Primaries to watch Tuesday (5/14/24)- Maryland, Nebraska, West Virginia

[Left Wing]

Identity politics pushing milquetoast centrists to the top again. Awful.

[Minnesota Mike]

I am perfectly fine Senator Alsobrooks but the only drawback to her winning is Democrats will have to invest in her campaign. So be it, put me down $20.

[Oryxslayer]

Logan, Mingo, y'all okay up there?

Blakenship is from there, owned a mine (which got people killed), and crushed there in past primaries albeit as a Republican. But the real answer is that region of south WV is ground zero for remaining legacy registered Democrats but actual Republicans.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Logan, Mingo, y'all okay up there?

It's just a protest vote.. although I wish the protest vote would not be for scum like Blankenship.

FYI I voted on the repub side for Justice.

[wbrocks67]

I am perfectly fine Senator Alsobrooks but the only drawback to her winning is Democrats will have to invest in her campaign. So be it, put me down $20.

Yeah I completely disagree. The Emerson poll (Emerson is still Emerson, but...) shows Hogan's novelty has already worn off. I imagine when partisanship kicks in, it won't be close at all. Hogan can barely scrape together 60% of his own party. People in MD may like him, but it seems they truly don't really care *that* much about him to vote for him in a senate race.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Identity politics pushing milquetoast centrists to the top again. Awful.

As opposed to aggressive centrist Trone, surely.

[wbrocks67]

AP has called for Alsobrooks btw

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trone didn't last it was that comment he made

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

There’s a good chance Hogan fails to crack 60% of the vote by the end of the night.

[wbrocks67]

I'm shocked Dunn appears to be tanking in MD-03; these resist lib candidates have all this cash, what are they doing with it??

[Oryxslayer]

I'm shocked Dunn appears to be tanking in MD-03; these resist lib candidates have all this cash, what are they doing with it??

He had all the Cash, and then AIPAC decided to create a second mountain to rival the first.

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1790561606885048455

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1790561606885048455

And a bunch of people on here seriously thought he’d be a strong candidate against Hogan lol.

[Spectator]

I'm shocked Dunn appears to be tanking in MD-03; these resist lib candidates have all this cash, what are they doing with it??

He had all the Cash, and then AIPAC decided to create a second mountain to rival the first.

Women are doing exceptionally well in Maryland’s primaries tonight. Underrated might be the fact that women are probably a sizable majority of the Democrat primary electorate.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

NC Auditor R: Boilek
WV Gov R: Morrisey
WV Auditor R: Hunt

Uncalled:

WV Sen D
WV AG D
WV-1 D
MD-3 D
MD-3 R
NE-3 D

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/DrewSav/status/1790565070725845036

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Alsobrooks won, Vogel (probably) lost, all is well

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

lol Trone is now losing Montgomery county.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Congratulations Senator Alsobrooks!

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1790568147398865337

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Vogel just tweeted that he conceded to Delaney in the MD06 Dem primary.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

WV Sen D: Elliott
MD-3 D: Elfreth
MD-3 R: Steinberger

Uncalled:

WV AG D
WV-1 D
NE-3 D

[kyc0705]

Whenever I check the results, Trone's vote share has dropped lower. It just gets funnier every time.

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1790561285144244515

[SaintStan86]

Looking at the Maryland results, this is starting to look somewhat like what I predicted for Maryland in my Ron DeSantis TL ("A Blank Canvas") I did not too long ago, particularly the congressional races in MD-02 and MD-03 where it's Johnny Olszewski versus Kim Klacik in the former and Sarah Elfreth on top in the latter. Except for sure the Democrats are certain to hold onto those seats unless Dems really get burnt fried crispy with whatever "October Surprise" comes about (especially if the result is unfavorable to the Dems, or a major economic setback like a default on the national debt is what the surprise is about).

It's also fair to say that the Millennial vote is indeed the "it vote" now, especially considering in MD-03 you had several state legislators running, duking it out and sacrificing what otherwise could have been safe legislative seats for the once-in-a-blue-moon chance to represent their area in Congress. And considering this and MD-02 are suburban bastions (in this case, suburbs of Baltimore), it doesn't shock me if the primary rationale for Elfreth being on top in her primary has to with undecided Dems settling on the candidate whose parents put her in pink Pampers as a baby - as blue and pink diapers were actually quite common when many of today's Millennials were babies themselves (I for one was in blue diapers as a baby!).

There are of course other factors as well, such as Elfreth being backed by a sizable number of Maryland Dem insiders as well as AIPAC and a splintered progressive vote, but the fact that Elfreth pulled ahead of Harry Dunn (whose primary M.O. going for him was J6, which one would think would have been a deciding factor in a Dem primary) is fairly remarkable. Dunn coming up short may also indicate that J6 isn't exactly the "silver bullet" some Dems were hoping in primaries, and certainly isn't the case for many Rs who broke into the Capitol on January 6th either - as merely earning Trump's endorsement likely was never predicated on whether or not you were a Capitol rioter, but rather a combination of legislative experience, a conservative voting record, and mere platitudes about being "madly in love" with Trump.

As for Larry Hogan, I wouldn't exactly say that not crossing 60 percent is a dealbreaker for him, especially since the DSCC will have to really pull out all the stops to get Alsobrooks elected. White college educated voters along the Acela corridor think quite similarly regardless of which party's colors they wear on Election Day, and there will certainly be plenty of Hogan voters who otherwise will be voting for Biden. The big losers will be those Democrats in states like Texas and Florida who now will have to plead their case for help from Washington or spend bigly on polling to justify the case that their races aren't "lost causes", as the Dems are already having to play catch-up given the GOP is all but guaranteed to win Manchin's seat the moment 7:30 p.m. approaches on November the 5th in West Virginia.