Your thoughts on the current 538 polling averages

[wbrocks67]

Wisconsin: Trump +0.6
Michigan: Trump +1.2
Pennsylvania: Trump +1.8

Arizona: Trump +3.4

Georgia: Trump +6.0
North Carolina: Trump +6.3
Nevada: Trump +6.8

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Seems accurate. I think Biden will do a little better in Nevada, but not enough to win.

[ProgressiveModerate]

For me I just struggle to see how Trump gets those sorts of margins out of AZ and GA.

In Arizona, reverting back to a 2016 margin would have to run through Maricopa and Pima counties which I just struggle to seek, especially since I think Biden is poised to maintain or grow his support in most of the Pheonix and Tucson suburbs.

Similar situation in GA; where does this 6% swing right come from? I think it's unlikely metro Atlanta which is almost half the state swings right yet alone 6% to the right. He's really going to have to get some massive swings out of rural GA that I just don't buy are possible given Rs already get 80-90% of the white vote in many places and Southern Blacks are some of the most loyal to Dems. I think a lot of Trump's strong margins in GA polling comes from polls showing Biden only getting 60% of the black vote when that is unrealistically low in any circumstance. Blacks are ~30% of the GA electorate in a normal election so polls being off by >40 point margins with black voters could have pretty large impacts on the topline, even if there are other smaller polling errors that work in Biden's favor.\

The only recent elections we have with Rs winning GA by >5% margin are from Republicans who ran on being at least somewhat anti-Trump and gained back a lot of support in the Atlanta suburbs. Trump is not going to be doing that.

The shift map below (2020 Pres --> 2022 Sen) is a leftwards shift of the state. Metro Atlanta is really a beast, and even pretty modest leftwards shifts can be hard to offset.



The other states seem more reasonable. Nevada has factors that make me see larger swings more possible there. MI/WI/PA are pretty close to 2016/2020 results and within the MOE. NC's margin is perahps a bit too much for Trump but he already won the state in 2020.

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

I am subtracting 4 points from the Nevada Trump margin, until there is an election result to prove that NV polling has been fixed.

I think WI Trump margin is way too low, I expect it to be Trump's best of the Midwest trio. I largely think that is the result of the outlier Quinnipiac poll.

Is 538 really including those RFK, Jr. Zogby polls? I know you dislike RCP, but an RFK internal from Zogby is worse than any polling inclusion/ exclusion that RCP has ever done.

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

RCP at present:

Wisconsin: Trump +0.6
Michigan: Trump +0.8
Pennsylvania: Trump +2.0

Arizona: Trump +5.2

Georgia: Trump +4.6
North Carolina: Trump +5.4
Nevada: Trump +6.2

wbrocks, I wonder if you change your tune on 538 vs RCP- RCP is marginally better for Biden right now.

[wbrocks67]

RCP at present:

Wisconsin: Trump +0.6
Michigan: Trump +0.8
Pennsylvania: Trump +2.0

Arizona: Trump +5.2

Georgia: Trump +4.6
North Carolina: Trump +5.4
Nevada: Trump +6.2

wbrocks, I wonder if you change your tune on 538 vs RCP- RCP is marginally better for Biden right now.

Nope, I haven't. It doesn't matter which is better for Biden, it matters who is more methodological about it. I think 538 also accepts a little too much junk, but at least if they're going to include everything, they try to account for it all with weighting. RCP just picks and chooses, and that's not the right way to go.

[Tekken_Guy]

RCP at present:

Wisconsin: Trump +0.6
Michigan: Trump +0.8
Pennsylvania: Trump +2.0

Arizona: Trump +5.2

Georgia: Trump +4.6
North Carolina: Trump +5.4
Nevada: Trump +6.2

wbrocks, I wonder if you change your tune on 538 vs RCP- RCP is marginally better for Biden right now.

RCP still has Trump up by a bit more at the tipping point.

[LostInOhio]

My thoughts are that *chuckles* I’m in danger

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

(Snipped)
Similar situation in GA; where does this 6% swing right come from? I think it's unlikely metro Atlanta which is almost half the state swings right yet alone 6% to the right. He's really going to have to get some massive swings out of rural GA that I just don't buy are possible given Rs already get 80-90% of the white vote in many places and Southern Blacks are some of the most loyal to Dems. I think a lot of Trump's strong margins in GA polling comes from polls showing Biden only getting 60% of the black vote when that is unrealistically low in any circumstance. Blacks are ~30% of the GA electorate in a normal election so polls being off by >40 point margins with black voters could have pretty large impacts on the topline, even if there are other smaller polling errors that work in Biden's favor.\

(Snipped)

I wish I could find the tweets from late 2018/early 2019 talking about this, but have Republicans maxed on rural whites in Georgia? And maybe the rural have gone more Republican since 2020 (noting the 2022 map), but then there’s always the question of how much raw vote do they have compared to the Atlanta metro.

