PA-SEN: NYT/Siena Casey +5

[Podgy the Bear]

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/13/us/politics/democrats-senate-battleground-poll.html

[wbrocks67]

Casey fav: 51/33 (+18)
McCormick fav: 45/25 (+20)

Fetterman fav: 49/41 (+8)
Shapiro approval: 59/24 (+35)

In LV, Casey down to +2, 46-44. I would imagine though that's due to the Hispanic sample, which is very low, and has McCormick winning by by 27% (50-23) lol

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

McCormick seems to be running a better campaign than Hovde. Stays at Lean D, but might be closer to Tilt than likely. This seems to be getting closer than WI.

[SnowLabrador]

Biden will drag Casey under the line.

[Pheurton Skeurto]

Casey fav: 51/33 (+18)
McCormick fav: 45/25 (+20)

Fetterman fav: 49/41 (+8)
Shapiro approval: 59/24 (+35)

In LV, Casey down to +2, 46-44. I would imagine though that's due to the Hispanic sample, which is very low, and has McCormick winning by by 27% (50-23) lol

If Dave McCormick has a better favorability than Bob Casey, then I'm the pope.

[wbrocks67]

Casey fav: 51/33 (+18)
McCormick fav: 45/25 (+20)

Fetterman fav: 49/41 (+8)
Shapiro approval: 59/24 (+35)

In LV, Casey down to +2, 46-44. I would imagine though that's due to the Hispanic sample, which is very low, and has McCormick winning by by 27% (50-23) lol

If Dave McCormick has a better favorability than Bob Casey, then I'm the pope.

Yeah... those #s feel very Emerson-ish. 70% of PA does not have an opinion on McCormick lol

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

McCormick is a stronger candidate than I thought. Casey will likely still win with 51% favorables, but maybe McCormick could have won vs Fetterman.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

McCormick is a stronger candidate than I thought. Casey will likely still win with 51% favorables, but maybe McCormick could have won vs Fetterman.

If he couldn’t beat Oz in the primary, I doubt it.

[MillennialModerate]

Biden will drag Casey under the line.

I thought I was pessimistic lol (although to be fair even a realist is considered “oMg a DoOmEr” on this board)

Anyway - to me it’s a turnout thing. If a lot of independents turn out and Dems don’t stay home - I think you can see a lot of ticket splitting. If Trumps win is via Dems staying home instead of independents crossing over to him - then Casey will get pulled under. Otherwise he should survive

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

Biden will drag Casey under the line.

I thought I was pessimistic lol (although to be fair even a realist is considered “oMg a DoOmEr” on this board)

Anyway - to me it’s a turnout thing. If a lot of independents turn out and Dems don’t stay home - I think you can see a lot of ticket splitting. If Trumps win is via Dems staying home instead of independents crossing over to him - then Casey will get pulled under. Otherwise he should survive

My man, you thought that Bolduc was going to win New Hampshire.

There is 0% chance that Casey loses this race.