YouGov/Yahoo: Tie

[Splash]

Trump - 45%
Biden - 45%

https://www.yahoo.com/news/new-yahoo-newsyougov-poll-with-trumps-trial-underway-most-americans-now-believe-he-falsified-records-to-hide-hush-money-payment-194508677.html

Could a conviction have political consequences for Trump? Possibly. In a head-to-head matchup, Trump (45%) and President Biden (45%) remain tied among registered voters, just like they were last month.

But when voters are asked which candidate they would vote for “if Trump is convicted of a serious crime in the coming months,” just 39% say the former president — while Biden’s backing ticks up 1 point in that scenario, to 46%, giving him a 7-point advantage.

[GAinDC]

sorry, but I just don't believe a conviction will hurt Trump.

People are demurring now, but those soft supporters will find a way to justify still backing him, probably by claiming the trial wasn't fair.

[Matty]

I find it interesting that the conviction result barely shows movement toward Biden, simply movement away from trump

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I find it interesting that the conviction result barely shows movement toward Biden, simply movement away from trump

Of course you don't but there are other polls showing Biden leads by 3

[wbrocks67]

sorry, but I just don't believe a conviction will hurt Trump.

People are demurring now, but those soft supporters will find a way to justify still backing him, probably by claiming the trial wasn't fair.

Yeah, most of his supporters will likely still stay. Even if you look at the tabs for the question, it only becomes Biden +7 because 10% of the Trump supporters suddenly move to 'don't know' - no one is moving to Biden. So I imagine they will all come home in the end.  Biden's best bet with that situation is that all of the originally undecided all do not move to Trump in the end and he's able to conoslidate those folks.

[Progressive Pessimist]

sorry, but I just don't believe a conviction will hurt Trump.

People are demurring now, but those soft supporters will find a way to justify still backing him, probably by claiming the trial wasn't fair.

I don't think the issue is the conviction itself as much as it's the inevitable spin the Republicans will coalesce with to mitigate it. They did that after Access Hollywood, January 6, etc.

That, and the conviction persisting in Americans' minds to election day are the bigger issues than them not caring at all. They just need to maintain caring, and thankfully, I think a conviction by a jury gives Biden the cover to talk more openly about Trump being an official criminal.