I remember mentioning it in a post several years back: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=418032.msg7823632#msg7823632

In general, I think the margins are a bit Trump friendly, but AZ and GA are the standouts to me too.

[Eraserhead]

My thoughts are Biden isn't down and out yet but he is in rough shape.

[GoTfan]

I think Biden's close to being completely knocked out of it. It's going to take a lot to come back at this point, but I'm just getting to the point of accepting that Trump will win again. Is there any hope for that changing? I don't see a lot right now.

[Tekken_Guy]

My thoughts are Biden isn't down and out yet but he is in rough shape.

I think Biden's close to being completely knocked out of it. It's going to take a lot to come back at this point, but I'm just getting to the point of accepting that Trump will win again. Is there any hope for that changing? I don't see a lot right now.

For Trump to be the clear favorite he’ll likely need to fortify one of the three rust belt swing states and/or NE-02 (assuming Biden doesn’t rebound in the sun belt). Until he does that, this race is a toss-up.

[GoTfan]

My thoughts are Biden isn't down and out yet but he is in rough shape.

I think Biden's close to being completely knocked out of it. It's going to take a lot to come back at this point, but I'm just getting to the point of accepting that Trump will win again. Is there any hope for that changing? I don't see a lot right now.

For Trump to be the clear favorite he’ll likely need to fortify one of the three rust belt swing states and/or NE-02 (assuming Biden doesn’t rebound in the sun belt). Until he does that, this race is a toss-up.

I think the sun belt is gone. As far as the rust belt, Trump is favoured there quite comfortably right now.

[Tekken_Guy]

My thoughts are Biden isn't down and out yet but he is in rough shape.

I think Biden's close to being completely knocked out of it. It's going to take a lot to come back at this point, but I'm just getting to the point of accepting that Trump will win again. Is there any hope for that changing? I don't see a lot right now.

For Trump to be the clear favorite he’ll likely need to fortify one of the three rust belt swing states and/or NE-02 (assuming Biden doesn’t rebound in the sun belt). Until he does that, this race is a toss-up.

I think the sun belt is gone. As far as the rust belt, Trump is favoured there quite comfortably right now.

In all three rust belt states?

[7,052,770]

Hope they're wrong...

[GoTfan]

My thoughts are Biden isn't down and out yet but he is in rough shape.

I think Biden's close to being completely knocked out of it. It's going to take a lot to come back at this point, but I'm just getting to the point of accepting that Trump will win again. Is there any hope for that changing? I don't see a lot right now.

For Trump to be the clear favorite he’ll likely need to fortify one of the three rust belt swing states and/or NE-02 (assuming Biden doesn’t rebound in the sun belt). Until he does that, this race is a toss-up.

I think the sun belt is gone. As far as the rust belt, Trump is favoured there quite comfortably right now.

In all three rust belt states?

I usually assume that undecideds will break for the challenger because grievance and negativism sells.

[BlueSwan]

I don't remember any US election feeling this over and done 6 months out since Clinton-Dole in 1996. Sure, the margins aren't huge by any means, but Trumps lead is extremely stable and it is hard to imagine what could possibly change it up. If you aren't convinced by now that Trump should never ever be allowed back in the white house, I really have no idea what could possibly convince you.

[Tekken_Guy]

I don't remember any US election feeling this over and done 6 months out since Clinton-Dole in 1996. Sure, the margins aren't huge by any means, but Trumps lead is extremely stable and it is hard to imagine what could possibly change it up. If you aren't convinced by now that Trump should never ever be allowed back in the white house, I really have no idea what could possibly convince you.

Undecideds breaking for Biden, polling error in the rust belt.

[BlueSwan]

I don't remember any US election feeling this over and done 6 months out since Clinton-Dole in 1996. Sure, the margins aren't huge by any means, but Trumps lead is extremely stable and it is hard to imagine what could possibly change it up. If you aren't convinced by now that Trump should never ever be allowed back in the white house, I really have no idea what could possibly convince you.

