BPS Latino voters in AZ, CA, NV - Biden +20, +22, +15

[Vern]

Trump in the 30s is the relevant number to look at. That contradicts the idea that he's improving with Hispanic voters.

In literally no presidential election has it been useful to look at the actual % number voting for someone. It's the margin.

If we're going by that method then Biden is bound to lose in a landslide "47% of Arizona latinos won't vote for Biden!!!"

It is useful when Trump's base numbers are been predictable for the most part. And that doesn't even account for how he was overestimated to varying degrees in primary polling. This polling points to Trump losing that Hispanic vote in these states between 64-36 and 66-34.

Uh no it doesn't???

There's no reason you should assume Trump's number stays where it is but Biden picks up literally every undecided.

Duh, yes it does. Rarely doesn't anyone lingering in the 30s perform much better against a candidate who is over 50%. California statewide polling is a good example of this.

Undecideds do not all go one way lmao.
Otherwise I could say "look Biden is only at 44% in Michigan, he's gonna lose it by double digits!"

You can’t debate people who have lost touch with reality. And most people on Atlas have lost touch with reality. They are stuck in their bubble.

[DrScholl]

Trump in the 30s is the relevant number to look at. That contradicts the idea that he's improving with Hispanic voters.

In literally no presidential election has it been useful to look at the actual % number voting for someone. It's the margin.

If we're going by that method then Biden is bound to lose in a landslide "47% of Arizona latinos won't vote for Biden!!!"

It is useful when Trump's base numbers are been predictable for the most part. And that doesn't even account for how he was overestimated to varying degrees in primary polling. This polling points to Trump losing that Hispanic vote in these states between 64-36 and 66-34.

Uh no it doesn't???

There's no reason you should assume Trump's number stays where it is but Biden picks up literally every undecided.

Duh, yes it does. Rarely doesn't anyone lingering in the 30s perform much better against a candidate who is over 50%. California statewide polling is a good example of this.

Undecideds do not all go one way lmao.
Otherwise I could say "look Biden is only at 44% in Michigan, he's gonna lose it by double digits!"

In some cases they do break heavily toward one candidate. Stuck in the low 30s the best Trump could do is probably scrape 40%. But of course you all think he's winning California because Biden hasn't cracked 60% in any polling there so talking to Trump supporters is like talking to a brick wall. DC is on the table for you people.

[DrScholl]

Trump in the 30s is the relevant number to look at. That contradicts the idea that he's improving with Hispanic voters.

In literally no presidential election has it been useful to look at the actual % number voting for someone. It's the margin.

If we're going by that method then Biden is bound to lose in a landslide "47% of Arizona latinos won't vote for Biden!!!"

It is useful when Trump's base numbers are been predictable for the most part. And that doesn't even account for how he was overestimated to varying degrees in primary polling. This polling points to Trump losing that Hispanic vote in these states between 64-36 and 66-34.

Uh no it doesn't???

There's no reason you should assume Trump's number stays where it is but Biden picks up literally every undecided.

Duh, yes it does. Rarely doesn't anyone lingering in the 30s perform much better against a candidate who is over 50%. California statewide polling is a good example of this.

Undecideds do not all go one way lmao.
Otherwise I could say "look Biden is only at 44% in Michigan, he's gonna lose it by double digits!"

You can’t debate people who have lost touch with reality. And most people on Atlas have lost touch with reality. They are stuck in their bubble.

I'm one of the few people here who actually got the 2022 midterm election right and never bought into those predictions of Republicans winning 40+ seats in the House. You probably don't even think Trump lost in 2020 so who really is out of touch with reality?

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Trump in the 30s is the relevant number to look at. That contradicts the idea that he's improving with Hispanic voters.

In literally no presidential election has it been useful to look at the actual % number voting for someone. It's the margin.

If we're going by that method then Biden is bound to lose in a landslide "47% of Arizona latinos won't vote for Biden!!!"

It is useful when Trump's base numbers are been predictable for the most part. And that doesn't even account for how he was overestimated to varying degrees in primary polling. This polling points to Trump losing that Hispanic vote in these states between 64-36 and 66-34.

Uh no it doesn't???

There's no reason you should assume Trump's number stays where it is but Biden picks up literally every undecided.

Duh, yes it does. Rarely doesn't anyone lingering in the 30s perform much better against a candidate who is over 50%. California statewide polling is a good example of this.

Undecideds do not all go one way lmao.
Otherwise I could say "look Biden is only at 44% in Michigan, he's gonna lose it by double digits!"

You can’t debate people who have lost touch with reality. And most people on Atlas have lost touch with reality. They are stuck in their bubble.

I'm one of the few people here who actually got the 2022 midterm election right and never bought into those predictions of Republicans winning 40+ seats in the House. You probably don't even think Trump lost in 2020 so who really is out of touch with reality?

