PA-SEN: NYT/Siena Casey +5

[Podgy the Bear]

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/13/us/politics/democrats-senate-battleground-poll.html

[wbrocks67]

Casey fav: 51/33 (+18)
McCormick fav: 45/25 (+20)

Fetterman fav: 49/41 (+8)
Shapiro approval: 59/24 (+35)

In LV, Casey down to +2, 46-44. I would imagine though that's due to the Hispanic sample, which is very low, and has McCormick winning by by 27% (50-23) lol

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

McCormick seems to be running a better campaign than Hovde. Stays at Lean D, but might be closer to Tilt than likely. This seems to be getting closer than WI.

[SnowLabrador]

Biden will drag Casey under the line.

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

Casey fav: 51/33 (+18)
McCormick fav: 45/25 (+20)

Fetterman fav: 49/41 (+8)
Shapiro approval: 59/24 (+35)

In LV, Casey down to +2, 46-44. I would imagine though that's due to the Hispanic sample, which is very low, and has McCormick winning by by 27% (50-23) lol

If Dave McCormick has a better favorability than Bob Casey, then I'm the pope.

[wbrocks67]

Casey fav: 51/33 (+18)
McCormick fav: 45/25 (+20)

Fetterman fav: 49/41 (+8)
Shapiro approval: 59/24 (+35)

In LV, Casey down to +2, 46-44. I would imagine though that's due to the Hispanic sample, which is very low, and has McCormick winning by by 27% (50-23) lol

If Dave McCormick has a better favorability than Bob Casey, then I'm the pope.

Yeah... those #s feel very Emerson-ish. 70% of PA does not have an opinion on McCormick lol

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

McCormick is a stronger candidate than I thought. Casey will likely still win with 51% favorables, but maybe McCormick could have won vs Fetterman.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

McCormick is a stronger candidate than I thought. Casey will likely still win with 51% favorables, but maybe McCormick could have won vs Fetterman.

If he couldn’t beat Oz in the primary, I doubt it.

[MillennialModerate]

Biden will drag Casey under the line.

I thought I was pessimistic lol (although to be fair even a realist is considered “oMg a DoOmEr” on this board)

Anyway - to me it’s a turnout thing. If a lot of independents turn out and Dems don’t stay home - I think you can see a lot of ticket splitting. If Trumps win is via Dems staying home instead of independents crossing over to him - then Casey will get pulled under. Otherwise he should survive

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

Biden will drag Casey under the line.

I thought I was pessimistic lol (although to be fair even a realist is considered “oMg a DoOmEr” on this board)

Anyway - to me it’s a turnout thing. If a lot of independents turn out and Dems don’t stay home - I think you can see a lot of ticket splitting. If Trumps win is via Dems staying home instead of independents crossing over to him - then Casey will get pulled under. Otherwise he should survive

My man, you thought that Bolduc was going to win New Hampshire.

There is 0% chance that Casey loses this race.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

McCormick is running a good campaign but that can only get you so far when you are as out of touch with the common man as he is.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Safe D -> Safe D

[Ancestral Republican]

Biden will drag Casey under the line.

Seek help.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

McCormick is running a good campaign but that can only get you so far when you are as out of touch with the common man as he is.

No, he isn’t; his campaign has been a mess

[ctherainbow]

I continue to be shocked by the number of people who think Bob Casey is actually vulnerable.  Worry about the Michigan Senate seat; Casey will be fine.  He’s recently come out with excellent TV ads focusing on his votes to expand semiconductor production in the US and take jobs back from China, has been barnstorming the rural counties to stanch the bleeding there, and he’s a Scranton candidate who has three other statewide PA candidates (from Pittsburgh, the Capitol area, and Philadelphia, pretty much a perfect geographic spread for the Dem coalition here) stumping for him as well.

He may not win by a huge margin, but he’ll win.

[Spectator]

I continue to be shocked by the number of people who think Bob Casey is actually vulnerable.  Worry about the Michigan Senate seat; Casey will be fine.  He’s recently come out with excellent TV ads focusing on his votes to expand semiconductor production in the US and take jobs back from China, has been barnstorming the rural counties to stanch the bleeding there, and he’s a Scranton candidate who has three other statewide PA candidates (from Pittsburgh, the Capitol area, and Philadelphia, pretty much a perfect geographic spread for the Dem coalition here) stumping for him as well.

