Name a state thats going to surprise us this November

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

Florida, when Trump wins it by 15%.

[holtridge]

Alaska by it's very close margin. It won't determine the election though. It will be called well after the election is called.

[°Leprechaun]

I'll go with North Carolina.

[DS0816]

If we name it it’s not a surprise then is it

Correct.

Given this site…this topic cannot be resisted.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

NV and AZ Trump isn't winning them by 5 pts margins

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

PA, by not actually being in doubt, even if Trump has a good night.

[iceman]

I do think there is a state that’s going to give an Indiana 2008 like results in November,  but I cannot pinpoint certainly which one would be it.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

NC but looking at Siena polls that seems remote now

[MarkD]

Alaska

[ProgressiveModerate]

I do think there is a state that’s going to give an Indiana 2008 like results in November,  but I cannot pinpoint certainly which one would be it.

I don't think this is possible with how modern media works. Sure there could be a shock flip, but I think if there is one the state remains competitive in the long run and doesn't just lurch left.

Indiana was able to have a uniquely strong lurch left 2004-->2008 because Obama spent money in the state and McCain didn't; this reflected in County level results where demographically similar counties in IL and OH didn't quite experience the same magnitudes of swings. Then in 2012 when Obama bailed on the state it swung back hard right and voted for Romney by double-digits.

These sorts of regional boost from localized spending are much much smaller if not non-existent today because of increased polarization and the nationalization of media since then.

[iceman]

In regards to surprises: I have a feeling one of these states will be held below 10% margin:

New Jersey
Rhode Island or
Delaware

[2016]

Name 1 state that would give surprising results this November for either candidate or whichever trend or swing.

I would have to guess Minnesota, Trump might carry it very narrowly due to RFK siphoning a huge chunk of votes from Biden.

Ok, since you asked I make mine I'd say New Mexico.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I do think there is a state that’s going to give an Indiana 2008 like results in November,  but I cannot pinpoint certainly which one would be it.

I don't think this is possible with how modern media works. Sure there could be a shock flip, but I think if there is one the state remains competitive in the long run and doesn't just lurch left.

Indiana was able to have a uniquely strong lurch left 2004-->2008 because Obama spent money in the state and McCain didn't; this reflected in County level results where demographically similar counties in IL and OH didn't quite experience the same magnitudes of swings. Then in 2012 when Obama bailed on the state it swung back hard right and voted for Romney by double-digits.

These sorts of regional boost from localized spending are much much smaller if not non-existent today because of increased polarization and the nationalization of media since then.

Indiana in 2012 shifted right but not anywhere near the 20% Bush or Trump got. The Obama effect was still very much noticeable.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Florida, when Trump wins it by 15%.

Could even be 20% in all honesty.

If he truly wins 58% of hispanics, democrats will completely be annihilated. In particular since not all 42% would go to Biden, but also RFK and third party candidates.

[cherry mandarin]

I don't think this is possible with how modern media works. Sure there could be a shock flip, but I think if there is one the state remains competitive in the long run and doesn't just lurch left.

I agree with the second half of your post, but demographic trends and coalition shifts aren't always linear either. Look at how Trump exceeded the GOP baseline in the north in 2016 while Clinton made gains in the south, yet in 2020 MN/MI/NH/ME trended left harder than VA did.