PPP: NE-2: trump +3

[Matty]

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1787642823971373172

[SnowLabrador]

If Osborn's only 4 points behind Fischer, it's hard for me to see Trump winning NE-02. And yeah, I know Osborn's an independent, but I still doubt the gap would be that large. Running as an Independent didn't help Al Gross in Alaska, after all.

[Sbane]

Is it weird that this poll makes me more optimistic about Biden's chances in the midwest?

[iceman]

PPP lost all of it’s credibility after 2016. It’s a hackish polling firm.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

West and Stein would be lucky to hit 4% in any state, let alone Nebraska. The 3rd party numbers these polls have been showing are just unrealistic.

[Roll Roons]

Is it weird that this poll makes me more optimistic about Biden's chances in the midwest?

How? NE-02 is an absolute must-win for Biden.

[Sbane]

Is it weird that this poll makes me more optimistic about Biden's chances in the midwest?

How? NE-02 is an absolute must-win for Biden.

NE-02 will vote for Biden, that I am sure of. How off the polls are in the midwest is someting I am not sure of. Is there another surge of voters in the rural midwest that are going to come out for Trump? That is what I am afraid of. He will get trounced in the suburbs. So this poll actually makes me feel better about Biden's chances since it looks like he is being underestimated even in the midwest.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Go Osbourne

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

It does turn out NE-02 is useful.

Trump gets 269 if he flips PA, AZ, and NV or 270 with NE-02

And here are 3 cases where Trump gets 268 without NE-02 or 269 with NE-02
PA, WI, NV
PA, MI
PA, GA

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It does turn out NE-02 is useful.

Trump gets 269 if he flips PA, AZ, and NV or 270 with NE-02

And here are 3 cases where Trump gets 268 without NE-02 or 269 with NE-02
PA, WI, NV
PA, MI
PA, GA

Biden can win ME 2, all this says is that the polls are MOE thank you very much we can see the polls

[Dan the Roman]

Not commenting on whether Trump.will.win Ne02 or not but there is a lot of confidence which resembles 2016 about baselines.  There clearly are states where 2020 was a baseline(Arizona, Colorado, Georgia in some ways) but it was a weird year elsewhere. Democrats did really poorly in Nebraska in 2022. They had a credible candidate for Governor who only managed 36%. And 63-36 was also the statewide house vote. Bacon won by 2.6% which is similar to the margin here.

It just seems strange to me to treat NE02 as safe Democratic when Trump won it in 2016, and no Democrat won it in 2022. By contrast, even as LePage was getting wiped out in 2022 he did decently in ME02.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Not commenting on whether Trump.will.win Ne02 or not but there is a lot of confidence which resembles 2016 about baselines.  There clearly are states where 2020 was a baseline(Arizona, Colorado, Georgia in some ways) but it was a weird year elsewhere. Democrats did really poorly in Nebraska in 2022. They had a credible candidate for Governor who only managed 36%. And 63-36 was also the statewide house vote. Bacon won by 2.6% which is similar to the margin here.

It just seems strange to me to treat NE02 as safe Democratic when Trump won it in 2016, and no Democrat won it in 2022. By contrast, even as LePage was getting wiped out in 2022 he did decently in ME02.

Pillen did win NE-02 but it was only by .15%

[Dan the Roman]

Not commenting on whether Trump.will.win Ne02 or not but there is a lot of confidence which resembles 2016 about baselines.  There clearly are states where 2020 was a baseline(Arizona, Colorado, Georgia in some ways) but it was a weird year elsewhere. Democrats did really poorly in Nebraska in 2022. They had a credible candidate for Governor who only managed 36%. And 63-36 was also the statewide house vote. Bacon won by 2.6% which is similar to the margin here.

It just seems strange to me to treat NE02 as safe Democratic when Trump won it in 2016, and no Democrat won it in 2022. By contrast, even as LePage was getting wiped out in 2022 he did decently in ME02.

Pillen did win NE-02 but it was only by .15%

I think it's solidly Lean D but the idea it is safe or likely to be lopsided seems to be reading too much into the numbers.

2022 is a mixture of states where Democrats advanced on 2022, and states where they fell back. The latter that received the most attention were the big blue states, but Democrats did very poorly on the Plains and in the Deep South. Nebraska and especially South Dakota(where Noem was supposed to be in a close race) stand out as underperformances.

[Skill and Chance]

Surprised by the sanguine reaction here.  TBH this poll result (Trump +3 in NE-02) is clearly in the "Republican version of 2008" camp.  It was Biden +6 in 2020, left of all the top tier swing states, and has basically zero rural influence.  This is entirely equivalent to the raft of nearly tied polls in Minnesota and Biden +3-5 polls in Virginia we have been seeing.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Surprised by the sanguine reaction here.  TBH this poll result (Trump +3 in NE-02) is clearly in the "Republican version of 2008" camp.  It was Biden +6 in 2020, left of all the top tier swing states, and has basically zero rural influence.  This is entirely equivalent to the raft of nearly tied polls in Minnesota and Biden +3-5 polls in Virginia we have been seeing.

Those where Trump internals.

This wouldn’t be guaranteed lead to a Republican 08 but it could lead to a 269-269 tie

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is a poll MOE, and it's a good poll for Biden not bad polls, we expected Biden to win NE 2 by a landslide and he isn't but he is making gains all over look at CA 27 and it's not October yet

[Skill and Chance]

Surprised by the sanguine reaction here.  TBH this poll result (Trump +3 in NE-02) is clearly in the "Republican version of 2008" camp.  It was Biden +6 in 2020, left of all the top tier swing states, and has basically zero rural influence.  This is entirely equivalent to the raft of nearly tied polls in Minnesota and Biden +3-5 polls in Virginia we have been seeing.