He may not win by a huge margin, but he’ll win.

Yeah, I agree that Michigan is the most vulnerable seat after the WV/MT/OH trio. I could’ve been convinced it was Nevada, but for whatever odd reason, Rosen seems to be polling extremely well compared to Biden there. That one is the most puzzling to me.

[Tekken_Guy]

I continue to be shocked by the number of people who think Bob Casey is actually vulnerable.  Worry about the Michigan Senate seat; Casey will be fine.  He’s recently come out with excellent TV ads focusing on his votes to expand semiconductor production in the US and take jobs back from China, has been barnstorming the rural counties to stanch the bleeding there, and he’s a Scranton candidate who has three other statewide PA candidates (from Pittsburgh, the Capitol area, and Philadelphia, pretty much a perfect geographic spread for the Dem coalition here) stumping for him as well.

He may not win by a huge margin, but he’ll win.

Yeah, I agree that Michigan is the most vulnerable seat after the WV/MT/OH trio. I could’ve been convinced it was Nevada, but for whatever odd reason, Rosen seems to be polling extremely well compared to Biden there. That one is the most puzzling to me.

I think Trump needs to win Michigan by quite a few points to pull Rogers ahead though and I don’t see that.

[Spectator]

I continue to be shocked by the number of people who think Bob Casey is actually vulnerable.  Worry about the Michigan Senate seat; Casey will be fine.  He’s recently come out with excellent TV ads focusing on his votes to expand semiconductor production in the US and take jobs back from China, has been barnstorming the rural counties to stanch the bleeding there, and he’s a Scranton candidate who has three other statewide PA candidates (from Pittsburgh, the Capitol area, and Philadelphia, pretty much a perfect geographic spread for the Dem coalition here) stumping for him as well.

He may not win by a huge margin, but he’ll win.

Yeah, I agree that Michigan is the most vulnerable seat after the WV/MT/OH trio. I could’ve been convinced it was Nevada, but for whatever odd reason, Rosen seems to be polling extremely well compared to Biden there. That one is the most puzzling to me.

I think Trump needs to win Michigan by quite a few points to pull Rogers ahead though and I don’t see that.

Idk. Michigan is the state where the Dem Senate nominee seems to be running the least amount ahead of Biden in polling. The others are all generally pretty substantial.

[DaleCooper]

I continue to be shocked by the number of people who think Bob Casey is actually vulnerable.  Worry about the Michigan Senate seat; Casey will be fine.  He’s recently come out with excellent TV ads focusing on his votes to expand semiconductor production in the US and take jobs back from China, has been barnstorming the rural counties to stanch the bleeding there, and he’s a Scranton candidate who has three other statewide PA candidates (from Pittsburgh, the Capitol area, and Philadelphia, pretty much a perfect geographic spread for the Dem coalition here) stumping for him as well.

He may not win by a huge margin, but he’ll win.

Yeah, I agree that Michigan is the most vulnerable seat after the WV/MT/OH trio. I could’ve been convinced it was Nevada, but for whatever odd reason, Rosen seems to be polling extremely well compared to Biden there. That one is the most puzzling to me.

I think Trump needs to win Michigan by quite a few points to pull Rogers ahead though and I don’t see that.

Idk. Michigan is the state where the Dem Senate nominee seems to be running the least amount ahead of Biden in polling. The others are all generally pretty substantial.

It must be because it's an open seat. I think it's true that outside of a horrible candidate like Rick Santorum, or hopelessly polarized states like Alabama, incumbency is still a huge advantage. Brown and Tester will test this, but if they win or barely lose then clearly incumbency still means the world in these kind of elections.

