Trump holds largest rally since FDR — NJ in play? (LOL, no it wasn't)

[Roll Roons]

No, but if Trump gets 2017 Gov level numbers in south Jersey he could keep the state around 6-9%.

You mean 2021?

Yes, my bad! I think if Trump really has a multiracial working class coalition he can win Cumberland, Atlantic and Gloucester.

I wonder if he could also make gains in the shore area, it’s basically NJ’s Long Island.

Ocean is already super red and I imagine he'll get even crazier margins from Orthodox Jews.

[Devils30]

No, but if Trump gets 2017 Gov level numbers in south Jersey he could keep the state around 6-9%.

You mean 2021?

Yes, my bad! I think if Trump really has a multiracial working class coalition he can win Cumberland, Atlantic and Gloucester.

I wonder if he could also make gains in the shore area, it’s basically NJ’s Long Island.

Definitely. I don't expect Trump to flip places like Morris back. But given the Dems move toward leftism, you wonder if their progress stagnates and Trump still wins Hunterdon and keeps Biden under 20 in Somerset.

[ProgressiveModerate]

No, but if Trump gets 2017 Gov level numbers in south Jersey he could keep the state around 6-9%.

You mean 2021?

Yes, my bad! I think if Trump really has a multiracial working class coalition he can win Cumberland, Atlantic and Gloucester.

I wonder if he could also make gains in the shore area, it’s basically NJ’s Long Island.

Ocean is already super red and I imagine he'll get even crazier margins from Orthodox Jews.

Part of the reason Ocean is so red is because of how white the County is - part of what keeps Suffolk County more competitive is you have some nonwhite pockets scattered throughout. Ocean County also doesn't have anything equivalent to the Hamptons or Huntington.

I think Ocean County has a very solid chance at being Trump's largest vote netting County in 2024 (in 2020 it was his 3rd biggest vote net being beat by Utah and Montgomery Counties).

[Roll Roons]

No, but if Trump gets 2017 Gov level numbers in south Jersey he could keep the state around 6-9%.

You mean 2021?

Yes, my bad! I think if Trump really has a multiracial working class coalition he can win Cumberland, Atlantic and Gloucester.

I wonder if he could also make gains in the shore area, it’s basically NJ’s Long Island.

Definitely. I don't expect Trump to flip places like Morris back. But given the Dems move toward leftism, you wonder if their progress stagnates and Trump still wins Hunterdon and keeps Biden under 20 in Somerset.

Honestly there is a very good chance Morris would have flipped back if Haley was the nominee.

[Tekken_Guy]

No, but if Trump gets 2017 Gov level numbers in south Jersey he could keep the state around 6-9%.

You mean 2021?

Yes, my bad! I think if Trump really has a multiracial working class coalition he can win Cumberland, Atlantic and Gloucester.

I wonder if he could also make gains in the shore area, it’s basically NJ’s Long Island.

Definitely. I don't expect Trump to flip places like Morris back. But given the Dems move toward leftism, you wonder if their progress stagnates and Trump still wins Hunterdon and keeps Biden under 20 in Somerset.

Honestly I think if Biden moves too far left on the Israel issue then Trump has a shot at winning the county back (and also flipping back NJ-07).

[heatcharger]

People are talking about an Indiana 2008 type situation. Could use a few quality polls.

[Devils30]

No, but if Trump gets 2017 Gov level numbers in south Jersey he could keep the state around 6-9%.

You mean 2021?

Yes, my bad! I think if Trump really has a multiracial working class coalition he can win Cumberland, Atlantic and Gloucester.

I wonder if he could also make gains in the shore area, it’s basically NJ’s Long Island.

Definitely. I don't expect Trump to flip places like Morris back. But given the Dems move toward leftism, you wonder if their progress stagnates and Trump still wins Hunterdon and keeps Biden under 20 in Somerset.

Honestly I think if Biden moves too far left on the Israel issue then Trump has a shot at winning the county back (and also flipping back NJ-07).

Even if Biden wins it by a couple, Kean Jr. likely survives. Of course if Trump wins, Kean is DOA in 2026.

[ProgressiveModerate]

No, but if Trump gets 2017 Gov level numbers in south Jersey he could keep the state around 6-9%.

You mean 2021?

Yes, my bad! I think if Trump really has a multiracial working class coalition he can win Cumberland, Atlantic and Gloucester.