Undecideds breaking for Biden, polling error in the rust belt.

Strikes me as grasping at straws.

Undecideds aren't your usual undecideds. This is the single most black or white election in modern american history. Pretty much everybody who is even remotely likely to actually vote has an opinion on these two candidates.

Last two presidential elections has seen massive polling errors in particularly the rust belt/midwestern states, but in the opposite direction, which suggests that pollsters has a very hard time reaching a certain type of Trump voter in those types of states. In that light I find it FAR more likely that polls will underestimate Trump yet again in those states, than they will somehow have overcorrected and are now underestimating Biden.

I'm not really saying that it is OVER over. No presidential election is that 6 months out, not even Clinton-Dole, but to me, no presidential candidate has been as heavily favoured to win as Trump is this time since 1996. The fact that betting companies has had this as a dead heat for months strikes me as ridiculous. I have had Trump at 90% for quite a while now, meaning that unless something truly dramatic happens he wins (which given that we are talking about Trump isn't THAT unlikely). If I was a betting man and didn't have a risk-averse wife, then I'd put a good fortune on a Trump win.

[emailking]

Clinton-Dole also had a 4 point polling error against Clinton. No one cares since it was still a blowout, but put a 4 point polling error against the leader on those margins above and Biden wins.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

The polls are just like 2020 but shifted 10% to the right for some reason.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The polls are just like 2020 but shifted 10% to the right for some reason.

.
The polls were right in 22 too they were wrong

[Sir Mohamed]

Just confirms that the Rust Belt as of today is a pure tossup and Trump is slightly favored in the Sunbelt States. Biden for sure can overcome latter, though overall he's not in the position he should be.

[Tekken_Guy]

Just confirms that the Rust Belt as of today is a pure tossup and Trump is slightly favored in the Sunbelt States. Biden for sure can overcome latter, though overall he's not in the position he should be.

Biden’s still in an OK position because Trump still needs at least one rust belt state to win.

[kwabbit]

For me I just struggle to see how Trump gets those sorts of margins out of AZ and GA.

In Arizona, reverting back to a 2016 margin would have to run through Maricopa and Pima counties which I just struggle to seek, especially since I think Biden is poised to maintain or grow his support in most of the Pheonix and Tucson suburbs.

Similar situation in GA; where does this 6% swing right come from? I think it's unlikely metro Atlanta which is almost half the state swings right yet alone 6% to the right. He's really going to have to get some massive swings out of rural GA that I just don't buy are possible given Rs already get 80-90% of the white vote in many places and Southern Blacks are some of the most loyal to Dems. I think a lot of Trump's strong margins in GA polling comes from polls showing Biden only getting 60% of the black vote when that is unrealistically low in any circumstance. Blacks are ~30% of the GA electorate in a normal election so polls being off by >40 point margins with black voters could have pretty large impacts on the topline, even if there are other smaller polling errors that work in Biden's favor.\

The only recent elections we have with Rs winning GA by >5% margin are from Republicans who ran on being at least somewhat anti-Trump and gained back a lot of support in the Atlanta suburbs. Trump is not going to be doing that.

The shift map below (2020 Pres --> 2022 Sen) is a leftwards shift of the state. Metro Atlanta is really a beast, and even pretty modest leftwards shifts can be hard to offset.



The other states seem more reasonable. Nevada has factors that make me see larger swings more possible there. MI/WI/PA are pretty close to 2016/2020 results and within the MOE. NC's margin is perahps a bit too much for Trump but he already won the state in 2020.

Your conclusion is somewhat tautological. If you don't permit Trump to make gains in majority Black areas of Atlanta, then of course you find him not being able to gain 6 pts from 2020.

The polling average is predicated on huge Trump gains among Black voters. A supermajority Black county like Clayton County will be shifting 10+ points to the right, and accompanying Black swings will bring Fulton, Cobb, Gwinnett, and the Southern Atlanta suburbs right. The latter might still shift left if there's enough demographic change though. In 2020, Biden only lost marginal ground with Atlanta Black voters, while White voters zoomed left. If Biden is now losing significant ground with Black voters, then the Atlanta trends will stop. There was no counterbalance in 2020.

If there's big Trump gains among Black voters, Atlanta will not be trending left. If you don't think any Atlanta counties will have Trump gains, then Black voters are not shifting right.