Jon Ralston on Nevada

[Matty]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1790055858757337590

[Steve from Lambeth]

nevada is lost for Biden.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I think Ralston makes some good points; the poll's results are unlikely in magnitude, but could still suggests some concerns for Biden. I personally believe as of today NV is the only flip from 2020 Pres. Literally the case in my 2024 Prediction youtube video linked below for proof.

Demographically, Nevada is a state where Democrats should be concerned based on what recent polls, election results, and anecdotes suggests. It has low college attainment, over 60% non-white, and generally lacks pockets of high turnout white liberals that help provide Democrats solid floors in the other swing states. Also culturally the state seems like a bad fit for Biden, especially in the Vegas area.

Nevada was also the only one of the main swing states to swing right from 2016-->2020 Pres, and was also I'd argue the state where Democrats had the worst midterm losing the Governorship, barely squeaking by in the Senate race, and so on.

With that being said, Biden and Dems certainly aren't doomed in the state. The last time the state went R Presidentially was in 2004, Dems still won a few statewide races in 2022, and generally did fine at the Congressional and State Legislative levels. 2 wild cards that make Nevada tricky to predict is that despite all the investment it receives from being a swing state, it's still a relatively low turnout state, and it also has a highly transient population. This means there can be pretty significant variations in the Nevada electorate between cycles that are just tricky to account for and could work in either side's favor depending on the circumstances.

Given how Nevada's a relatively cheap state to invest in, especially for Democrats who's voters are extremely concentrated, money should continued to be invested here in the end.

[wbrocks67]

You missed the rest

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1790141904681935147

[Progressive Pessimist]

I trust Ralston, but more so when election day draws closer. He usually calls the winners based on the early votes. And even then, he was finally wrong in 2022 about Lee losing.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/13/us/politics/biden-trump-battleground-poll.html

"Results are among registered voters. Respondents who said they didn't know who they would vote for or who declined to say are not included."

The NYT absolutely wants a horserace, and likely a Trump win, and their coverage will be designed to produce that result, or at least that impression among their audience.

Obviously these numbers (if they are remotely accurate) are not good news for Biden (or the United States). Biden is not a popular President. (No matter that I think he should be.) But I certainly don't think they spell certain doom for Biden in Nevada.

The same is true here that is true of all modern polling. When it comes to polling, all likely Trump-voters will unreservedly support Trump and denounce Biden. Many likely Biden voters will be critical of Biden. If he wins (as I hope he will) Biden is going to win undecided voters overwhelmingly.

[GoTfan]

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/13/us/politics/biden-trump-battleground-poll.html

"Results are among registered voters. Respondents who said they didn't know who they would vote for or who declined to say are not included."

The NYT absolutely wants a horserace, and likely a Trump win, and their coverage will be designed to produce that result, or at least that impression among their audience.

Obviously these numbers (if they are remotely accurate) are not good news for Biden (or the United States). Biden is not a popular President. (No matter that I think he should be.) But I certainly don't think they spell certain doom for Biden in Nevada.

The same is true here that is true of all modern polling. When it comes to polling, all likely Trump-voters will unreservedly support Trump and denounce Biden. Many likely Biden voters will be critical of Biden. If he wins (as I hope he will) Biden is going to win undecided voters overwhelmingly.

I tend to lean in the opposite direction because negativism and grievance sells.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

I'm still weirdly confident about Biden's chances in Nevada, just like I had predicted Catherine Cortez Masto would win all along in 2022.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

You missed the rest

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1790141904681935147

The regional splits are not surprising, and in fact almost tautological, given the statewide number.
The statewide result is a 15-point swing from 2020.  And Trump’s vote was already pretty maxed out in much of rural Nevada, so almost all of any swing is certainly going to come from Clark and Washoe.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Junk poll

[Dan the Roman]

Doesn't Nevada have "None of these candidates" as a ballot option?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We will win NV

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

Doesn't Nevada have "None of these candidates" as a ballot option?

Yes, they do

[Schiff for Senate]

Doesn't Nevada have "None of these candidates" as a ballot option?

This could lwk be an underrated factor in the race...tbh I didn't realize that NOTA was an option at the presidential level, but if it is, I could actually see a decent number of usual Democrats putting that option up.

I think NV could certainly flip this year, but even if it does, it'll be close. The margin will not be anywhere near 13 points or even half of that. Trump+3 is on the bullish end of the spectrum of possibilities; I wouldn't expect him to do any better than that barring unforeseen circumstances that result in a red wave.

[Dan the Roman]

Doesn't Nevada have "None of these candidates" as a ballot option?

This could lwk be an underrated factor in the race...tbh I didn't realize that NOTA was an option at the presidential level, but if it is, I could actually see a decent number of usual Democrats putting that option up.

I think NV could certainly flip this year, but even if it does, it'll be close. The margin will not be anywhere near 13 points or even half of that. Trump+3 is on the bullish end of the spectrum of possibilities; I wouldn't expect him to do any better than that barring unforeseen circumstances that result in a red wave.

It definitely was an option in 2020. A bit surprised it only received 1%. I could see it getting 2.5% this year.