Thought: Trump's trials and scandals don't hurt him more because they don't affect daily lives

[President Johnson]

I thought about this for a while. First off, I'm neither saying the trials don't hurt him at all, nor that there's a hardcore base that doesn't care regardless of what outlandish stuff Trump says or does.

However, I usually would assume that the trials and all the scandals should hurt Trump much more with anyone not his cult, which is no more than 35-40% of the electorate. But he's not at that rock bottom in the polls and neither was he in 2020. He wouldn't even get that low in defeat against Biden in November. That only leaves me with the conclusion the remaining votes he gets or may get just don't care because it doesn't affect their daily lives. Most of them I guess are "normies" who don't care much about politics other than their pocketbooks, and the cost of living is still a major issue for them (and is to a wide extent outside Biden's influence). They also don't read all the nonsense he posts on his Truth Social or listen into his unhinged rallies. Additionally, folks just have gotten numb to Trump's nonsense after nine years of this s-show and even the most depraved things aren't worth much outrage anymore. Especially since the standard for him as been extremely low to begin with. Furthermore, lots of average folks believe all politicians are corrupt liars anyway, so Trump or not Trump doesn't seem to make a difference (heck, he even said that he was defrauding the public by not paying taxes and the "career politicians" wrote the lousy tax codes).

At this point, and the media backs this narrative, several people just seem to think the economy/cost of living was better under Trump before the pandemic, which is why Biden is struggling regardless of the actual economic data showing the US economy is good shape. Of course, that's unfair because Trump inherited much from Obama and failed the biggest test of his administration. People seems to have forgotten Covid or at least don't blame Trump for it (additionally some may feel he wasn't totally wrong because Democrats in their view overreached with restrictions).

Does that explain why this race is still competitive and/or Trump even slightly favored according to polling? I think this is more difficult to understand for guys on a forum like this, who daily follow Trump's scandals and trials unlike average folks. Could also be that the average Atlas user is well educated and therefore has fewer economic struggles than the Average Joe who works as a bus driver or at Walmart.

Thoughts?

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Apparently Trump +2 with full field??

https://twitter.com/dcg1114/status/1790022216161038564

Those make more sense and honestly I’m starting to get muted to this whole polling cycle. One thing people need to accept is that this is gonna be a close election and that neither candidate is a shoe in. Everyone wants a concrete answer as to who is gonna win, I do too, but the truth is we don’t have that and probably won’t until election night.

As a great election analyst Adam Carlson says, embrace patience and uncertainty.

Read this I think people just need to accept it’s gonna be a competitive election regardless. Next week we’ll all be talking about a good high quality poll for Biden. Bookmark it. Just be grateful he doesn’t seem as hopeless (he never was) as he did in late 2023.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

The trial is hurting him because it is preventing him from campaigning as much. What actually goes on in the trial doesn’t really matter, and it could actually help Trump by nullifying Biden’s democracy argument.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Apparently Trump +2 with full field??

https://twitter.com/dcg1114/status/1790022216161038564

Those make more sense and honestly I’m starting to get muted to this whole polling cycle. One thing people need to accept is that this is gonna be a close election and that neither candidate is a shoe in. Everyone wants a concrete answer as to who is gonna win, I do too, but the truth is we don’t have that and probably won’t until election night.

As a great election analyst Adam Carlson says, embrace patience and uncertainty.

Read this I think people just need to accept it’s gonna be a competitive election regardless. Next week we’ll all be talking about a good high quality poll for Biden. Bookmark it. Just be grateful he doesn’t seem as hopeless (he never was) as he did in late 2023.

The NYT polls are basically unchanged from November. Pennsylvania moved 2 towards Biden and Michigan moved 2 towards Trump in RV, and Trump gained in all sunbelt states. Also Biden’s approval has been dead stagnant for half a year.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Biden is actually polling better than almost any Western Leader right now , so the question should be why is Trump not polling better than he is. The reason is because Trump's election denialism and scandals do hurt him but its just that general dissatisfaction is so high its not enough to defeat him currently.

[Beet]

Essentially it comes down to this. Trump should have been prosecuted when he was in office, since he probably didn't do collusion, but he absolutely did do obstruction of justice. Mueller coming out and saying that he was going to accept internal OLC policy within the DOJ that the president has effective criminal immunity was devastating to the rule of law. Keep in mind that the OLC is controlled by the president and its internal policy is not law. This was in 2019.

For him to suddenly get 80 or 90 charges thrown at him once he's in opposition and running for president means little. It is well known that the establishment - political, media, and otherwise, are against him. There is a reason why people used to scoff whenever opposition politicians were subject to criminal charges in developing countries with weak traditions of democratic rule. The use of State Power to criminalize the democratic opposition is a classic strategy of autocracy. Even if Trump is truly guilty, the fact that he was only prosecuted once he was out of office and would be able to pardon himself if he gets back in robs the proceedings of all meaning. If anything, it creates a perverse incentive for men to try and get into (and stay in) office by extralegal means, since as long as they are in office, they are immune, but as soon as they step down, they could be criminals.

In short, presidential power has already won; if Trump is convicted, it will be because he does not hold the Office. If he is not, then he got away with crimes committed while in Office. In both cases, the principle of rule of law over man, which was the most important issue among all of Trump's legal issues, has already been decided in favor of man, as long as that man is the President.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Evidently, yes. Trump winning can only happen because Americans are being as self-interested as he is. I think it speaks to the education divide-the lesser educated are more likely to prioritize their personal situation and blame the incumbent President; better educated voters recognize the danger of Trump and his party, no matter how they personally feel about the economy. They're probably less likely to blame Biden too, and better maintain memories of Trump's disastrous four years.

