Lia Thomas sues to be allowed to try out for US Olympic Team

[AlterEgo]

that's supposed to be how the scientific method works, basing your conclusions on observed reality and not just hypothesizing endlessly.

No. "How the scientific method works" is definitely not supposed to be taking a sample size of one and imagining that has proven anything.

[Since I'm the mad scientist proclaimed by myself]

It's "funny" how all the anti trans sports people are ignoring the best points made in this thread except for a few people calling me crazy, asserting I'm wrong without even the barest hint of an argument, scientific illiteracy, or "this is a simple issue. Anyone who disagrees with me is just an activist who can't think for themselves".

Lia's high performance is an outlier among the transfem athletes we've seen iirc. And even then it wasn't enough to warrant banning her from competing. A study by the Olympics people found that the narrative that trans women are inherently stronger overall is deeply flawed.
 https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-opinion/olympic-trans-women-ioc-study-rcna148437

Regardless of the long-term averages, it’s obvious that Thomas succeeded because of a biological advantage from having lived and trained for 20 years before transitioning. She got progressively worse throughout the one season she competed in Women’s swimming and I doubt that she could actually make the team at this point, but she still reaped an unfair advantage in 2022.

Is it? She had been on HRT for close to three years by the time she switched to the womens league, and her commonly cited 89th place ranking in the mens division was before she had started at all. Athletes bodies change as they grow older, and the age of peak performance at a sport varies based by sport and by individual. I found a study on it but it only takes the results of the top three swimmers among swiss elite freestyle swimmers for a given age and sex into account, so it's applicability is limited in this case. It's entirely possible that Lia's improvement in place was mostly or entirely a result of age differences rather than sex differences. This is one of many reasons that taking a quick glance at one case is a terrible way to evaluate a question as complex as this, even of you don't follow it up by declaring a study based on a large measured data set with actual controls, etc as "just hypothesizing endlessly".

[The Free North]

If biological sex != gender:

Where is the dissonance in asking a trans woman to compete against men? 

[Pres Mike]

If biological sex != gender:

Where is the dissonance in asking a trans woman to compete against men? 

Some activists would rather hurt the ablity of hundreds of cis atheltes to compete to make one trans athlete feel better

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

If biological sex != gender:

Where is the dissonance in asking a trans woman to compete against men? 

Some activists would rather hurt the ability of hundreds of cis athletes to compete to make one trans athlete feel better

You realize this nonsense hurts ciswomen (and girls) ...

just as much, if not more ...

as trans women.

You have one, maybe two examples of trans women being able to compete, but because of people like you fanning hysteria there are dozens and dozens of ciswomen being harassed because they don't conform neatly to gender stereotypes. And don't fane "oh well that's wrong of people'', because this is the end of your argument. Grown adults screaming to look at the genitals of a nine year old because their hair is too short.

I can keep going btw

and it's not just a sports thing

Transpanic also perpetuates racist ideas about gender too.

[kwabbit]

For those who may not remember, Thomas:

• Was the #89 ranked male swimmer nationally in her final year as a man, despite being hindered by female hormones. This may not be elite, but it sure isn't "crappy" if you're in the top 100
• Was the #32 ranked female swimmer nationally in her only season as a female, which isn't really elite either
• Did not set any records as a female swimmer
• Won 1 national championship as a woman while competing in 4 events

I think it's fairly obvious that she did have some advantage over ciswomen swimmers, but why overstate the argument by saying she "set all kinds of records and won everything as a woman swimmer" when that's an objectively false statement?

As someone who has followed college swimming for a while before and after Thomas transitioned, I have to say that you are getting things mixed up.

First of all, Thomas transitioned after the 2018-2019 season. All of her best times in Men's Swimming were before she started HRT.

Second, those rankings are extremely flawed. Swimcloud uses some bizarre methodology and those rankings are not really taken seriously. Thomas was probably around #300 in 2018-2019, as she was quite a bit off NCAA scoring even in her best event. 133 different men scored in 2019 (top 16) and 32nd is a long ways off that. In 2022 she was the 6th best scoring woman.

