Biden disqualified himself to a lot of people last night.

How about the PV?

Who knows but Trump winning the PV wouldn’t surprise me like it would have before.

[Tekken_Guy]

The denialism is concerning. We're talking about a deeply unpopular president whose struggled with age concerns absolutely bomb a debate. It wasn't a minor gaffe or a typical deflection. He was absolutely struggling and validated much of the popular concern regarding his age and cognitive state. To argue otherwise is foolish. Dems are in deep trouble and it's better to admit this now.

Biden still has a 40% chance of being re-elected. Trump is definitely the favorite but it’s not fatal for Biden.

Oh it's quite fatal

What chances do you give him?

I know the question isn’t directed at me but I agree that it’s fatal.

Trump is the next president and I’d give it 90% odds as of today (probably lowering to 70-80% over the next few months). Biden gave the worst presidential debate performance in modern history. Nothing matters about last night except the impression that Biden *reinforced* among the electorate that he’s mentally unfit. Not only reinforced but highlighted and heightened.

Trump mostly kept his cool and played it safe. Trump by far looked more presidential and that’s a weird thing to say. People who have been undecided decided last night, guaranteed.

Assuming Biden doesn’t drop out, the election is Trump’s to lose. Even as a convicted felon. Even as a potentially imprisoned criminal.

What were the odds of him winning pre-debate?

IMO they were 50/50 with maybe a very slight edge to Biden. I think undecideds would have broken for him when push came to shove. I don’t think that now. They’ll either stay home, vote Trump, or vote 3rd party…but I think Biden disqualified himself to a lot of people last night.

How about the PV?

Who knows but Trump winning the PV wouldn’t surprise me like it would have before.

I’m not as bullish on Trump as other are. I still think it’s a 60-40% race and Biden’s odds taking a hit are mostly uncertainty about his nomination. Trump only got a slight boost in the betting markets ant he’s right at 60%, honestly.

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/josh_wingrove/status/1806557425861878214

Bulls***! American voters didn't somehow become this sane overnight from an objectively bad debate performance.

I don't know why they were so sane in 2022 and 2023, but it doesn't look like it's going to last.