Primaries to watch Tuesday (5/14/24)- Maryland, Nebraska, West Virginia

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

Given Alsobrooks appears to now be up with most of the early vote in, I think she seems like the clear favorite likely given the e-day vote seems likely to be even better for her?

What's the theory on eday vote being better? (Not disagreeing just curious) In GOP primaries it is usually the Trumpier, has there been any thoughts o the type of Dem candidates.

[Oryxslayer]

Given Alsobrooks appears to now be up with most of the early vote in, I think she seems like the clear favorite likely given the e-day vote seems likely to be even better for her?

What's the theory on eday vote being better? (Not disagreeing just curious) In GOP primaries it is usually the Trumpier, has there been any thoughts o the type of Dem candidates.

In a state like MD it is the more African American of the piles. And the Ev is more likely to be politically engaged (DC) folks who are for Trone.

Trone won the overall mail thats currently counted (a smaller amount will be counted later) 55-42, and lost in-person EV 53-43. That should give you an idea of  the direction of travel.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Go Alsobrooks

[wbrocks67]

Given Alsobrooks appears to now be up with most of the early vote in, I think she seems like the clear favorite likely given the e-day vote seems likely to be even better for her?

What's the theory on eday vote being better? (Not disagreeing just curious) In GOP primaries it is usually the Trumpier, has there been any thoughts o the type of Dem candidates.

In a state like MD it is the more African American of the piles. And the Ev is more likely to be politically engaged (DC) folks who are for Trone.

Trone won the overall mail thats currently counted (a smaller amount will be counted later) 55-42, and lost in-person EV 53-43. That should give you an idea of  the direction of travel.

Alsobrooks has also gained a bit more momentum with ads and surrogates out for her in the past few weeks, much moreso than when ballots first went out too.

[Horus]

Unfortunately Elfreth is ahead early in the 3rd. On the plus side Joe Vogel, the student government guy, is losing badly in the 6th. Johnny O easily takes the 2nd of course.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Conserv really though they were gonna win with Hogan no

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1790544566866546853

Glad to see Evans, who was a convicted J6 offender, go down to defeat.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Given Alsobrooks appears to now be up with most of the early vote in, I think she seems like the clear favorite likely given the e-day vote seems likely to be even better for her?

What's the theory on eday vote being better? (Not disagreeing just curious) In GOP primaries it is usually the Trumpier, has there been any thoughts o the type of Dem candidates.

In a state like MD it is the more African American of the piles. And the Ev is more likely to be politically engaged (DC) folks who are for Trone.

Trone won the overall mail thats currently counted (a smaller amount will be counted later) 55-42, and lost in-person EV 53-43. That should give you an idea of  the direction of travel.

Alsobrooks has also gained a bit more momentum with ads and surrogates out for her in the past few weeks, much moreso than when ballots first went out too.

I've also read that Alsobrooks strategically saved her ad push for the end since she couldn't compete with Trone's infinite money supply for the whole campaign period.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Unfortunately Elfreth is ahead early in the 3rd. On the plus side Joe Vogel, the student government guy, is losing badly in the 6th. Johnny O easily takes the 2nd of course.

Given that Delaney is leading in the 6th, the odds are those two would have been near-identical in Congress. The left-wing candidates in that district are going nowhere.

Legacy voting continues to be strong.

[Oryxslayer]

Unfortunately Elfreth is ahead early in the 3rd. On the plus side Joe Vogel, the student government guy, is losing badly in the 6th. Johnny O easily takes the 2nd of course.

Currently 37% for Elfreth to 28% for Dunn in the 3rd, and 43% for Delaney and 23% for Vogel in the 6th.

Though like in the senate, this is basically entirely Mail and In-Person EV. So things can change.

In the 3rd, Elfreth won Mail 40% - 27.8%, and Early in Person 37% to 28%

In the 6th Delaney won Mail 44.1% - 19.4%, and Early In Person 43% - 23%

[xavier110]

Why would any D partisan want Alsobrooks to prevail? We are going to have to light millions on fire to defend the seat when Trone could light up his own cash.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1790544566866546853

Glad to see Evans, who was a convicted J6 offender, go down to defeat.

Moore technically got called by the AP before her in the open 2nd, so even if they lose the Gov Primary, the families influence still expands. If they do win the Gov race, the state might well their fief.

[henster]

Harry Dunn's performance is not good news for Eugene Vindman in VA-07 maybe? Both are resist ATM outsider candidates running against establishment elected pols in their districts.

[Tekken_Guy]

Why would any D partisan want Alsobrooks to prevail? We are going to have to light millions on fire to defend the seat when Trone could light up his own cash.

MD is not going to be competitive and Dems don’t need to spend a dime there.

