Unless the election is a landslide for either candidate, than no - they are statistically unlikely to vote the same way, all of them being swing states.
No.
It is more than 95 percent likely each of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan will carry for the same candidate…and that all three states will carry for the winner [prevailing party].
Nowadays, the Democrats do not win the presidency with less than 23 carried states. The Republicans do not win with less than 28 carried states.
Wisconsin was the point in which the elections of 2016 and 2020 tipped for the winners from separate political parties: 2016 Republican pickup winner Donald Trump and 2020 Democratic pickup winner Joe Biden.
In both 2016 and 2020, there was no more than a 3-state spread from where the trio ranked. That, in 2016, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan were Trump’s Nos. 28 to 30 best states. (Trump carried 30 states.) That, in 2020, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin were Biden’s No. 20 to 23 best states. (Biden carried 25 states.)
Imagine, if you want to try, Election 2024 ending up a Democratic hold or a Republican pickup in which one of these states voted for the winner while the other does not. You may figure…a Republican pickup which stops at 28 carried states. So, Trump wins with 272 electoral votes. That Wisconsin flips while Pennsylvania and Michigan end up Democratic holds.
The last election in which the Tipping-Point State was the cutoff was with George W. Bush, in a 2000 Republican pickup of the presidency, having carried 30 states and 271 electoral votes with Florida coming in at No. 30.
Those do not happen often.
2000 Bush did flip and carry then-leading bellwethers Ohio and Florida. (These used to be the key states which were the path to winning the White House.) Ohio voted for all winners, no exceptions, from 1964 to 2016. Florida carried the same in all those cycles with exception in 1992.
There appears to be some people who do not recognize—or they do not want to deal with—bellwether states. I am not certain why that is.
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