What was your prediction for the Wisconsin margin in 2020?
That would prove whether you just always predict democrats overperform or if you actually are good at predictions.

[omar04]

Trump in the 30s is the relevant number to look at. That contradicts the idea that he's improving with Hispanic voters.

In literally no presidential election has it been useful to look at the actual % number voting for someone. It's the margin.

If we're going by that method then Biden is bound to lose in a landslide "47% of Arizona latinos won't vote for Biden!!!"

It is useful when Trump's base numbers are been predictable for the most part. And that doesn't even account for how he was overestimated to varying degrees in primary polling. This polling points to Trump losing that Hispanic vote in these states between 64-36 and 66-34.

Uh no it doesn't???

There's no reason you should assume Trump's number stays where it is but Biden picks up literally every undecided.

Duh, yes it does. Rarely doesn't anyone lingering in the 30s perform much better against a candidate who is over 50%. California statewide polling is a good example of this.

Undecideds do not all go one way lmao.
Otherwise I could say "look Biden is only at 44% in Michigan, he's gonna lose it by double digits!"

In some cases they do break heavily toward one candidate. Stuck in the low 30s the best Trump could do is probably scrape 40%. But of course you all think he's winning California because Biden hasn't cracked 60% in any polling there so talking to Trump supporters is like talking to a brick wall. DC is on the table for you people.

The more realistic concern is something like Republicans holding in the 13th and 22nd if Trump performs well enough although Valadao is not endorsing him.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Trump in the 30s is the relevant number to look at. That contradicts the idea that he's improving with Hispanic voters.

In literally no presidential election has it been useful to look at the actual % number voting for someone. It's the margin.

If we're going by that method then Biden is bound to lose in a landslide "47% of Arizona latinos won't vote for Biden!!!"

It is useful when Trump's base numbers are been predictable for the most part. And that doesn't even account for how he was overestimated to varying degrees in primary polling. This polling points to Trump losing that Hispanic vote in these states between 64-36 and 66-34.

Uh no it doesn't???

There's no reason you should assume Trump's number stays where it is but Biden picks up literally every undecided.

Duh, yes it does. Rarely doesn't anyone lingering in the 30s perform much better against a candidate who is over 50%. California statewide polling is a good example of this.

Undecideds do not all go one way lmao.
Otherwise I could say "look Biden is only at 44% in Michigan, he's gonna lose it by double digits!"

In some cases they do break heavily toward one candidate. Stuck in the low 30s the best Trump could do is probably scrape 40%. But of course you all think he's winning California because Biden hasn't cracked 60% in any polling there so talking to Trump supporters is like talking to a brick wall. DC is on the table for you people.

You do realize my point also goes against people wo think Biden will lose California.
My argument is that undecideds never break all one way, something that is common sense.

[DrScholl]

What was your prediction for the Wisconsin margin in 2020?
That would prove whether you just always predict democrats overperform or if you actually are good at predictions.

I don't make predictions down to the numbers, I predict outcomes.

[Vern]

Trump in the 30s is the relevant number to look at. That contradicts the idea that he's improving with Hispanic voters.

In literally no presidential election has it been useful to look at the actual % number voting for someone. It's the margin.

If we're going by that method then Biden is bound to lose in a landslide "47% of Arizona latinos won't vote for Biden!!!"

It is useful when Trump's base numbers are been predictable for the most part. And that doesn't even account for how he was overestimated to varying degrees in primary polling. This polling points to Trump losing that Hispanic vote in these states between 64-36 and 66-34.

Uh no it doesn't???

There's no reason you should assume Trump's number stays where it is but Biden picks up literally every undecided.

Duh, yes it does. Rarely doesn't anyone lingering in the 30s perform much better against a candidate who is over 50%. California statewide polling is a good example of this.

Undecideds do not all go one way lmao.
Otherwise I could say "look Biden is only at 44% in Michigan, he's gonna lose it by double digits!"

You can’t debate people who have lost touch with reality. And most people on Atlas have lost touch with reality. They are stuck in their bubble.

I'm one of the few people here who actually got the 2022 midterm election right and never bought into those predictions of Republicans winning 40+ seats in the House. You probably don't even think Trump lost in 2020 so who really is out of touch with reality?

I know Trump lost in 2020 and never have stated he did. But nice try. Also, lets make one thing clear, I am in no way a Trump fan. I just look at facts and the facts are pointing to Trump winning. And if you say different you have lost touch with reality.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

Trump in the 30s is the relevant number to look at. That contradicts the idea that he's improving with Hispanic voters.

In literally no presidential election has it been useful to look at the actual % number voting for someone. It's the margin.

If we're going by that method then Biden is bound to lose in a landslide "47% of Arizona latinos won't vote for Biden!!!"