[wbrocks67]

Why would any D partisan want Alsobrooks to prevail? We are going to have to light millions on fire to defend the seat when Trone could light up his own cash.

Because Trone is just a horrific candidate and is just trying to buy his way into the seat? He's already had numerous gaffes over the last few weeks and is just extremely tone-deaf. Alsobrooks actually feels like she's earned the seat and has worked hard.

Also, no, this seat is not going to cost Ds millions.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Harry Dunn's performance is not good news for Eugene Vindman in VA-07 maybe? Both are resist ATM outsider candidates running against establishment elected pols in their districts.

I suppose that’s one bright side.

[Oryxslayer]

Harry Dunn's performance is not good news for Eugene Vindman in VA-07 maybe? Both are resist ATM outsider candidates running against establishment elected pols in their districts.

The main difference is here Dunn's money got challenged by AIPAC whereas nobody else can rival Vindman's totals in VA.

Why would any D partisan want Alsobrooks to prevail? We are going to have to light millions on fire to defend the seat when Trone could light up his own cash.

Turn out people really dislike self-funders who think their money makes them superior to everyone else when it comes to the actual political process, idk. And given what the GOP side of the ballot is looking like, I rightly think people are realizing Hogan is getting pulled down by the same gravity as other past opposite-state governors who ran statewide federally.

[Minnesota Mike]

Given Alsobrooks appears to now be up with most of the early vote in, I think she seems like the clear favorite likely given the e-day vote seems likely to be even better for her?

Trone is the favorite IMHO. Alsobrooks won the early in person early vote but that's all in. Trone is winning the absentee vote and there is a lot of it still out and it's expected to be the biggest slice of the vote pie.

https://results.elections.maryland.gov/elections/2024/primary_results/gen_results_2024_2.html

[wbrocks67]

Given Alsobrooks appears to now be up with most of the early vote in, I think she seems like the clear favorite likely given the e-day vote seems likely to be even better for her?

Trone is the favorite IMHO. Alsobrooks won the early in person early vote but that's all in. Trone is winning the absentee vote and there is a lot of it still out and it's expected to be the biggest slice of the vote pie.

https://results.elections.maryland.gov/elections/2024/primary_results/gen_results_2024_2.html

Yes, and we're still waiting for basically all of e-day, where Alsobrooks appears to be doing even better than early vote in a lot of places so far. I also don't expect Trone to do as well in the late mail as he did in the early mail.

[henster]

It will come down to how much Alsobrooks is ahead before VBM is counted. I feel like 20K would be a solid buffer for her.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Man, Maryland is slow at counting votes.

Kind of surprised Dunn isn't running away with it in the 3rd, and it's close to callable for April Delaney in the 6th.

[Nyvin]

Given Alsobrooks appears to now be up with most of the early vote in, I think she seems like the clear favorite likely given the e-day vote seems likely to be even better for her?

Trone is the favorite IMHO. Alsobrooks won the early in person early vote but that's all in. Trone is winning the absentee vote and there is a lot of it still out and it's expected to be the biggest slice of the vote pie.

https://results.elections.maryland.gov/elections/2024/primary_results/gen_results_2024_2.html

Really?  I'm thinking Alsobrooks has the advantage with so much Prince George's still out and Trone barely ahead in other places like Baltimore County and Howard.

Prince George's is an electoral juggernaut in MD Dem primaries.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Maryland is the largest state to not have any women in its Congressional delegation. It could go up to as many as 3 this year if Alsobrooks, Elfreth, and Delaney are all elected.

[Oryxslayer]

Also, the Nebraska GOP radical's decision to endorse the challenger to all of their congressional incumbents seems to be doing damage. But without the more Trump-Friendly E-Day, we can't exactly say by how much.

[Oryxslayer]

Given Alsobrooks appears to now be up with most of the early vote in, I think she seems like the clear favorite likely given the e-day vote seems likely to be even better for her?

Trone is the favorite IMHO. Alsobrooks won the early in person early vote but that's all in. Trone is winning the absentee vote and there is a lot of it still out and it's expected to be the biggest slice of the vote pie.

https://results.elections.maryland.gov/elections/2024/primary_results/gen_results_2024_2.html

Really?  I'm thinking Alsobrooks has the advantage with so much Prince George's still out and Trone barely ahead in other places like Baltimore County and Howard.

Prince George's is an electoral juggernaut in MD Dem primaries.

E-Day is going to be Alsbrook's best.

She's currently winning the 40K counted for E-Day 57.4% to 38%. That's far larger than either candidates result from Mail or In Person, see above for the exact percentages.

That's why she's slowly going with precincts. And it's by far the largest, compared to the partial remaining mail vote. Some has already been counted.