MD Sen Democratic primary: Who wins?
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
May 22, 2024, 03:07:41 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, VirginiŠ, Gracile)
  MD Sen Democratic primary: Who wins?
« previous next »
Pages: 1 2 3 4 [5]
Poll
Question: Select one
#1
Angela Alsobrooks
 
#2
David Trone
 
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 87

Author Topic: MD Sen Democratic primary: Who wins?  (Read 4203 times)
Born to Slay. Forced to Work.
leecannon
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,092
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.78

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #100 on: May 15, 2024, 02:35:20 PM »

With Alsobrooks and like Blunt Rochester becoming senators soon, the number of black women elected to the senate is about to double
Logged
DrScholl
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,275
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -3.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #101 on: May 15, 2024, 02:43:19 PM »

I know this is kind of ridiculous but Alsobrooks winning (and not that far off from my prediction *ahem*) but I feel more confident that Biden will in November and outperform polls in Pennsylvania, Georgia, Michigan atleast.

Mooreís 2022 upset, Bidenís massive over performance in South Carolina in 2020, and now Alsobrooks shows a pattern that pollsters havenít figured out how to accurately poll in largely black communities.

The question that has to be asked is if pollsters are actually reaching enough Black voters. Weighting can only go so far in terms of getting accurate results. Random sampling is going to pick up Black voters from all over a state and if they don't get enough from the areas where most of the Black population lives that could cause an issue.
Logged
President Johnson
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,180
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -4.70


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #102 on: May 15, 2024, 02:43:39 PM »

With Alsobrooks and like Blunt Rochester becoming senators soon, the number of black women elected to the senate is about to double

Still unfortunate that one net gain doubles the number. It's a low bar.
Logged
DaleCooper
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,220


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #103 on: May 15, 2024, 05:17:46 PM »

Obviously I can't see the future, but I strongly suspect that Hogan will implode by November. This is not going to be close, and the primary polling miss is probably a pretty good sign of how off the polls will be for the general here.
Logged
Skill and Chance
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,750
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #104 on: May 15, 2024, 05:37:53 PM »

I know this is kind of ridiculous but Alsobrooks winning (and not that far off from my prediction *ahem*) but I feel more confident that Biden will in November and outperform polls in Pennsylvania, Georgia, Michigan atleast.

Mooreís 2022 upset, Bidenís massive over performance in South Carolina in 2020, and now Alsobrooks shows a pattern that pollsters havenít figured out how to accurately poll in largely black communities.

I don't think this is the correct read.  If it means anything for the presidential race (it probably doesn't), it would be that Trone's money advantage and absolute dominance on the airwaves didn't matter. 
Logged
Progressive Pessimist
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 33,724
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.71, S: -7.65

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #105 on: May 15, 2024, 06:05:15 PM »

I know this is kind of ridiculous but Alsobrooks winning (and not that far off from my prediction *ahem*) but I feel more confident that Biden will in November and outperform polls in Pennsylvania, Georgia, Michigan atleast.

Mooreís 2022 upset, Bidenís massive over performance in South Carolina in 2020, and now Alsobrooks shows a pattern that pollsters havenít figured out how to accurately poll in largely black communities.

I don't think this is the correct read.  If it means anything for the presidential race (it probably doesn't), it would be that Trone's money advantage and absolute dominance on the airwaves didn't matter. 

If it didn't matter at all, it would have shown up in the earlier polls that had Alsobrooks well behind him.
Logged
Born to Slay. Forced to Work.
leecannon
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,092
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.78

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #106 on: May 15, 2024, 06:21:44 PM »

With Alsobrooks and like Blunt Rochester becoming senators soon, the number of black women elected to the senate is about to double

Still unfortunate that one net gain doubles the number. It's a low bar.

A few years ago I did the numbers for the % of senators in history who were black women. Ar the time there were about 1,200 so after Election Day about .3% of American senators will have been black women
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 89,566
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #107 on: May 15, 2024, 06:34:17 PM »

There are gonna be 2 blk men and 2 blk women Booker and Warnock and Alsobrooks and ROCHESTER
Logged
DK_Mo82
Rookie
**
Posts: 214
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #108 on: May 15, 2024, 07:02:02 PM »

It's basically a toss up but I have been unimpressed with Trone so far.. Alsobrooks may have slight edge if forced to choose, Race Polarization could be significant in the Democratic primary.