In her events, fastest times in NCAA swimming:
1650: 32nd to 13th
500: 65th to 1st
200: 554th to 3rd
100: Did not even swim it, probably something like #2000, as she was not a sprinter, to 13th

Her relative improvement was unheard of. Usually rapid improvement is due to young age or a program change, but neither was the case here. The fact that her relative improvement was most acute in sprint events is further sign that she held a biological advantage, as those are the events where men are fastest relative to women.

No one who follows swimming even questions that Thomas held an unfair advantage. It's not rooted out of transphobia, as most of us hate Riley Gaines and don't want to target to Thomas. Even those who support her swimming in Women's events do so in support of inclusion. I have seldom seen anyone try to say she didn't reap a massive advantage and that things were fair.

To your final point, her best times in 200 and the 100 pre-HRT wouldn't have been Women's records in the first place. The fact that she went from a nobody in sprint events to among the best in the nation is striking. If any scoring sprinter male swimmer transitioned, they would be pretty likely to demolish existing Women's records.

[mjba257]

This is a losing issue for Democrats, especially if they want to be the party of suburban wine moms, a lot of whom have daughters who are athletes and/or are former athletes themselves. When they see these stories of biological men dominating women's sports, they are not happy. And god forbid if their daughter looses out on a scholarship because a biological male beat her in a competition.

Democrats are stupid if they think this is an issue worth dying over

[7,052,770]

For those who may not remember, Thomas:

• Was the #89 ranked male swimmer nationally in her final year as a man, despite being hindered by female hormones. This may not be elite, but it sure isn't "crappy" if you're in the top 100
• Was the #32 ranked female swimmer nationally in her only season as a female, which isn't really elite either
• Did not set any records as a female swimmer
• Won 1 national championship as a woman while competing in 4 events

I think it's fairly obvious that she did have some advantage over ciswomen swimmers, but why overstate the argument by saying she "set all kinds of records and won everything as a woman swimmer" when that's an objectively false statement?

As someone who has followed college swimming for a while before and after Thomas transitioned, I have to say that you are getting things mixed up.

First of all, Thomas transitioned after the 2018-2019 season. All of her best times in Men's Swimming were before she started HRT.

Second, those rankings are extremely flawed. Swimcloud uses some bizarre methodology and those rankings are not really taken seriously. Thomas was probably around #300 in 2018-2019, as she was quite a bit off NCAA scoring even in her best event. 133 different men scored in 2019 (top 16) and 32nd is a long ways off that. In 2022 she was the 6th best scoring woman.

In her events, fastest times in NCAA swimming:
1650: 32nd to 13th
500: 65th to 1st
200: 554th to 3rd
100: Did not even swim it, probably something like #2000, as she was not a sprinter, to 13th

Her relative improvement was unheard of. Usually rapid improvement is due to young age or a program change, but neither was the case here. The fact that her relative improvement was most acute in sprint events is further sign that she held a biological advantage, as those are the events where men are fastest relative to women.

No one who follows swimming even questions that Thomas held an unfair advantage. It's not rooted out of transphobia, as most of us hate Riley Gaines and don't want to target to Thomas. Even those who support her swimming in Women's events do so in support of inclusion. I have seldom seen anyone try to say she didn't reap a massive advantage and that things were fair.

To your final point, her best times in 200 and the 100 pre-HRT wouldn't have been Women's records in the first place. The fact that she went from a nobody in sprint events to among the best in the nation is striking. If any scoring sprinter male swimmer transitioned, they would be pretty likely to demolish existing Women's records.

"I think it's fairly obvious that she did have some advantage over ciswomen swimmers."

[Dan the Roman]

Here is my impression of why the situation is a bit of an outlier.

There are some things HRT changes, and they are greater earlier on, but one of the things it doesn't is Height. And height matters a lot in swimming.