[SnowLabrador]

This is exactly it.

[Sir Mohamed]

Evidently, yes. Trump winning can only happen because Americans are being as self-interested as he is. I think it speaks to the education divide-the lesser educated are more likely to prioritize their personal situation and blame the incumbent President; better educated voters recognize the danger of Trump and his party, no matter how they personally feel about the economy. They're probably less likely to blame Biden too, and better maintain memories of Trump's disastrous four years.

Yup, though though the initial narrative of this mindset is false. It assumes that people would be better off financially under Trump. A theory that doesn't pass the fact check, but it's hard to argue against such perceptions with scientific data or quotes from economists. The truth is that Biden was forced deal with external economic conditions that no POTUS has control of and Trump would have been confronted with as well. There's no evidence prices go back to 2019 levels if he's elected back into office.

Otherwise, it pretty much nails it that his insane behavior has been normalized over the years and/or people simply grew numb to the scandals. Some believe he correctly addressed a number of issues like immigration, distrust in institutions and that "politicians are corrupt", even though he never came up with real solutions.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Evidently, yes. Trump winning can only happen because Americans are being as self-interested as he is. I think it speaks to the education divide-the lesser educated are more likely to prioritize their personal situation and blame the incumbent President; better educated voters recognize the danger of Trump and his party, no matter how they personally feel about the economy. They're probably less likely to blame Biden too, and better maintain memories of Trump's disastrous four years.

Yup, though though the initial narrative of this mindset is false. It assumes that people would be better off financially under Trump. A theory that doesn't pass the fact check, but it's hard to argue against such perceptions with scientific data or quotes from economists. The truth is that Biden was forced deal with external economic conditions that no POTUS has control of and Trump would have been confronted with as well. There's no evidence prices go back to 2019 levels if he's elected back into office.

Otherwise, it pretty much nails it that his insane behavior has been normalized over the years and/or people simply grew numb to the scandals. Some believe he correctly addressed a number of issues like immigration, distrust in institutions and that "politicians are corrupt", even though he never came up with real solutions.

It's so depressing.

[7,052,770]

Had Trump succeeded in overthrowing the government, it would have affected all of our daily lives. The frustrating thing is that tens of millions of Americans just don't care.

[President Johnson]

Biden is actually polling better than almost any Western Leader right now , so the question should be why is Trump not polling better than he is. The reason is because Trump's election denialism and scandals do hurt him but its just that general dissatisfaction is so high its not enough to defeat him currently.

I think the partisan polarization and division in the US basically prevent any president from polling lower than 33-34% regardless of how lousy their job performance is. Even Trump never came close to 20s territory on his worst day.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lol I think it has to do with inflation than the Trials, voters are naturally mad at prices but the prices are better than 22

That's why it's a 303 map except for WI S we did fine in 22 with 5/8 percent inflation

If it wasn't for IAN which helped Rs in NY and WI S we would of had the Filibuster proof Trifecta

[Progressive Pessimist]

I guess it would help if the trial were televised.

Then Trump's gimps wouldn't have their spin messaging go as uncountered as it is.

[PeteB]

I thought about this for a while. First off, I'm neither saying the trials don't hurt him at all, nor that there's a hardcore base that doesn't care regardless of what outlandish stuff Trump says or does.

However, I usually would assume that the trials and all the scandals should hurt Trump much more with anyone not his cult, which is no more than 35-40% of the electorate. But he's not at that rock bottom in the polls and neither was he in 2020. He wouldn't even get that low in defeat against Biden in November. That only leaves me with the conclusion the remaining votes he gets or may get just don't care because it doesn't affect their daily lives. Most of them I guess are "normies" who don't care much about politics other than their pocketbooks, and the cost of living is still a major issue for them (and is to a wide extent outside Biden's influence). They also don't read all the nonsense he posts on his Truth Social or listen into his unhinged rallies. Additionally, folks just have gotten numb to Trump's nonsense after nine years of this s-show and even the most depraved things aren't worth much outrage anymore. Especially since the standard for him as been extremely low to begin with. Furthermore, lots of average folks believe all politicians are corrupt liars anyway, so Trump or not Trump doesn't seem to make a difference (heck, he even said that he was defrauding the public by not paying taxes and the "career politicians" wrote the lousy tax codes).

At this point, and the media backs this narrative, several people just seem to think the economy/cost of living was better under Trump before the pandemic, which is why Biden is struggling regardless of the actual economic data showing the US economy is good shape. Of course, that's unfair because Trump inherited much from Obama and failed the biggest test of his administration. People seems to have forgotten Covid or at least don't blame Trump for it (additionally some may feel he wasn't totally wrong because Democrats in their view overreached with restrictions).

Does that explain why this race is still competitive and/or Trump even slightly favored according to polling? I think this is more difficult to understand for guys on a forum like this, who daily follow Trump's scandals and trials unlike average folks. Could also be that the average Atlas user is well educated and therefore has fewer economic struggles than the Average Joe who works as a bus driver or at Walmart.

Thoughts?

Interesting thought and certainly one supported by current polls.  However, I do think that the trials hurt him twofold.  First of all, he is not out there enough, firing up the MAGA crowd - they may be loyal but, if not fired up enough, they may well not vote in sufficient numbers.  Perhaps more importantly, the trial revelations are hitting swing independent voters who are economically better off and who would normally vote Republican but do care about the environment they live in (think non-Dem Haley primary voters), so it is having some effect, especially in swing states.

The six million dollar question is - will it be enough.  I personally think it will, but only time will tell.