[Spectator]

I continue to be shocked by the number of people who think Bob Casey is actually vulnerable.  Worry about the Michigan Senate seat; Casey will be fine.  He’s recently come out with excellent TV ads focusing on his votes to expand semiconductor production in the US and take jobs back from China, has been barnstorming the rural counties to stanch the bleeding there, and he’s a Scranton candidate who has three other statewide PA candidates (from Pittsburgh, the Capitol area, and Philadelphia, pretty much a perfect geographic spread for the Dem coalition here) stumping for him as well.

He may not win by a huge margin, but he’ll win.

Yeah, I agree that Michigan is the most vulnerable seat after the WV/MT/OH trio. I could’ve been convinced it was Nevada, but for whatever odd reason, Rosen seems to be polling extremely well compared to Biden there. That one is the most puzzling to me.

I think Trump needs to win Michigan by quite a few points to pull Rogers ahead though and I don’t see that.

Idk. Michigan is the state where the Dem Senate nominee seems to be running the least amount ahead of Biden in polling. The others are all generally pretty substantial.

It must be because it's an open seat. I think it's true that outside of a horrible candidate like Rick Santorum, or hopelessly polarized states like Alabama, incumbency is still a huge advantage. Brown and Tester will test this, but if they win or barely lose then clearly incumbency still means the world in these kind of elections.

Funny enough, Doug Jones' doomed 2020 campaign is still a good example of the power of incumbency. Even in extremely polarized Alabama, he still outran Biden by 5%. That would be enough for basically all incumbent Democrats aside from Tester and Brown to hold on. And Tester and Brown have shown hints that they might be able to overperform Biden by the double digits needed. It just remains to be seen if that will hold up.

As for the open seats, I think you're correct that that is why Slotkin is only narrowly outperforming Biden. I think most polls only have her doing about 2-3 points better than Biden, which still would probably be enough to survive, but obviously well within the margin of error, and Rogers could be the beneficiary of a polling miss. As for the other open-seat race in Arizona, I think Gallego dramatically outperforming Biden by the 10+ points that most polls seem to show kind of makes sense... He is a hispanic Marine, which is basically the dream profile that most Democratic strategists would create in a simulated incubator. And he's running against Kari Lake who somehow makes Trump look more moderate and reasonable by comparison. I think that divergence makes a lot of sense.

[Sir Mohamed]

The margin sounds reasonable.

Question is by how much does Casey have to win to make sure Biden gets over the top as well? 5 pts. seems to be enough imho. I don't believe there will be that much ticket splitting outside states like MT and OH. Many voters polled who support downballot Dems are left-leaning and will almost certainly come home in November. Even with some reservatations over Biden. A vote is a vote, and they count equally. No matter how fired up MAGA is.

[wbrocks67]

Honestly, Casey being only +2 compared to most other polls we've gotten makes me continue to think that the Siena state polling is underrating Dems chances quite a lot (right now)

[Spectator]

The margin sounds reasonable.

Question is by how much does Casey have to win to make sure Biden gets over the top as well? 5 pts. seems to be enough imho. I don't believe there will be that much ticket splitting outside states like MT and OH. Many voters polled who support downballot Dems are left-leaning and will almost certainly come home in November. Even with some reservatations over Biden. A vote is a vote, and they count equally. No matter how fired up MAGA is.

Reverse coattails isn't a thing. If that was the case, Obama would have won Missouri in 2012 given the Dem landslides in the governor and Senate races.

[Sir Mohamed]

Honestly, Casey being only +2 compared to most other polls we've gotten makes me continue to think that the Siena state polling is underrating Dems chances quite a lot (right now)

What final result do you expect here? I'd say Casey wins 51-46%. So, similar to 2022.

[Sir Mohamed]

The margin sounds reasonable.

Question is by how much does Casey have to win to make sure Biden gets over the top as well? 5 pts. seems to be enough imho. I don't believe there will be that much ticket splitting outside states like MT and OH. Many voters polled who support downballot Dems are left-leaning and will almost certainly come home in November. Even with some reservatations over Biden. A vote is a vote, and they count equally. No matter how fired up MAGA is.

Reverse coattails isn't a thing. If that was the case, Obama would have won Missouri in 2012 given the Dem landslides in the governor and Senate races.

Well, that was a different state and a totally different time in politics. In 2020, most downballot Dems even finished slightly behind Biden.