 The issue with Lia Thomas is not that they transitioned. It was that they were above 6ft before doing so, and no matter what HRT did to muscle mass, that height was going to remain. Post-transition they are either 6' 1 or 6 4' with the lower one still taller than 99.99% of  biological women.

[Steve from Lambeth]

Post-transition they are either 6' 1 or 6 4' with the lower one still taller than 99.99% of  biological women.

I find it hard to believe that there are fewer women taller than 185cm than there are women of any height in all of Birmingham, England.

[Since I'm the mad scientist proclaimed by myself]

Here is my impression of why the situation is a bit of an outlier.

There are some things HRT changes, and they are greater earlier on, but one of the things it doesn't is Height. And height matters a lot in swimming.

 The issue with Lia Thomas is not that they transitioned. It was that they were above 6ft before doing so, and no matter what HRT did to muscle mass, that height was going to remain. Post-transition they are either 6' 1 or 6 4' with the lower one still taller than 99.99% of  biological women.

Just say she bro.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

This is a losing issue for Democrats, especially if they want to be the party of suburban wine moms, a lot of whom have daughters who are athletes and/or are former athletes themselves. When they see these stories of biological men dominating women's sports, they are not happy. And god forbid if their daughter looses out on a scholarship because a biological male beat her in a competition.

Democrats are stupid if they think this is an issue worth dying over

She's suing in a court in Switzerland.  And just to be clear, we're talking about amateur sports here.  This has nothing to do with US politics, nor should it.

[Dan the Roman]

Post-transition they are either 6' 1 or 6 4' with the lower one still taller than 99.99% of  biological women.

I find it hard to believe that there are fewer women taller than 185cm than there are women of any height in all of Birmingham, England.

Census disagrees.

https://www2.census.gov/library/publications/2010/compendia/statab/130ed/tables/11s0205.pdf

[Sol]

Okay then, ban Lia Thomas because she's 6 ft tall, that's fair enough. Just apply it consistently.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Okay then, ban Lia Thomas because she's 6 ft tall, that's fair enough. Just apply it consistently.

Yea there’s not way to ban trans athletes that doesn’t also impact cis athletes, besides explicit discrimination. Which gives away that it’s all a farce

[Pres Mike]

This is a losing issue for Democrats, especially if they want to be the party of suburban wine moms, a lot of whom have daughters who are athletes and/or are former athletes themselves. When they see these stories of biological men dominating women's sports, they are not happy. And god forbid if their daughter looses out on a scholarship because a biological male beat her in a competition.

Democrats are stupid if they think this is an issue worth dying over

She's suing in a court in Switzerland.  And just to be clear, we're talking about amateur sports here.  This has nothing to do with US politics, nor should it.

The NCAA National Championship isn't amateur, its the highest honor for a college athelete.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

This is a losing issue for Democrats, especially if they want to be the party of suburban wine moms, a lot of whom have daughters who are athletes and/or are former athletes themselves. When they see these stories of biological men dominating women's sports, they are not happy. And god forbid if their daughter looses out on a scholarship because a biological male beat her in a competition.

Democrats are stupid if they think this is an issue worth dying over

She's suing in a court in Switzerland.  And just to be clear, we're talking about amateur sports here.  This has nothing to do with US politics, nor should it.

The NCAA National Championship isn't amateur, its the highest honor for a college athelete.

You don’t know what amateur means. NCAA is amateur but still highly competitive

[Dan the Roman]

Okay then, ban Lia Thomas because she's 6 ft tall, that's fair enough. Just apply it consistently.

The argument is whether a mediocre male will beat top women despite HRT. Height is an advantage that is not going be erased and will leave a male in the top 15% ahead of biological women in outside the top .1%.

Now whether that is a reason on its own to ban Trans participation is a different matter. But the claims that HRT somehow erases biological advantages in swimming for any given individual is baseless and absurd.

A biological male who is 5'5 and transitions will not raise those issues for the same reason a biological female who transitions to male will rarely raise them. Because sports is based on actual laws of physics, not a desire for a specific morality. And frankly as its a competition, it only matters insofar as it effects the competition.