I wonder if he could also make gains in the shore area, it’s basically NJ’s Long Island.

Definitely. I don't expect Trump to flip places like Morris back. But given the Dems move toward leftism, you wonder if their progress stagnates and Trump still wins Hunterdon and keeps Biden under 20 in Somerset.

Honestly I think if Biden moves too far left on the Israel issue then Trump has a shot at winning the county back (and also flipping back NJ-07).

I don't think people misunderstand the politics of these high-education suburban communities where Dems have been making massive gains. These voters hate Trump, Trumpism, and increasingly the modern Republican Party as a whole. No significant chunk are going to flip back to Republicans just because Joe Biden does one think they dislike on foreign policy - Biden would have to start actually becoming an aggressive progressive in his rhetoric and actions which is not going to happen.

I think Biden is very likely to win Morris County and Biden probably carries NJ-07 again Presidentially. It's more likely both go to >Biden + 10 than Trump winning them outright.

[Devils30]

No, but if Trump gets 2017 Gov level numbers in south Jersey he could keep the state around 6-9%.

You mean 2021?

Yes, my bad! I think if Trump really has a multiracial working class coalition he can win Cumberland, Atlantic and Gloucester.

I wonder if he could also make gains in the shore area, it’s basically NJ’s Long Island.

Definitely. I don't expect Trump to flip places like Morris back. But given the Dems move toward leftism, you wonder if their progress stagnates and Trump still wins Hunterdon and keeps Biden under 20 in Somerset.

Honestly I think if Biden moves too far left on the Israel issue then Trump has a shot at winning the county back (and also flipping back NJ-07).

I don't think people misunderstand the politics of these high-education suburban communities where Dems have been making massive gains. These voters hate Trump, Trumpism, and increasingly the modern Republican Party as a whole. No significant chunk are going to flip back to Republicans just because Joe Biden does one think they dislike on foreign policy - Biden would have to start actually becoming an aggressive progressive in his rhetoric and actions which is not going to happen.

I think Biden is very likely to win Morris County and Biden probably carries NJ-07 again Presidentially. It's more likely both go to >Biden + 10 than Trump winning them outright.

Yes, during at least the Trump era. But Sanders and Warren did very poorly in the 2020 primary in these types of places. If Dems go in this direction, don't be shocked if you get Miami-Dade (maybe not that extreme) like swings back to the right in 2028 or 2032.

[ProgressiveModerate]

No, but if Trump gets 2017 Gov level numbers in south Jersey he could keep the state around 6-9%.

You mean 2021?

Yes, my bad! I think if Trump really has a multiracial working class coalition he can win Cumberland, Atlantic and Gloucester.

I wonder if he could also make gains in the shore area, it’s basically NJ’s Long Island.

Definitely. I don't expect Trump to flip places like Morris back. But given the Dems move toward leftism, you wonder if their progress stagnates and Trump still wins Hunterdon and keeps Biden under 20 in Somerset.

Honestly I think if Biden moves too far left on the Israel issue then Trump has a shot at winning the county back (and also flipping back NJ-07).

I don't think people misunderstand the politics of these high-education suburban communities where Dems have been making massive gains. These voters hate Trump, Trumpism, and increasingly the modern Republican Party as a whole. No significant chunk are going to flip back to Republicans just because Joe Biden does one think they dislike on foreign policy - Biden would have to start actually becoming an aggressive progressive in his rhetoric and actions which is not going to happen.

I think Biden is very likely to win Morris County and Biden probably carries NJ-07 again Presidentially. It's more likely both go to >Biden + 10 than Trump winning them outright.

Yes, during at least the Trump era. But Sanders and Warren did very poorly in the 2020 primary in these types of places. If Dems go in this direction, don't be shocked if you get Miami-Dade (maybe not that extreme) like swings back to the right in 2028 or 2032.

Probably not quite Miami-Dade type swings, but could revert back a cycle.

I think most of these suburbs are never going back to where they were in say 2012 just because they're getting more diverse and the new college grads tend to be increasingly more Dem friendly. Republicans winning Chester, PA again at the federal is just not possible these days even with a Republican perfectly crafted for the politics in that County.

[Ancestral Republican]

We got some dumbos on this site man

[GeorgiaModerate]

About that 80,000 estimate...

https://twitter.com/MeidasTouch/status/1792334970704494958

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Single digits i believe

The state being in play, not really.

9% win for Biden i predict here.