Nate Silver thinks Trump will overperform his polling again because he did so twice before

[kwabbit]

"well it happened in the past so therefore it'll happen again for sure!"

He did not even say that Trump will over perform his polling. He just said that Biden is not guaranteed to given that polls underestimated Democrats in 2022.

How are there 50 replies to this thread and not a single one seems to actually have read his tweet? Thread title needs to be changed since people are trying to dunk on Silver from glancing at Tekken Guy’s incorrect interpretation.

[emailking]

I think it's reasonable to infer from the X post that he thinks Trump will overperform again, even though he did not state that explicitly.

[emailking]

Dang I just got a PHARAOH rec. My life's complete.💜

[Landslide Lyndon]

Silver is now railing against Biden (again) because he "destroyed" the traditional way debates were organized.
Have I missed something here? Did Biden kill his dog, stole his girlfriend, spit in his coffee?
Because I don't understand otherwise this visceral hate.

[mileslunn]

It is hard to say.  One thing Democrats can take to heart is pollsters when wrong often overcompensate.  UK 2015 and UK 2017 good examples of this as in 2015 overestimated Labour but in 2017 opposite happened.

At same time I do think Trump has advantage for simple reason his supporters are more motivated than Biden's.  Also despite all the negatives of Trump, more you hear more people become to immune to it and I feel much of his shocking stuff in 2016 no longer shocks people.

[Lief 🗽]

Silver is now railing against Biden (again) because he "destroyed" the traditional way debates were organized.
Have I missed something here? Did Biden kill his dog, stole his girlfriend, spit in his coffee?
Because I don't understand otherwise this visceral hate.

He’s basically turned into a right-wing crank because he’s mad that people made him wear a mask for a few months 4 years ago. That and his humiliating firing by ABC after he blew the 2020 election (and his replacement with bright young thing Elliot Morris) seems to have sent him over the edge.

[Pericles]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/861945983143469056
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/861949745073442821

[cherry mandarin]

he blew the 2020 election

What did he predict?

[Kamala's side hoe]

he blew the 2020 election

What did he predict?

That Biden had a 80-90% chance of winning, which did actually happen? The only notable error I remember from the "EC snake" was GA being more R than NC. GA flipping before NC makes sense in hindsight but wasn't obvious outside the region at the time.

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/861945983143469056

This isn't a clear indicator that 2024-PRES polls will underestimate Trump given how "Trump overperforms teh pollz" has sort of become conventional wisdom.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Pollster Sir Muhammad is right it's a 74/70 M Eday all of Hillary leads outside of the Rust belt were 50/46 it's in You tube and Brown and Tester won 50/46 or 50/44 in 2012 and Trump is gonna win TX 50/46

That's why Trump is never goñna win NV by 12 or AZ by 7 Vegas suburbs and Tucson AZ are too D Lean the polls are lies

[DaleCooper]

I don't understand why it's even controversial to say that Trump will underperform these polls. The polls are saying that he is ahead by about 10 points in many of the swing states. If you think Trump will do that well then you don't understand the American electorate. That's clearly Nate Aluminum's situation.

[DaleCooper]

Regardless, I'm really glad that Democrats are finding themselves at odds with these intolerable data geeks. The post-2012 notion that every election can be predicted using fake statistics has caused a lot of problems for the Democrats.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

NV and AZ always have an R bias but we have Phoenix and Vegas that will drive out D and I suspect NC will vote to left of GA due to Stein it is so close Gov race

[cherry mandarin]

This isn't a clear indicator that 2024-PRES polls will underestimate Trump, given how "Trump overperforms teh pollz" has sort of become conventional wisdom.

I think they’re trying to say that Biden should be expected to outperform his polling, based on Silver’s own “rule”.

Anyways, did 538 have Trump or Biden favoured in GA?

[Arizona Iced Tea]

This isn't a clear indicator that 2024-PRES polls will underestimate Trump, given how "Trump overperforms teh pollz" has sort of become conventional wisdom.

I think they’re trying to say that Biden should be expected to outperform his polling, based on Silver’s own “rule”.

Anyways, did 538 have Trump or Biden favoured in GA?

Both the 538 polling and forecast had Biden ahead in GA by 1-2 points.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

The more I hear from Nate the more I dislike him. A lot of his arguments boil down to “if you’re criticizing the polling, you don’t understand it.”

[UncleSam]

Silver is now railing against Biden (again) because he "destroyed" the traditional way debates were organized.
Have I missed something here? Did Biden kill his dog, stole his girlfriend, spit in his coffee?
Because I don't understand otherwise this visceral hate.

He’s basically turned into a right-wing crank because he’s mad that people made him wear a mask for a few months 4 years ago. That and his humiliating firing by ABC after he blew the 2020 election (and his replacement with bright young thing Elliot Morris) seems to have sent him over the edge.

His 2020 predictions were pretty good though…? Maybe a bit too favorable to Biden but still.

[7,052,770]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/861945983143469056

But the conventional wisdom is that Trump is going to overperform his polls, so Nate's not even being consistent anymore...

[South Dakota Democrat]

His point about polling missing in the opposite direction of conventional wisdom is nonscientific garbage.

[emailking]

I'm actually not sure if the conventional wisdom is that Trump will overperform his polls because he has twice before, or if he will underperform his polls because pollsters are overcompensating after the last 2 elections. In any case, I think Nate's "rule" is a rule of thumb at best. A more likely than not thing.

[Pericles]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/861945983143469056

But the conventional wisdom is that Trump is going to overperform his polls, so Nate's not even being consistent anymore...

This is an old tweet, I'm pointing out that 2024 Nate Silver is arguing against 2017 Nate Silver.

[7,052,770]

I'm actually not sure if the conventional wisdom is that Trump will overperform his polls because he has twice before, or if he will underperform his polls because pollsters are overcompensating after the last 2 elections. In any case, I think Nate's "rule" is a rule of thumb at best. A more likely than not thing.

I guess it could be argued either way, so Nate can claim he was right no matter what happens.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

His point about polling missing in the opposite direction of conventional wisdom is nonscientific garbage.

I said this earlier, but if an error is truly an error it can’t be predicted in advance, otherwise it would and should be accounted for. True errors are random. Having the same or predictable bias is just bad science.

[All Along The Watchtower]

Trump didn’t substantially overperform his polls in 2016 once you factor in the Comey Letter. 

But as long as we’re looking at past performance it’s been 20 years since the Republican nominee got more votes than the Democrat.

[HisGrace]

His point about polling missing in the opposite direction of conventional wisdom is nonscientific garbage.

It's also just a paradox, like saying something only happens when "you least expect it". If I think it's going to happen when I'm not expecting it, that means I'm expecting it when I'm not expecting it in which case it wouldn't happen and on and on back and forth.