I never imaged I say this but Alsobrooks is not a shoe-in to beat Hogan if she makes that far.  She probably wins anyway due to it being a pres year but man these are bad candidates when you compare to Gallego or the California field..

Democrats wouldn't have had to bring their A-game in this race against anyone but Hogan, but he didn't announce until the day of the filing deadline and until then, there was zero indication that he was going to run.

Even if they had tho who could Md Dems run as a so called sure winner against Hogan? Besides Wes Moore I guess?
Logged
Born to Slay. Forced to Work.
leecannon
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,092
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.78

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #109 on: May 15, 2024, 07:04:45 PM »

It's basically a toss up but I have been unimpressed with Trone so far.. Alsobrooks may have slight edge if forced to choose, Race Polarization could be significant in the Democratic primary.

I never imaged I say this but Alsobrooks is not a shoe-in to beat Hogan if she makes that far.  She probably wins anyway due to it being a pres year but man these are bad candidates when you compare to Gallego or the California field..

Democrats wouldn't have had to bring their A-game in this race against anyone but Hogan, but he didn't announce until the day of the filing deadline and until then, there was zero indication that he was going to run.

Even if they had tho who could Md Dems run as a so called sure winner against Hogan? Besides Wes Moore I guess?

Raskin would win with over 65% even against Hogan.
Logged
Skill and Chance
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,750
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #110 on: May 15, 2024, 07:18:25 PM »

With Alsobrooks and like Blunt Rochester becoming senators soon, the number of black women elected to the senate is about to double

Still unfortunate that one net gain doubles the number. It's a low bar.

A few years ago I did the numbers for the % of senators in history who were black women. Ar the time there were about 1,200 so after Election Day about .3% of American senators will have been black women

What is the % for senators elected after the VRA?
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,631


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #111 on: May 15, 2024, 07:21:41 PM »
« Edited: May 15, 2024, 07:59:26 PM by wbrocks67 »

I know this is kind of ridiculous but Alsobrooks winning (and not that far off from my prediction *ahem*) but I feel more confident that Biden will in November and outperform polls in Pennsylvania, Georgia, Michigan atleast.

Mooreís 2022 upset, Bidenís massive over performance in South Carolina in 2020, and now Alsobrooks shows a pattern that pollsters havenít figured out how to accurately poll in largely black communities.

I don't think this is the correct read.  If it means anything for the presidential race (it probably doesn't), it would be that Trone's money advantage and absolute dominance on the airwaves didn't matter.  

Nah, I think the correct read is that money can't solve all your problems. It can help, but if you're unlikable like Trone and don't have the institutional support/endorsements that Alsobrooks had, then yeah. But Biden doesn't have those issues.

Honestly the only thing Trone really had going for him was money and he still got 40%+ of the vote, so money still does matter. Basically every major Dem in the state was against him lol

If you look at this way, Alsobrooks basically had to assemble the Avengers of Maryland to be able to win this by the end. She had to pull out every stop she could - or else there was a chance she could lose simply bc Trone had $$
Logged
Canis
canis
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,522


Political Matrix
E: -5.03, S: -6.26

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #112 on: May 15, 2024, 08:11:16 PM »

With Alsobrooks and like Blunt Rochester becoming senators soon, the number of black women elected to the senate is about to double
Its a shame Barbara Lee didn't win :/
Logged
Benjamin Frank 2.0
Frank 2.0
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,193
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #113 on: May 15, 2024, 08:31:27 PM »
« Edited: May 15, 2024, 08:35:26 PM by Benjamin Frank 2.0 »

Alsobrooks is a strong candidate including apparently a strong campaigner. She's very popular as Prince George's County Executive and seems to have done a good job. I wonder how many people here who have concerns about her are simply noticing something 'different' about her.

The biggest criticism is that she would probably be a better fit for governor than for U.S Senator. Of course, I wonder about the sanity of anybody not already in Congress who wants to join Congress, but that's another issue.
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 89,566
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #114 on: May 15, 2024, 09:33:11 PM »

Angela Alsobrooks will win by 4 pts
Logged
South Dakota Democrat
jrk26
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,426


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #115 on: May 15, 2024, 10:13:56 PM »

Pretty comfortable Trone win, unfortunately.

A Green Party South Dakotan?  That's like finding a unicorn.
Logged
Pages: 1 2 3 4 [5]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.04 seconds with 14 queries.