Those where Trump internals.

This wouldn’t be guaranteed lead to a Republican 08 but it could lead to a 269-269 tie

My point is that this is a 9 point swing right from 2020.  And from a polling outfit traditionally associated with Dems!

Yes, the most recent close MN and VA polls were Trump internals.  However, there have been non-partisan polls in both finding similar results in the recent past.  There was a Biden +2 Survey USA in MN earlier this year, for example. 

[Xing]

It makes almost no sense that NE-02 is swinging more to the right than NE-AL in this poll.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Surprised by the sanguine reaction here.  TBH this poll result (Trump +3 in NE-02) is clearly in the "Republican version of 2008" camp.  It was Biden +6 in 2020, left of all the top tier swing states, and has basically zero rural influence.  This is entirely equivalent to the raft of nearly tied polls in Minnesota and Biden +3-5 polls in Virginia we have been seeing.

Those where Trump internals.

This wouldn’t be guaranteed lead to a Republican 08 but it could lead to a 269-269 tie

My point is that this is a 9 point swing right from 2020.  And from a polling outfit traditionally associated with Dems!

Yes, the most recent close MN and VA polls were Trump internals.  However, there have been non-partisan polls in both finding similar results in the recent past.  There was a Biden +2 Survey USA in MN earlier this year, for example. 

Swings aren’t uniform. Take the polls which have Biden up nationally/tied/ahead in rust belt states

[kwabbit]

Surprised by the sanguine reaction here.  TBH this poll result (Trump +3 in NE-02) is clearly in the "Republican version of 2008" camp.  It was Biden +6 in 2020, left of all the top tier swing states, and has basically zero rural influence.  This is entirely equivalent to the raft of nearly tied polls in Minnesota and Biden +3-5 polls in Virginia we have been seeing.

Those where Trump internals.

This wouldn’t be guaranteed lead to a Republican 08 but it could lead to a 269-269 tie

My point is that this is a 9 point swing right from 2020.  And from a polling outfit traditionally associated with Dems!

Yes, the most recent close MN and VA polls were Trump internals.  However, there have been non-partisan polls in both finding similar results in the recent past.  There was a Biden +2 Survey USA in MN earlier this year, for example. 

Swings aren’t uniform. Take the polls which have Biden up nationally/tied/ahead in rust belt states

You would expect NE-02 to polling well for Biden given that he's been polling better in areas with similar demographics. On its face this a terrible poll for Biden. However, in all likelihood this is a small sample size issue, as it's 1/3 of a n = 737 poll. It's also unclear if they weighted for results in NE-02 as well or just took the crosstab of the larger poll.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Surprised by the sanguine reaction here.  TBH this poll result (Trump +3 in NE-02) is clearly in the "Republican version of 2008" camp.  It was Biden +6 in 2020, left of all the top tier swing states, and has basically zero rural influence.  This is entirely equivalent to the raft of nearly tied polls in Minnesota and Biden +3-5 polls in Virginia we have been seeing.

Those where Trump internals.

This wouldn’t be guaranteed lead to a Republican 08 but it could lead to a 269-269 tie

My point is that this is a 9 point swing right from 2020.  And from a polling outfit traditionally associated with Dems!

Yes, the most recent close MN and VA polls were Trump internals.  However, there have been non-partisan polls in both finding similar results in the recent past.  There was a Biden +2 Survey USA in MN earlier this year, for example.  

Swings aren’t uniform. Take the polls which have Biden up nationally/tied/ahead in rust belt states

You would expect NE-02 to polling well for Biden given that he's been polling better in areas with similar demographics. On its face this a terrible poll for Biden. However, in all likelihood this is a small sample size issue, as it's 1/3 of a n = 737 poll. It's also unclear if they weighted for results in NE-02 as well or just took the crosstab of the larger poll.

Lol you down Biden every chance you get we haven't seen any ME polls either., How is Trump doing in ME 2

It's a terrible poll for Deb Fischer

[President Johnson]

Honestly, a terrible poll for Biden. PPP is usually Democratic friendly as far as I recall, so he should at least be ahead here. I've always considered NE-2 at least Lean Democratic since Trump seems toxic in most suburbs, but if he's ahead here, he's strongly favored. Nonetheless, we need to see more polls to validate this.

[Skill and Chance]

It makes almost no sense that NE-02 is swinging more to the right than NE-AL in this poll.

Not sure I believe this either, but it wouldn't be a terribly hard story to tell.  Farmers and ranchers benefit significantly from high inflation and high commodity prices while city and suburban dwellers are harmed by them.

[Boobs]

On its face a bad poll for Biden, but I question the accuracy of district subsamples in a statewide poll. Statewide it has a sample of 737, which means a likely sub-300 n for NE-02. State polls are typically weighted to state demographics rather than each district. If this was the result of a poll conducted specifically for NE-02 I’d say it would be more worrying.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

If Osborn's only 4 points behind Fischer, it's hard for me to see Trump winning NE-02. And yeah, I know Osborn's an independent, but I still doubt the gap would be that large. Running as an Independent didn't help Al Gross in Alaska, after all.

Every poll basically has the Republican underperforming Trump downballot. Every single poll literally.

Trump supposedly takes all purple states that matter and wins the White House, but the Democrats are on their way to a landslide downballot basically.