It is useful when Trump's base numbers are been predictable for the most part. And that doesn't even account for how he was overestimated to varying degrees in primary polling. This polling points to Trump losing that Hispanic vote in these states between 64-36 and 66-34.

Uh no it doesn't???

There's no reason you should assume Trump's number stays where it is but Biden picks up literally every undecided.

Duh, yes it does. Rarely doesn't anyone lingering in the 30s perform much better against a candidate who is over 50%. California statewide polling is a good example of this.

Undecideds do not all go one way lmao.
Otherwise I could say "look Biden is only at 44% in Michigan, he's gonna lose it by double digits!"

Also third party will be bigger this year than in 2020 so looking at vote share is useless.

[DrScholl]

Trump in the 30s is the relevant number to look at. That contradicts the idea that he's improving with Hispanic voters.

In literally no presidential election has it been useful to look at the actual % number voting for someone. It's the margin.

If we're going by that method then Biden is bound to lose in a landslide "47% of Arizona latinos won't vote for Biden!!!"

It is useful when Trump's base numbers are been predictable for the most part. And that doesn't even account for how he was overestimated to varying degrees in primary polling. This polling points to Trump losing that Hispanic vote in these states between 64-36 and 66-34.

Uh no it doesn't???

There's no reason you should assume Trump's number stays where it is but Biden picks up literally every undecided.

Duh, yes it does. Rarely doesn't anyone lingering in the 30s perform much better against a candidate who is over 50%. California statewide polling is a good example of this.

Undecideds do not all go one way lmao.
Otherwise I could say "look Biden is only at 44% in Michigan, he's gonna lose it by double digits!"

You can’t debate people who have lost touch with reality. And most people on Atlas have lost touch with reality. They are stuck in their bubble.

I'm one of the few people here who actually got the 2022 midterm election right and never bought into those predictions of Republicans winning 40+ seats in the House. You probably don't even think Trump lost in 2020 so who really is out of touch with reality?

I know Trump lost in 2020 and never have stated he did. But nice try. Also, lets make one thing clear, I am in no way a Trump fan. I just look at facts and the facts are pointing to Trump winning. And if you say different you have lost touch with reality.

Polls are not facts, they are random samples that don't always line up with the end result of an election and that has been more and more common over the years. The FACTS are that Republicans have massively underperformed in real races and your guy Trump was overestimated in primary polling and he posted some very underwhelming margins in suburban counties. The polls aren't lining up with reality. End of debate.

[Vern]

Trump in the 30s is the relevant number to look at. That contradicts the idea that he's improving with Hispanic voters.

In literally no presidential election has it been useful to look at the actual % number voting for someone. It's the margin.

If we're going by that method then Biden is bound to lose in a landslide "47% of Arizona latinos won't vote for Biden!!!"

It is useful when Trump's base numbers are been predictable for the most part. And that doesn't even account for how he was overestimated to varying degrees in primary polling. This polling points to Trump losing that Hispanic vote in these states between 64-36 and 66-34.

Uh no it doesn't???

There's no reason you should assume Trump's number stays where it is but Biden picks up literally every undecided.

Duh, yes it does. Rarely doesn't anyone lingering in the 30s perform much better against a candidate who is over 50%. California statewide polling is a good example of this.

Undecideds do not all go one way lmao.
Otherwise I could say "look Biden is only at 44% in Michigan, he's gonna lose it by double digits!"

You can’t debate people who have lost touch with reality. And most people on Atlas have lost touch with reality. They are stuck in their bubble.

I'm one of the few people here who actually got the 2022 midterm election right and never bought into those predictions of Republicans winning 40+ seats in the House. You probably don't even think Trump lost in 2020 so who really is out of touch with reality?

I know Trump lost in 2020 and never have stated he did. But nice try. Also, lets make one thing clear, I am in no way a Trump fan. I just look at facts and the facts are pointing to Trump winning. And if you say different you have lost touch with reality.

Polls are not facts, they are random samples that don't always line up with the end result of an election and that has been more and more common over the years. The FACTS are that Republicans have massively underperformed in real races and your guy Trump was overestimated in primary polling and he posted some very underwhelming margins in suburban counties. The polls aren't lining up with reality. End of debate.

You do realize a lot of Democrats voted in these Republican primaries against Trump. And the facts I was talking about has nothing to do with polling. The facts I am talking about is how we are currently facing  high inflation, an housing market that is horrible. Wars everywhere in the world. How most American are struggling to make ends meet because of food prices and gas prices. How Biden is as unpopular as Carter was. And Biden is lucky that the Republicans were stupid enough to pick Trump again. Because against anyone else he would lose crazy bad. But because it’s Trump he still has a small chance due to all of Trumps craziness.