Why does one website show Virginia as a tossup?

[holtridge]

That has got to be an error. The website is electoral-vote.com. The Old Dominion should not be within five points in my opinion. Thank you.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Some people are just really conservative when it comes to predictions and leave a lot of stuff as tossup. The website you linked has Iowa as tossup as well so I doubt it's an R biased decision.

[ProgressiveModerate]

It seems like that website bases it only on polling so probably some flukish VA poll.

Arkansas for instance is only Lean R which doesn't make any sense

[SnowLabrador]

Because it's gotten redder since 2020.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

VA isn't going to suddenly flip back to the GOP. At best it may be within 5 points.

[Progressive Pessimist]

It seems like that website bases it only on polling so probably some flukish VA poll.

Arkansas for instance is only Lean R which doesn't make any sense

So, they're factoring in the Zogby polls, it seems.

[DS0816]

That has got to be an error. The website is electoral-vote.com. The Old Dominion should not be within five points in my opinion. Thank you.

Electoral-Vote.com takes whatever latest poll it can come across…and then colors the map accordingly.

There is no perspective.

I do not look to Electoral-Vote.com as a source which can tell me what will happen.

[°Leprechaun]

I am not defending the inclusion of Zogby, but here is what they have to say:

https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2024/Pres/Maps/May02.html#item-7

[DS0816]

I am not defending the inclusion of Zogby, but here is what they have to say:

https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2024/Pres/Maps/May02.html#item-7

Zogby did some polls.

But it is not the responsibility of a pollster to nail down the margins, state after state, to tell us what will end up playing out.

If it was…one would not only dismiss but mock Zogby. Especially given its list of state polls shows a 2024 Republican pickup of Nevada by +6 and a 2024 Republican hold of Indiana by +4. In 2020, they were carried differently and by more than 15 points in their margins spread. For state ranks, they were 14 states apart. (With a 2020 Democratic pickup of the presidency, for Joe Biden, Nevada was the party’s No. 21 state and Indiana, not carried, ranked No. 35.)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Due to fact Zogby had it close it won't be close it's a 49/45 D state

[holtridge]

That has got to be an error. The website is electoral-vote.com. The Old Dominion should not be within five points in my opinion. Thank you.

My prediction is that Virginia will be like Minnesota in 2016 and decided by <2%. Very close but ultimately going to Biden.

I think Trump wins 2016 states + Nevada + Minnesota with Virginia being the next closest state.

You think Trump will win Minnesota? I don't know about that. Minnesota seems to always back Farm Labour Party candidates.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Biden is winning VA, it might not be convincingly, but he's gonna win it. And if he loses VA, it doesn't really matter since there's no way that at that point he could still win the election, even simply VA being in contention is basically already game over.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden will win VA by the same amount as Hillary 49/45 but that doesn't mean that he is gonna lose the Rust belt