MD Sen Democratic primary: Who wins?

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

With Alsobrooks and like Blunt Rochester becoming senators soon, the number of black women elected to the senate is about to double

[DrScholl]

I know this is kind of ridiculous but Alsobrooks winning (and not that far off from my prediction *ahem*) but I feel more confident that Biden will in November and outperform polls in Pennsylvania, Georgia, Michigan atleast.

Moore’s 2022 upset, Biden’s massive over performance in South Carolina in 2020, and now Alsobrooks shows a pattern that pollsters haven’t figured out how to accurately poll in largely black communities.

The question that has to be asked is if pollsters are actually reaching enough Black voters. Weighting can only go so far in terms of getting accurate results. Random sampling is going to pick up Black voters from all over a state and if they don't get enough from the areas where most of the Black population lives that could cause an issue.

[President Johnson]

With Alsobrooks and like Blunt Rochester becoming senators soon, the number of black women elected to the senate is about to double

Still unfortunate that one net gain doubles the number. It's a low bar.

[DaleCooper]

Obviously I can't see the future, but I strongly suspect that Hogan will implode by November. This is not going to be close, and the primary polling miss is probably a pretty good sign of how off the polls will be for the general here.

[Skill and Chance]

I know this is kind of ridiculous but Alsobrooks winning (and not that far off from my prediction *ahem*) but I feel more confident that Biden will in November and outperform polls in Pennsylvania, Georgia, Michigan atleast.

Moore’s 2022 upset, Biden’s massive over performance in South Carolina in 2020, and now Alsobrooks shows a pattern that pollsters haven’t figured out how to accurately poll in largely black communities.

I don't think this is the correct read.  If it means anything for the presidential race (it probably doesn't), it would be that Trone's money advantage and absolute dominance on the airwaves didn't matter. 

[Progressive Pessimist]

I know this is kind of ridiculous but Alsobrooks winning (and not that far off from my prediction *ahem*) but I feel more confident that Biden will in November and outperform polls in Pennsylvania, Georgia, Michigan atleast.

Moore’s 2022 upset, Biden’s massive over performance in South Carolina in 2020, and now Alsobrooks shows a pattern that pollsters haven’t figured out how to accurately poll in largely black communities.

I don't think this is the correct read.  If it means anything for the presidential race (it probably doesn't), it would be that Trone's money advantage and absolute dominance on the airwaves didn't matter. 

If it didn't matter at all, it would have shown up in the earlier polls that had Alsobrooks well behind him.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

With Alsobrooks and like Blunt Rochester becoming senators soon, the number of black women elected to the senate is about to double

Still unfortunate that one net gain doubles the number. It's a low bar.

A few years ago I did the numbers for the % of senators in history who were black women. Ar the time there were about 1,200 so after Election Day about .3% of American senators will have been black women

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

There are gonna be 2 blk men and 2 blk women Booker and Warnock and Alsobrooks and ROCHESTER

[DK_Mo82]

It's basically a toss up but I have been unimpressed with Trone so far.. Alsobrooks may have slight edge if forced to choose, Race Polarization could be significant in the Democratic primary.

I never imaged I say this but Alsobrooks is not a shoe-in to beat Hogan if she makes that far.  She probably wins anyway due to it being a pres year but man these are bad candidates when you compare to Gallego or the California field..

Democrats wouldn't have had to bring their A-game in this race against anyone but Hogan, but he didn't announce until the day of the filing deadline and until then, there was zero indication that he was going to run.

Even if they had tho who could Md Dems run as a so called sure winner against Hogan? Besides Wes Moore I guess?

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

It's basically a toss up but I have been unimpressed with Trone so far.. Alsobrooks may have slight edge if forced to choose, Race Polarization could be significant in the Democratic primary.

I never imaged I say this but Alsobrooks is not a shoe-in to beat Hogan if she makes that far.  She probably wins anyway due to it being a pres year but man these are bad candidates when you compare to Gallego or the California field..

Democrats wouldn't have had to bring their A-game in this race against anyone but Hogan, but he didn't announce until the day of the filing deadline and until then, there was zero indication that he was going to run.

Even if they had tho who could Md Dems run as a so called sure winner against Hogan? Besides Wes Moore I guess?

Raskin would win with over 65% even against Hogan.

[Skill and Chance]

With Alsobrooks and like Blunt Rochester becoming senators soon, the number of black women elected to the senate is about to double

Still unfortunate that one net gain doubles the number. It's a low bar.

A few years ago I did the numbers for the % of senators in history who were black women. Ar the time there were about 1,200 so after Election Day about .3% of American senators will have been black women

What is the % for senators elected after the VRA?

[wbrocks67]

I know this is kind of ridiculous but Alsobrooks winning (and not that far off from my prediction *ahem*) but I feel more confident that Biden will in November and outperform polls in Pennsylvania, Georgia, Michigan atleast.

Moore’s 2022 upset, Biden’s massive over performance in South Carolina in 2020, and now Alsobrooks shows a pattern that pollsters haven’t figured out how to accurately poll in largely black communities.

I don't think this is the correct read.  If it means anything for the presidential race (it probably doesn't), it would be that Trone's money advantage and absolute dominance on the airwaves didn't matter.  

Nah, I think the correct read is that money can't solve all your problems. It can help, but if you're unlikable like Trone and don't have the institutional support/endorsements that Alsobrooks had, then yeah. But Biden doesn't have those issues.

Honestly the only thing Trone really had going for him was money and he still got 40%+ of the vote, so money still does matter. Basically every major Dem in the state was against him lol

If you look at this way, Alsobrooks basically had to assemble the Avengers of Maryland to be able to win this by the end. She had to pull out every stop she could - or else there was a chance she could lose simply bc Trone had $$

[Canis]

With Alsobrooks and like Blunt Rochester becoming senators soon, the number of black women elected to the senate is about to double

Its a shame Barbara Lee didn't win :/

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

Alsobrooks is a strong candidate including apparently a strong campaigner. She's very popular as Prince George's County Executive and seems to have done a good job. I wonder how many people here who have concerns about her are simply noticing something 'different' about her.

The biggest criticism is that she would probably be a better fit for governor than for U.S Senator. Of course, I wonder about the sanity of anybody not already in Congress who wants to join Congress, but that's another issue.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Angela Alsobrooks will win by 4 pts

[South Dakota Democrat]

Pretty comfortable Trone win, unfortunately.

A Green Party South Dakotan?  That's like finding a unicorn.