NYT/Siena: PA--Trump +3, WI-Biden +2, MI-Trump +7, GA-Trump +10, NV-Trump +12, AZ-Trump +7

[Agafin]

It should surprise absolutely no one that Nate confirms:

Among 18-29 year olds (total) in these polls:

-Biden is up 56-33 among 2022 midterm voters
-Trump is up 15 with everyone else

https://x.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1790416126255546811

Democrats are now more popular with high propensity voters, exhibit #9574

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It should surprise absolutely no one that Nate confirms:

Among 18-29 year olds (total) in these polls:

-Biden is up 56-33 among 2022 midterm voters
-Trump is up 15 with everyone else

https://x.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1790416126255546811

Democrats are now more popular with high propensity voters, exhibit #9574

That looks likely, yeah.

[Senator Spark]

Ah, the doom and gloom. The only polls that matter are the exit polls on Election Day.

That being said, these numbers are atrocious for Biden. As a Gen Z voter myself, I am disenchanted with the state of the union right now. Still, I think that Biden has a fighting chance to recover in these 6 months if he plays his cards right. So far the 2020 Biden coalition is fractured, and previous elections have shown that polls consistently underestimate Trump. I think we will see Biden get a ton of soft support back after the conventions once the reality of the rematch sets in. A conviction of Trump will only complicate things for him further and should even things up by Election Day.

Biden needs to rethink his electoral strategy. Gains with White voters alone won’t save him, he needs to show he’s doing something on the economy and trying to make peace abroad. Going all in on WI/PA/MI and adding NC should be the strategy. Play defense in those states as well as the 2016 states. The others are lost.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ah, the doom and gloom. The only polls that matter are the exit polls on Election Day.

That being said, these numbers are atrocious for Biden. As a Gen Z voter myself, I am disenchanted with the state of the union right now. Still, I think that Biden has a fighting chance to recover in these 6 months if he plays his cards right. So far the 2020 Biden coalition is fractured, and previous elections have shown that polls consistently underestimate Trump. I think we will see Biden get a ton of soft support back after the conventions once the reality of the rematch sets in. A conviction of Trump will only complicate things for him further and should even things up by Election Day.

Biden needs to rethink his electoral strategy. Gains with White voters alone won’t save him, he needs to show he’s doing something on the economy and trying to make peace abroad. Going all in on WI/PA/MI and adding NC should be the strategy. Play defense in those states as well as the 2016 states. The others are lost.

Trump will never win NV by 12